Will there be a 70% chance of precipitation?

The probability of precipitation is 70%, and it may not rain.

Precipitation probability refers to the probability of rain in a certain area today. The probability of rain is this number within the forecast time and regional scope. A probability of 70 means that there is a 70% probability that it will rain in a certain area at some time. If it is 100%, it will definitely rain. In fact, the weather forecast is not 100%, especially in hot summer, when extreme weather occurs frequently, there are often sudden rainstorms. As the old saying goes, there are clouds in the sky, and the weather forecast can only be a probability forecast.

Precipitation probability forecast refers to the percentage of precipitation opportunities in a certain area and a certain period of time predicted by forecasters based on various meteorological data after sorting, analyzing, judging and discussing. The calculation of precipitation probability forecast is actually whether it is precipitation or not, which is related to the variation law of precipitation itself and the characteristics of meteorological elements.

Actual calculation of precipitation probability

The calculation of precipitation probability forecast is actually whether it is precipitation or not, which is related to the variation law of precipitation itself and the characteristics of meteorological elements. By analyzing the data of various meteorological elements and using the principle of statistical calculation, scientists have obtained many equations for predicting precipitation probability, such as the method of predicting precipitation probability with precipitation data and the equation of predicting precipitation probability the next day with pressure, temperature and humidity of the day.

When constructing these equations, we can also use the products of numerical weather forecast. Of course, there are some more complicated forecasting methods. Because the probability forecast only means that there is a certain possibility of a certain weather, and the probability of forecasting precipitation is 30%, when arranging activities, it is necessary to give priority to no rain and make proper preparations for rain; The probability of forecasting precipitation is 60%, and the activities are mainly rainy, supplemented by no rain; The probability of forecasting precipitation is 80%, so be prepared for rain.

The above contents refer to Baidu Encyclopedia-Precipitation Probability.