The population loss in Heilongjiang Province is serious. Why?

In recent years, the problem of population loss in the whole Northeast has been concerned by the society.

However, there is no unified statement on the specific loss, whether official or private.

From a technical point of view, statistics are more difficult. In addition, from an unspeakable point of view, departments that have the ability to conduct statistics will not take this seriously or even mention it. Who would do such a thankless thing?

Take Heilongjiang as an example. Some people say that the total loss in these years is 2 million, while others say that there are more than 200 thousand a year, but there is no reliable source. But the total population of Heilongjiang has indeed changed over the years.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population of Heilongjiang Province in 20 18 was 37.73 million, while the statistical data in 2000 ten years ago was 38.25 million, which should refer to the registered population. Judging from this data, the population has decreased by 520 thousand in ten years, which doesn't seem too much. On the one hand, this decrease is the loss of population, on the other hand, it is closely related to the low fertility rate in Heilongjiang Province.

Because we can't know the total population loss exactly, we can only look for clues in some details.

In order to do this, the author looked up the situation of Harbin, which accounts for nearly one third of the province's population, especially the enrollment of primary school students, and made a brief analysis, hoping to give you a glimpse of some characteristics of the current population flow in Heilongjiang Province.

Why Harbin? Because I found that only the Harbin municipal government has relatively complete statistics in this respect, and it is difficult for other cities in the province to get open and effective data. Of course, as a provincial capital city, being able to do this is not worthy of being happy, but should also be happy.

Look at the table below. This is the enrollment of Harbin from 1996 to 20 15.

Why from 1996? Because this year Songhua River area was merged into Harbin. After these years, although there have been internal adjustments in administrative divisions, including the newly established Songbei District, the county reform area and the merger of some districts, the overall administrative jurisdiction has not changed much.

Why only to 20 15? Sorry, the authoritative data published by the author in Harbin is only this year. But this does not affect the analysis of the whole trend.

1996, there were more than 53,000 pupils in Harbin (including counties and county-level cities), while in 20 15, there were only 74,000 students in Harbin, almost less than half. The extent of this decline is amazing. Of course, 20 14 is even worse, with only 67 thousand people.

Moreover, it can be seen that since the new millennium, the annual number of primary school students has dropped to 65,438+10,000, and has never returned.

If the average age of 6-7 years old goes to primary school, the number of locally born children will decrease, which are 1993 and 1994 respectively.

What is the reason? It's puzzling.

After reading the overall situation, it is also very interesting to look at the number of students enrolled in urban areas and counties and cities under the jurisdiction of the city.

From 1996 to 2003, the number of students enrolled in cities and towns generally showed a downward trend, but from 2004, the number of students enrolled began to increase.

Why is this happening?

It's actually quite simple. Since 2004, the administrative divisions of Harbin have been adjusted. Originally, it was District 7 12 county (city), and Songbei District was established, and Hulan County was changed to Hulan District, becoming District 8 1 1 county and city. In 2006, Electric Power and Xiangfang merged, and Acheng was separated from the city and divided into districts, becoming 8 districts 10 counties and cities. In 20 14, the two cities were divided into districts, and Harbin governed 9 districts and 9 counties.

At the same time, the enrollment of primary schools in counties and cities under the jurisdiction of Harbin has been far away from supermarkets, accounting for the majority of the total enrollment. 1 10000 in 1996, but it suddenly dropped to about 60,000 in 2004, with a very rapid decline rate, but the proportion has not changed much and still accounts for the majority. By 20 13, the number of primary school students in cities has surpassed that in counties and cities, and the range has been increasing since then.

The author believes that this is related to the withdrawal of counties or cities, and on the other hand, it should be caused by the influx of people from counties and cities into Harbin, which should be the main factor. In the new residential areas represented by Haxi, Liqun and Songbei, there are not a few counties and cities that rely on buying houses to study. But the exact number is unknown. I believe that people living in these areas should have personal experience.

As a sub-provincial city with a population of10 million, Harbin's total population has not changed much in the past 20 years, basically maintaining at around 6,543,800+million, but the number of primary school students has dropped from 6,543,800+0,500 to 670,000 now, which is actually quite telling.