Before a large number of new grains were listed, the purchase price of enterprises began to adjust: Is there too much wheat?

According to the latest news of daily grain and oil, although the new season wheat in domestic producing areas has not been listed in large quantities in 2022, the purchase price of large flour enterprises from the main producing areas has begun to adjust.

According to the latest data, Jinsha River in Hebei Province recently adjusted the purchase price of new season wheat to Shahe Company 1.565 yuan/kg and Nanhe Company 1.57 yuan/kg.

In addition, the latest price of wheat in the new season of Yueyang COFCO trade is Nanliang Company 1.5 yuan/kg, China Textile Agricultural Hubei Company 1.48 yuan/kg.

In fact, as a bulk agricultural product, when new grain is listed every year, due to the short listing time and large quantity, the market will have a staged oversupply and the price will go down.

Therefore, the domestic wheat price is the lowest during the centralized listing period of new grain every year. Then, with the centralized listing of new grain in June 5438+ 10, the price began to rise gradually, often reaching its peak in March-April of the following year.

Take this year's wheat price as an example, the highest price once exceeded 1.7 yuan, setting a record high.

Of course, for most people, people are more interested in the current silage wheat incident.

First of all, talk about the silage wheat incident.

As we know, the wheat planting in China is mainly winter wheat, which is sown around the National Day every year and harvested in May and June of the following year. The main producing areas are concentrated in Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Hebei in Huanghuai area, and Jiangsu and northern Hubei in the south.

At present, the wheat in Hubei and Anhui has been harvested and listed sporadically, and the price is around 1.4- 1.5 yuan. Even low-quality feed wheat can reach about 1.35 yuan per catty. At this price, the price of the flour mill transported to the north is basically around 1.6 yuan. Earlier, we also mentioned the current wheat purchase in Jinsha River.

Because of the main northern wheat producing areas such as Henan and Hebei, wheat is still in the critical filling stage and not yet mature.

However, many new media platforms have recently pushed a lot of information about silage wheat, because the price tag is 1500-2000 yuan per mu, which is much better than the normal wheat planting benefit, so it has spread widely and attracted the official collection.

According to the information we collected, on May 9, the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department of Henan Province directly requested that all incidents of silage wheat be strictly prohibited. Later, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document, pointing out that it is necessary to conduct a detailed investigation and analysis of the occurrence of silage wheat, focusing on cracking down on the destruction of wheat and the spread of false short videos, stopping reporting at the first time, and informing the responsible person of the relevant handling situation.

Before we give our own interpretation, let me show you some ideas:

First, let's look at the report from Yang Guang. com。

Yang pointed out that whether farmers "cut green wheat for feed" or collect wheat to sell grain, in the final analysis, it is an economic account.

The fundamental reason is that the profit of selling silage wheat at the price of 1500 yuan is much higher than that of grain wheat.

However, Yang Guang pointed this out later. Com believes that letting "cut green wheat as feed" go unchecked will inevitably lead to a decline in the overall yield of wheat and pose a threat to national food security.

From the perspective of food security, "cutting green wheat for feed" must be treated with zero tolerance.

The national through train from China News Service interprets this question from another angle: Who is harvesting silage wheat?

In fact, we also feel strange. In the previous broadcast, we always suspected that this was a fake video.

According to CCTV's latest report, the rising price of silage wheat in Henan Province is mainly due to the high price of silage corn, which has now risen to one ton in 800 yuan. In addition, last year, corn production in Henan Province was reduced due to floods, which led to insufficient feed for breeding enterprises, but the long-distance transportation cost of feed was high, so silage wheat was purchased nearby.

However, at present, in view of the authenticity of the incident, the Ministry of Agriculture has asked all localities to check and implement the information provided by the short video to see if it is a fake video shooting or true.

Next, let's see how farmers view this problem.

As far as the limited information we have obtained at present is concerned, among the more than 1000 messages received before, except for a few messages that silage wheat should be eliminated from the perspective of food security, most of the other messages think that farmers have the freedom to choose to sell their own wheat. If it is really 1500 mu, they will choose to sell it at the first time.

First of all, the current sale of silage wheat can free up planting time for corn in advance; Secondly, there are more than 20 days before the wheat is fully mature, during which the weather is often changeable. In case of heavy rain, the yield will be reduced, the quality of wheat will also be affected, and it will not sell at a high price; Third, although the price of wheat is relatively high now, who can guarantee the price after a large number of wheat are listed? Moreover, at present, the price of new wheat is the price sent to the flour mill, and many farmers often choose to sell it to intermediate grain merchants. The price is much lower, and the gross income can't reach 1500 yuan.

Finally, as for the opinions of other experts, I won't list them here.

So, what do we think of this problem?

We think there may be such a thing as silage wheat on the internet, but it does not represent the mainstream of the market, nor does it represent the actual situation of the market.

I don't know if you have seen Li's video, but I watch it several times a day. The first time I saw it, it felt really good, much like my hometown life in my memory. When I saw it for the third time, I felt that I was immortal and envied this life too much.

This is a new media video-you think it is real, because people do it in the camera, and it can also vaguely coincide with some beautiful parts of your memory; You are envious because it is difficult for you to reach such a state in real life. It is for people like you and me. In real life, it cannot be said that no one will live like that, but at least 99.9% people can't live like that.

This is probably how the video of silage wheat is released-only, unlike Li who leads people to recall the beauty that does not exist in memory, the video of silage wheat conveys an anxiety. What kind of anxiety?

Food prices are too low!

As for the grain price, we also had a small discussion ourselves. We found that in the late 1990s, the price of wheat had reached more than one yuan, and then fluctuated between 1 and 1.2 yuan for most of the past 30 years, until last year, there was a significant increase.

Therefore, if we compare it horizontally with other commodities, we will find that the price of grain lags far behind the prices of other commodities-this is the reality that was ignited by the video of silage wheat.

So is the food price high in China?

In fact, we will find that many farmers have retained their feelings for food in the last century.

At that time, a family only had four or five acres of land, but it could support the daily living expenses of a family, even if it was slightly insufficient, it would not be too bad.

However, with the development of social economy, the situation of raising a family on five acres of land has been broken. People suddenly found that everything sold around seemed to be rising in price, but the price of food did not.

We don't know how to express this situation, because objectively speaking, the price of bicycles is definitely much cheaper now than it was 20 years ago, and the Crown sedan has also changed from a luxury car to an intermediate car. In the past, a 10,000-yuan computer can be configured at around 2,000 yuan, and its performance is unparalleled.

So we think this is a kind of loss in the development of the times. Instead of saying that food prices are not rising, people are spending more and more money now, and the pressure to earn money is getting bigger and bigger, which makes people want to return to the state of supporting their families on five acres of land.

In fact, Li's video contains such a memory.

But in real life, our income from farming has declined, while our income from working has increased. Our previous dreams were lights and telephones, upstairs and downstairs. Now?

If you look closely, you will find that "light telephone" has long been eliminated and traffic jams have begun to appear in rural areas.

10 years ago, you might think that Hong Kong was a paradise, but now you will unconsciously feel that our country is really rich, and many lives that you never dreamed of before are coming true.

Of course, from a practical point of view, except for a few countries such as Japan and South Korea, the food price in China is not lower than that in any other country.

Up to now, China has implemented tariff quota management for wheat, corn and rice, including 9.636 million tons for wheat, 7.2 million tons for corn and 5.32 million tons for rice. Once the import exceeds these quantities, the import tariff will soar to more than 65%, in order to ensure that the food grown by domestic farmers will not be impacted by the international market.

Therefore, when we dare to think more and more, dare to do more and more, and need to spend more money, more and more people begin to feel that money is not easy to earn-in fact, if we deduce it in turn, we need more and need to spend more.

Therefore, a large number of forwarded silage wheat videos, whether true or false, are really putting pressure on our grain production and making our farmers' friends dissatisfied with food prices.

More realistically, since last year, China's grain imports have increased in an all-round way, with corn, wheat and other grains increasing the most, with imports reaching 65.376 million tons, a sharp increase of 82.7% year-on-year.

It is conceivable that if there are more and more farmers who are dissatisfied with food prices and are unwilling to farm, when we really start importing a lot of food, how much will the price rise.

We won't do much about other interpretations, but we can give you a data:

In Africa, where wheat consumption has increased in recent years, the wheat price in this region has increased by 60% due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine this year. At the same time, India exported a record 6.5438+0.4 million tons of wheat in April this year, which is 50-60% of the annual export level in previous years. It is not that Indian wheat is cheap or popular in quality, but that there are more and more wheat available for export in the world, making Indian wheat with poor quality and high price a hot potato.

Looking around further, although the global edible oil price has risen to a historical high, as the world's largest vegetable oil exporter, it still restricts its export on the grounds that the domestic price has not fallen back to the expected position.

This is food. When it is rich, you think everything is more expensive than it. When it is scarce, you may not be able to buy it with money.

Therefore, the problem of food price is a value distribution problem behind closed doors. What we are facing now is how to develop the economy to provide more jobs and solve the problems of farmers' pension, medical care and education. When these problems are solved, food prices will naturally not be a problem.

Therefore, for the silage wheat incident, our simple logical analysis holds that:

At present, the domestic food supply is already relatively tight, and any behavior that damages the food supply is short-sighted.

Last year, we used wheat instead of corn in feed, and this year we will use silage wheat instead of silage corn. This is how the bottom line is broken step by step. When more and more grain is used as feed under a reasonable explanation, it will gradually evolve into a habit, which will also make the food supply more and more tight, and the cost of grain purchase for low-income groups will become higher and higher.

Finally, spit out some problems in daily grain and oil operations, which can be directly ignored just to obtain information.

During the live broadcast today, some fans asked us how to realize it. In fact, what we mainly get at present is platform traffic support, and there is no means to realize it. This is also the main reason why we have been unable to work full time.

Of course, even so, this year is the sixth year of daily grain and oil operation, and we know it well. Of course, some people may have taken us in the last two years, but please believe us. We can stick to the first six years and the last six years in this silence.

As for those who dislike us and think that we are floating, nothing is floating, and we have never tried to please anyone.

That's all. Goodbye, please!

As for the others, the so-called self-treasure, we are really operating well, and we hope to operate well with our own efforts.

Today, a dynamic can cause thousands of comments, which is really beyond our expectation. Thanks again to those who have been collecting and supporting us.