Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Weather forecast - Ecological destruction will affect the sanitary environment (health). What? How to take preventive measures?
Ecological destruction will affect the sanitary environment (health). What? How to take preventive measures?
Keywords: climate change; Global warming; Human health;
Climate change is a long-term process that reflects the change of atmospheric conditions, and it is a constantly changing and complex process. Its main feature is to change the composition of different periods by changing the cold, warm or dry and wet atmosphere, as well as the alternation of cold, warm or dry and wet atmosphere with different length of time. The period of change is not critical. After a period of time, there is usually no symmetrical winding stage, and the length of different periods can vary greatly. As a natural resource for human survival, the natural environment is an important part of human society, and they are closely related. Extreme abnormal weather phenomena caused by global climate change, such as drought, flood, frost, hail, sandstorm, urban rainstorm waterlogging, lightning and other serious natural disasters, have a serious impact on sustainable human settlements and social development, and have a serious impact on human ecological environment, human society and human health. In addition, global warming has a direct impact on the earth's ecosystem and is harmful to human living environment and human health. The level of human health is a comprehensive reflection of a country's social environment, natural environment, material living standard and public welfare level.
About/>; The climate of the world and China in the past century.
& ltBr Global warming is undergoing significant changes, with global warming as the main feature, which will continue to have a significant impact on the global and China ecosystems, social economy and human health.
In 20001year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme published its third assessment report. According to the report, since 1860, the global average surface temperature has been 0.6℃ 0.2℃, which is the warmest in the last 20 years 100. The warmest in the 1990s, 1000, 10 year. Under the background of global warming, the climate in China has changed significantly in the last century, mainly in the following aspects: the trend is basically consistent with the global climate change in the last century, and the temperature in China has increased by 0.4℃-0.5℃ in the last century. Geographically, the temperature rise in China, North China, Northeast China and Northwest China is the most significant. Judging from the seasonal distribution, the temperature rise in winter is the most obvious. According to the latest data from the National Climate Center, since 2004, the high temperature in China has generally been higher than that in the same period of last year, making it a "foregone conclusion" to have a warm winter, which means that we have experienced the first 19 continuous warm winter in the past 50 countries.
(a) Adverse effects of global warming (closely related to human health)
1, the frequency and intensity of heat wave increase.
> according to the statistics of Japanese scientists, in the past 100 years, the annual average temperature of the earth increased by 0.7℃, the average temperature of cities increased by 23℃, and the temperature in Tokyo increased by 7℃ during this period. In Japan, the night when the temperature exceeds 25℃ is called "hot night". Fifty years ago, there were less than five "hot nights" in Tokyo every year; From 196 1 to 1970, the average is14.9; From 198 1 to 1990, the "hot night" increased to 23.8. During Osaka 199 1 and 2000 10, the annual "hot night" changed from extreme maximum temperature to Beijing 1940 to 2002 for 38 times.
(see table 1), and the upper limit is 1940. The temperature in summer of beijing is very high, 42.6 degrees Celsius. Then there is a downward trend, from the lowest 38.5℃ in 80 years to 4 1.9℃ in 90 years.
Table 1 Extreme Maximum Temperature in Summer in Beijing
1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 1980 1989 65438.
Extreme value 42.6 39.6 40.140.3 38.541.941.1.
According to the analysis of high temperature in Shanghai and Guangzhou, Chinese scientists found that due to the global warming, the annual high temperature weather in Shanghai (maximum temperature ≥34℃) is 12D/A now and 15.7d/a in the future. The annual hot weather in Guangzhou is now 24.7 days/year, and it will be 36.0 days/year in the future.
2. El Nino
The IPCC's third climate change assessment report pointed out that compared with the past 100 years, since the 1970s, El Nino? Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are more frequent, more persistent and more intense (IPCC Working Group I Third Assessment Report, 200 1). The severity of serious El Nino events from 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998 doubled, and extreme weather events occurred frequently all over the world, causing great disasters to mankind.
3. The urban heat island effect is more obvious.
According to statistics, the maximum heat island intensity (urban-rural temperature difference) observed in Beijing 1997 is1℃ (6.8℃ higher than that in Shanghai, second only to Vancouver, Berlin 1 1℃ and Germany13. There are many factors that produce the heat island effect, not the cause, but the result of a region. Global warming is one of the reasons for the increase of temperature difference in suburbs.
(2) Global warming
Impact on human health
1, the influence of climate warming on disease epidemic situation
Human health is closely related to human survival. Climate and environment, climate disasters and climate change directly affect human health, and extreme weather events are even more surprising. Due to global warming, extreme weather events will become more frequent, and the threat of climate disasters to human life and health will increase. Many insects spread by infectious diseases are very sensitive to climate change. For example, global warming will aggravate the spread of malaria and dengue fever. According to statistics, with global warming, malaria and dengue fever alone will harm 40% of the world's population. The most important thing is the extinction of species caused by climate change, and some old ones will inevitably produce new species. Changing species may break the existing patterns of viruses, bacteria, parasites and allergens and produce new varieties. For example, in the spring of 2003, SARS virus broke out in Guangdong, Beijing, Shanxi and other places in China, which did great harm to people's health and life.
The ecosystem affected by global warming brings another danger, that is, it may activate a new virus. The research report of the World Health Organization confirms that at least 30 new infectious diseases have emerged in the past 20 years. Most researchers believe that the study of emerging viruses: the emergence of new viruses may be the destruction of the environment by human beings, climate change, the destruction of virus nests, the unknown viruses in the closed world that originally lived in wild animals, and new viruses will be continuously discovered in the process of human activities.
Global warming and extreme weather and climate events have also brought a strong impact on the ecological balance, especially the microecological balance, which is highlighted by the changed infectious pathogens, changes, media distribution and the survival characteristics of insect breeding epidemics. The spread of some infectious diseases will play a role in fueling the situation. When mosquitoes bite infected people, the virus will enter with the blood of healthy people. In a certain temperature range, with the increase of temperature, the transmission rate and mosquito bite rate are greatly improved, which can improve the regeneration rate and virus maturity rate in vivo. For example, at 20℃, it takes 26 days for the bacteria of Plasmodium falciparum to mature, and at 25℃, it only takes 13 days. The bacteria carried by mosquitoes have a life span of only a few weeks for children, so excessive temperature will greatly increase the possibility of the spread of this bacteria. At the same time, due to the high temperature phenomenon, the temperature rises at night and in winter, which greatly prolongs the life span of mosquitoes and areas, and makes the spread of malaria depend on the increase in the incidence of infectious diseases and malignant tumors such as scarlet fever, jaundice and encephalitis.
Warming will lead to the change of climate zone, the boundary will be extended to tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence of infectious pathogens in tropical regions will be extended to temperate regions. For example,? Since 1980s, tsutsugamushi disease in southern China has been deeply affected by the northward movement of geographical regions. Shandong province's epidemic report telephone number 1986 covers the area of tsutsugamushi disease epidemic area. In the geographical area of Tianjin, the north latitude advances by 4 degrees, which are 1989 and 1990 respectively, and the annual average temperature of scrub typhus in Tianjin increases by 1.3 1.7℃. Based on this, it is estimated that under the influence of global warming, the possible trend of tsutsugamushi disease nationwide distribution has emerged. In the summer of 2002, "West Nile" virus was in the United States. Experts analyzed that the virus spread so fast, mainly because the weather was hot and dry. West Nile virus was isolated from a woman in West Nile region of Uganda, who emerged in temperate regions of Europe and North America in recent years 1937. In addition, due to climate warming, the range of activities of Rattus flavipectus is not limited to the south of17 N.
2. Heat wave and mortality rate
The most direct impact of global warming on extreme high temperature on human health is the heat generated, which will become more and more frequent and common. The intensity and duration of heat wave increase, mainly due to respiratory diseases or deaths, resulting in heart swelling. With global warming, high temperature weather in summer significantly increases the frequency and intensity of heat waves. In particular, the improvement of humidity and urban air pollution has further aggravated the impact of extreme high temperature in summer on human health. The most direct impact of heat wave on human health is the increase of morbidity and mortality.
In the summer of 2003, the heat wave swept the world, breaking the high temperature record of 3842.6℃. Many old people hurt students. When the heat wave spread to India, Pakistan, Europe, China and India, more than 65,438+0,000 people died from the heat wave. The incidence of heat wave, heart disease and hypertension is also increasing. In addition, global warming will lead to more tropospheric ozone concentration and stratospheric ozone concentration.
High temperature makes germs, bacteria and parasites more active and sensitive, but it also damages people's spirit, immune system and disease resistance, so the number of deaths worldwide exceeds 6.5438+million every year. 1998 Shanghai has experienced heat waves that are 2-3 times as high as those in recent decades, with the largest number of deaths (July 8-20, August 1-3, August 7- 17, August 2 1-23). There is no estrus, and the elderly over 65 die. Heat waves are also a great threat to babies. If the baby suffers from certain diseases, such as diarrhea, respiratory infection and psychological defects, heat waves are most vulnerable to high temperature. In addition to the direct impact, this heatstroke death will also lead to basic diseases or deaths of the heart and respiratory system. Studies have shown that due to global warming, the temperature will increase significantly in summer, and the incidence of heart disease and hypertension will also increase.
In summer, when the temperature is higher than 35℃, temperatures of 38℃, 40℃ or higher often appear. From the end of June to the end of August, 2003, under the influence of subtropical high, rare high temperature weather appeared in southern and southern China. Number of people whose daily maximum temperature is greater than or equal to 35℃ for more than 40 days. The daily maximum temperature in Jiangnan and South China is generally 35℃-38℃, which can reach 38℃-40℃ in some areas and 40℃-43℃ in some areas. Physiologists' research shows that once the temperature rises to 38℃, it is difficult for human sweat glands to maintain normal body temperature and shortness of breath, which not only exhales heat from the lungs, but even accelerates the heart beating and outputs more blood to the body surface to participate in cooling. This is a heart attack, a life-threatening temperature. When the temperature reaches 39℃, sweat glands will fail. Because of work, everything will often fail, so the risk of heart disease is easy to cause convulsions. The temperature of raw food is 40℃, and the high temperature has reached the center of life, leading to brain failure and dizziness. It can be seen that the physiological temperature of human body is very sensitive at high temperature. In 2004, affected by Typhoon Dandelion, subtropical high appeared in southern provinces of China. From late June to July 1 day, the land of Guangdong was shrouded in high temperature weather. The highest temperature in Guangzhou reached 39.7℃, and the highest temperature in Guangzhou reached a record of 38.7℃. On June 28th, a worker in Dalingshan Town, Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, whose workshop was an original furniture factory, fainted in the hospital for more than half an hour due to overwork and high temperature. According to the person in charge of the "120" emergency center in Guangzhou, since this summer, the number of deaths from other diseases caused by high temperature alone has reached 39, and the average number of ambulances dispatched every day (about 200 times) has increased by 66 percentage points. The car crashed into the emergency center at sunrise, setting a record of 10. Taking Beijing as an example, the number of patients hospitalized for high temperature in July increased by 40% compared with that in June. The number of patients with high temperature in Shanghai and Gansu increased, which led to the shortage of blood for clinical use. Outdoor workers such as police, bus drivers and construction workers have also been seriously threatened by the heat wave. At high temperature, it is easy to have serious accidents such as fatigue driving, flat tire and auto spontaneous combustion.
Heat returns to heat, but it also directly affects people's psychology and emotions, making people tired, irritable and angry, and all kinds of accidents have increased relatively, and even the crime rate has increased. In a wave of heat waves, such as the murder in new york in July 1966, it is usually 138.5%. In July 2003, the number of high temperature accidents in Beijing increased. According to the data of Beijing Emergency Center, the increase of traffic accidents has a great relationship with the hot weather. When the temperature is high and the air pressure is low, people's brain tissue and myocardium are the most sensitive, and they are prone to dizziness, irritability and irritability. There are some psychological problems.
3. Nino events and diseases
The new experimental results show that the phenomenon of Nino is closely related to the spread of diseases. The occurrence of El Nino often causes abnormal climate in some areas, which leads to this disease. For example, during the 1982- 1983 Nino incident, the hot weather in northern Pakistan led to drought and malaria; In South America, Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, malaria epidemics have also occurred due to heavy rains. According to scientists, the first year after El Nino? O malaria cases in Venezuela increased by 35. 1%. In this case, the height o of El Nino ranges from 1997 to 1998. During the events in Somalia and Nicaragua, the number of people infected with Rift Valley fever was 89,000, and the death toll was nearly 250? ; Malaria has broken out in large areas in Pakistan, northwestern India, Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Brazil in East Africa? Drought and scarlet fever. In addition, according to the report of El Nino to 1983, in 1982, about10 million people in the world suffered from depression, the incidence of mental illness increased by 8%, and traffic accidents also increased by more than 5,000 times.
4. Air pollution and health
Air pollution is closely related to meteorological conditions. In the context of global warming, environmental and climate anomalies, such as hot summer, warm winter and drought, often cause local air quality. Especially in densely populated cities, due to the existence of urban heat island circulation, pollutants in the air are easy to spread and cause serious pollution.
When pollutants enter the human body in big cities, it will cause discomfort, lead to subclinical and pathological changes, clinical signs or potential genetic effects, acute and chronic poisoning or death. The smog in Maas Valley in Belgium (1930), Donora in the United States (1948) and London (1952) are typical examples of the impact of air pollution.
Due to climate change and human health problems
Since 1960, the world population has doubled, but the catastrophe loss has increased 30 times, from 1960 to 3 billion 1995 to 100 billion. Part of this growth trend was caused by the loss of Andrew in the southern suburb of Miami in 1992, when climate disasters such as typhoons caused a loss of 24 billion dollars. Due to global warming, the potential impact of natural disasters may increase. Assuming that there is no change in temperature or rainfall distribution, global warming will lead to an increase in the incidence of floods and high temperatures. Since floods are usually related to the Southern Oscillation, the possibility of drought aggravation cannot be ruled out. These climate disasters will lead to more forest fires and mudslides. The impact of these disasters on health and society includes death, personal injury, mental trauma and social chaos.
(1) flood
Historically, floods have caused the greatest loss of life. So far, the worst-hit area is the Yellow River in China. 1332,700 people drowned in the subsequent famine and disease, and 1000 people died. 1887 22-meter-high dike destroyed by flood, submerged 100 people. The latest flood occurred in 1930, and one million people were flooded in China. Another11million people may suffer from the subsequent famine. The commerce of the Mississippi River in the United States has been continuously destroyed. The recent flood occurred in the Nordic River, which was caused by the catastrophic floods caused by medieval storms 1973, 1974 and 1993, resulting in more than 654.38+million deaths. 1995 There have been winter floods in the past 200 years, especially in northern Europe. In Australia, this flood became more typical in the 20th century 50 years later. During the La Nina events from 1988 to 1990, the land in eastern Australia 1× suffered severe floods. In addition, it will not only increase the risk of floods, drowning, diarrhea and respiratory diseases in developing countries, but also increase the risk of hunger and malnutrition.
(2)
Drought and drought are both natural disasters related to the most serious and extensive natural disasters in the climate. The droughts in Indian subcontinent 1769, 1790, 1866,1876,1977 and 1943 caused millions of deaths. From 1878 to 1000 people in China suffered from drought-related famine. Many drought events are related to ENSO events. In the case of drought and famine, malnutrition and disease can cause permanent psychological and physical harm. Not all droughts, not all famines caused by droughts. Drought can be seen everywhere, and it affects both developed and developing countries. Although drought may lead to long-term illness, it has little effect on population growth. Because climate warming is an accurate attribute of the world drought cycle, it may reduce the intensity and frequency of thermal drought. For example, although the humidity in eastern Australia has increased by 30% since 1950, the intensity and frequency of drought have not decreased. In fact, the most serious droughts are from 1982 to 1983 and from 199 1 to 1995.
(3) Forest fire
Reading history shows that there have been a lot of forest fires in history. In North America, at least 13 of the historical records burned 40,000 hectares of forest fires. In Wisconsin and Michigan, fires destroyed 1 hectare of forest, killing 2,200 people. 1894, Wisconsin, 19 10 occurred in Idaho and northwest Montana. 188 1 Michigan fire killed hundreds of people; 1894 The Sinclair fire in Minnesota claimed 4 18 lives; 19 18 The crow's wharf fire in Minnesota destroyed 55 1 person. Fires are so common that when people hear the fire alarm and lose their property, they all regard themselves as indifferent.
The decisive factor, the occurrence of forest fire, is the fire source, the amount of highly flammable combustible materials, and the climatic conditions conducive to combustion and spread. After the first two factors of global climate change. Rainfall is an important parameter just a few months before the fire danger period. Rainfall moderately reduces forest fires in spring and early summer, but it provides a large number of bushes, which have a high fire risk in the future. Severe drought in the early days will dry up these plants and increase the amount of combustible materials. Recently, some countries, such as Australia, have caused floods and extreme droughts, which are beneficial to fire prevention in each case. Relatively low humidity and high wind also determine the possibility and intensity of forest fires. Any high-intensity fire depends not only on weather conditions, but also on diseases (or insect-borne diseases) caused by cutting, storm, fire or residues from land before. It is related to high concentration of carbon dioxide, fuel, warm "fertilization amount" and humid weather conditions.
3 mitigation:
Survival in human history is a history of constantly adapting to different climates. The challenges brought by climate change to mankind are inevitable. It is our common responsibility to protect the earth's climate and prevent it from deteriorating with the sustainable development of social economy and human living environment. It is urgent to slow down global warming, vigorously study the relationship between climate change and human health, and establish and improve the monitoring and early warning system for the impact of public health diseases.
1, based on common health diseases and current disease prediction and service based on weather index, research and on-site service are extended to the field of infectious diseases, and a series of products such as short, medium and long-term prediction and early warning services of infectious diseases are carried out.
2. Climate risk assessment and climate zoning of major infectious diseases. The main contents are as follows: (1) to study the propagation and reproduction of diseases, the relationship between process and climate outbreak, and to determine favorable and unfavorable weather and climate conditions; Study on climate assessment of disease model: using GIS technology and integrating environmental databases such as epidemic situation and climate, the disease climate division is carried out, and the key points of seasonal and regional infectious disease prevention and control are determined; Establish an atmosphere of disease monitoring and early warning system and real-time business; Establish the production of information products as a public service and distribution system, and provide rich, accurate, timely and authoritative service products such as disease monitoring, evaluation, prediction, early warning and disease prevention.
3. Study the climate of carrying or transporting small rooms and the breeding and spread of diseases. Climate change, strengthen the development and utilization of natural disaster losses, reduce and improve the research and prediction ability of climate change. You can monitor and predict heat waves. At present, China and even many cities in the world have issued high temperature or high temperature warnings. According to the regulations of China National Meteorological Bureau, the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃, and a high temperature forecast is issued. From June 28th to July 3rd, 2004, Guangdong Meteorological Observatory issued red warning signal for 23 times, which is unprecedented in the meteorological history of Guangdong Province. Therefore, when the summer heat comes, people can use various measures to significantly reduce the impact of heat wave on human health, and gradually improve the heat wave early warning system to effectively adapt.
4. Study the impact of climate change on human health.
Uncertainty draws a relatively small preliminary conclusion, and there are still many uncertain obstacles, which pose a severe challenge to scientists.
1, pay attention to the impact of climate on health.
In epidemiological research, because many factors of climate change are often accompanied by other environmental change tables, their impact on human health is not unique. Through the comprehensive effect of heredity, self-quality, diet, lifestyle, environment and other factors, the key technology of climate change impact on health research is to separate from many factors that affect health.
2. The sensitivity of health is that the current and future changes of global climate change are very complicated.
Some changes in response to human health may or will happen soon. In addition, in the coming decades, climate change, society, economy, population, science and technology, and medical care will all change at the same time, so it is difficult to accurately predict these changes in the coming decades. Therefore, the sensitivity of human health in dealing with climate change is quite complicated, which gives a lot of research on the impact of climate change on human health.
The terrible thing is that only in order to protect the environment, plant trees and save the earth's resources can we avoid damaging the environment.
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