Is it really expensive to build new energy vehicles? Without state subsidies, we will die?

On August 1 1, the 12th China Automotive Blue Book Forum opened in Wuhan Development Zone. This is the first heavyweight automobile forum held by China automobile industry after the COVID-19 epidemic, which attracted more than 200 famous entrepreneurs in the automobile industry, including Xu Liuping, chairman and party secretary of China FAW, Zhu Yanfeng, chairman and chairman of Dongfeng Motor Group, Cao, founder and chairman of Fuyao Glass, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai Automobile, covering most links in the automobile industry chain.

As we all know, this year, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the sales of many domestic car companies have fallen sharply, and the whole car consumption market is full of sorrow. According to the sales data of the first half of this year (from June to June, the automobile production and sales decreased by 16.8% and 15.8% respectively), among which, 9 automobile companies sold 0, 16 automobile companies sold less than 100 vehicles, and 34 automobile companies sold less than/kloc-0. China auto market showed downward pressure on the first line, contraction on the second line and exit from the tail.

At the same time, with the rolling forward of the "new four modernizations of automobiles", the continuous influx of cross-border forces, and the promotion of new energy subsidies and the liberalization of joint-stock ratio, the whole industry is now in a changeable, multidimensional and diversified state, full of challenges and uncertainties.

Therefore, this year's speeches by auto industry leaders have attracted more attention than ever before. The biggest topic of this forum is the development of new energy vehicles.

0 1, Cao: New energy vehicles are made by rich people like Xu Jiayin.

At the forum, Cao, the founder and chairman of Fuyao Glass, said: "The new energy was invented by Edison, and now it is called an electric car. That's the direction, and it was made by a rich man like Xu Jiayin. Capital tycoons can do this. Relying entirely on state subsidies is waiting for death, and it must be done without state subsidies. "

The language is shocking!

Cao Wangde's statement is not unreasonable. Since the decline of new energy subsidies in June last year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has been declining for 12 months, and it did not resume growth until July this year. From June 5438 to July this year, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 32.8% year-on-year to 486,000 vehicles, accounting for 3.93% of the total car sales.

A new force that has left or will leave the car.

The decline in sales of new energy vehicles is unfortunate not only for car companies, but also for supporting industries.

Also at the forum, Zeng Yuquan, the chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., was very anxious. He said, "The world's first market for electric vehicles will be taken away by Europe this year. Let's not get up early and catch up late! "

02, is it really expensive to build new energy vehicles? Without state subsidies, we are waiting to die?

At present, the sales giants of new energy vehicles in China are BAIC and BYD.

According to the 20 19 annual report disclosed by BAIC Blue Valley, the operating income of BAIC Blue Valley was 23.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 92,065,438+0.065,438+0 million, up 25.54% year-on-year.

However, the net profit of Beiqi Blue Valley after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was a loss of 874 million yuan. Among them, the largest income of non-recurring profit and loss items is government subsidy, with the amount of 10438+0 billion yuan.

The 20 19 annual report disclosed by BYD shows that BYD achieved operating income of1277.39 billion yuan last year, down1.78% year-on-year; Net profit161400 million yuan, down 4 1.93% year-on-year. Among them, the government subsidy included in the current profit and loss is 65.438+0.483 billion yuan.

The government subsidies in Beiqi Blue Valley and BYD's financial reports are mainly subsidies for new energy vehicles provided by the government.

The generous special subsidy of the central government aims to help the new energy automobile industry, which is still in its infancy, get on the right track as soon as possible and reduce the economic burden of consumers buying new energy vehicles.

However, because the subsidy method is too extensive, all enterprises want to enter the field of new energy vehicles and share a bowl of soup in the dividend period of the development of new energy vehicles.

But the reality is cruel. As soon as the subsidy is withdrawn, the sales of new energy vehicles will decline, and a large number of new energy vehicle enterprises will retire.

Cao said that all new energy vehicles were made by rich people like Xu Jiayin, not to say that Evergrande's new energy road will be smooth sailing, but just to tell you that new energy vehicles are still burning money at this stage, and it is impossible for car companies that have been subsidized by the state to survive.

03, when will the money burn?

Mao Shu, vice president of Toyota Motor Corporation, was asked by the media at the 20 19 Tokyo Motor Show, "Why did Toyota launch pure electric vehicles so late?"

He replied: "Because pure electric vehicles don't make money."

C-HR fuel version, guide price:14.18-18.08? Wan; C-HR？ EV, subsidy price: 225,800-249,800.

New energy vehicles don't make money now, but rely on subsidies. The main reason is that the battery cost is too high.

In the round-table discussion with the theme of "Evolution of Power Battery Pattern and Technical Route", Wang Jun, Chairman and General Manager of Funeng Technology, Wang Nianju, Executive Vice President of Tianjin Li Shen Battery, Yang Hongxin, President of Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xu Xiaoming, General Manager of Anchi Technology, agreed that by 2025, the price of ternary lithium battery will be about 0.5 yuan /Wh, and that of lithium iron phosphate battery will be about 0.4 yuan /Wh, which is more than half lower than the current price.

Deer inquires about ternary lithium battery, which is about 2.28 yuan /Wh in 20 15 years and 0.85 yuan /Wh in 2020. In five years, the cost of batteries has dropped by 63%.

20 15 based on the battery capacity of a bicycle of 40kWh, the battery cost of a bicycle is about 90,000 yuan, accounting for about 40% of the whole vehicle price.

In 2020, based on the battery capacity of 50kWh bicycle, the cost of bicycle is about 42,500 yuan, accounting for about 25% of the whole vehicle price.

When the power consumption is increased by 25%, the cost is reduced by 50%, but the new energy vehicle is still expensive.

If the battery cost really drops to 0.4 yuan /Wh by 2025 as the bosses say.

In 2025, based on the battery capacity of 50kWh bicycle, the battery cost is about 25,000 yuan, accounting for about 15% of the whole vehicle price.

By then, new energy vehicles can indeed achieve parity with fuel vehicles.

An employee in charge of purchasing in a car company also told Deer that their company purchases batteries and sets prices with power battery suppliers once every quarter.

In the foreseeable future, the reduction of battery cost will bring huge price reduction space for the whole vehicle. However, this also reflects from the side that the battery cost is really too high at this stage, and it will still be the stage of burning money in the next three to five years.

▲ Xu Jiayin said at the press conference that he planned to invest 45 billion yuan in three years. What is the concept of 45 billion? Weilai Automobile spent about 654.38+072 billion in three years; The unfinished Baiteng cost about 8.4 billion yuan. In this case, Evergrande burned 45 billion yuan in three years, which is really emboldened!

Write it at the end

Most of the speakers of the forum are entrepreneurs and insiders, who look at the issue of new energy vehicles from the perspective of the industry and enterprises themselves. But from the consumer's point of view, although there are many advantages of electric vehicles, there are many disadvantages of electric vehicles.

The longer the cruising range of electric vehicles, the larger the batteries and the higher the price, which is not suitable for ordinary consumers. Cars with short cruising range are cheap, but they need to be recharged frequently, which is very inconvenient.

Buying a fuel car is like doing a verbal problem. Weigh how much it will cost, just look at the power and space.

Buying a pure electric car will suddenly become an Olympic math problem. You should consider battery life, your daily travel needs, the reduction of cruising range in different weather conditions, whether you can install charging piles at home, how big the current of charging piles is, if you can't install charging piles, whether there are charging piles nearby, whether the charging price of charging piles is expensive or not, and whether it is good to park them.

No wonder some people call electric cars "electric dads". In terms of freedom of travel, electric vehicles can't compare with fuel vehicles, and most urban consumers may buy electric vehicles for only one reason-limited licensing. Of course, it is not excluded that someone intends to buy an electric car in the second car at home.

Words? |? Lu Xiaofeng

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.