How is the most important weather forecast produced in meteorological work?

1854165438+1October14th, a storm suddenly hit the black sea, with a wind speed of 30 meters per second, causing huge waves on the sea surface. The fleet of British and French allied forces assisted Turkey against Russia at sea and was almost wiped out. Later, the French War Department asked Le freire, director of the Paris Observatory, to study the ins and outs of the storm. He wrote to astronomers and meteorologists from all over the world, asking them to provide meteorological information for several days before and after the storm, and received 250 replies. According to the analysis of these reports, the storm originally came from the Atlantic Ocean and blew from west to east to the Black Sea. Two days before the accident, Spain and France were first affected. If there were weather stations and radio stations there and there were telegrams at that time, if the news of the storm was telegraphed to the British and French fleets as soon as possible, the losses could be reduced.

1855, le freire made a report in the French academy of sciences, saying that if a network of weather stations is established, concentrated in a main weather station by telegraph, analyzed and drawn into a weather map, it is possible to infer the whereabouts of the storm. At that time, society needed weather news. 1856, France established the world's first official weather forecast service system, which was a step forward than using proverbs to make forecasts.

From 65438 to 0856, the Paris Meteorological Bureau printed the weather map of the day every day. From 65438 to 0863, weather forecasts were published in newspapers and periodicals. Soon, other European countries also carried out meteorological work. Starting from 19 14, the data of various countries are brought together to draw a unified weather map of Europe.

In the 1940s, after the invention and application of radiosonde, since then, in addition to collecting the ground data of various meteorological stations at the same time, high-altitude meteorological data have been added. With the high-altitude weather map, the long-wave theory centered on the pressure field and the development theory of the pressure system have emerged, which can predict the weather situation in the next 3-5 days.

Norwegian meteorologist Vi Byan Knies first tried to turn the problem of weather forecast into a mathematical problem, but it failed because of heavy work. Later, the British mathematician Richardson organized manpower and made great efforts to work out the 24-hour forecast. Because the calculation is too simple and the effect is not good. Richardson said that if you want to "race" with the weather, it will take tens of thousands of people to calculate day and night. Since then, no one has used mathematics to solve calculations.

Electronic computers appeared, and the calculation speed was amazing. The workload of tens of thousands of people a day can be calculated by computer, and it only takes a few minutes to solve the problem. Since then, meteorologists have improved the forecasting equation more and more. In the equation, both the mainland and the ocean are considered; Not only plains and mountains are considered, but also high altitude is considered. Since 1950s, meteorologists have realized a new forecasting method-numerical weather forecast. It is completely calculated and predicted by electronic computer. It can not only measure the short-term weather of 12 hours, 24 hours and 48 hours in the future, but also forecast the medium-term weather of 5 days, 10 days and 15 days. Meteorologists even use the newly discovered special slow waves in the atmosphere to predict the weather in the next month, two months, three months or even longer through accurate calculation.

In the research of international meteorological planning, scientists from Warsaw University in Poland have developed a mathematical simulator to predict the abnormal laws of weather in recent 500 years. According to a large number of meteorological data and research results accumulated by meteorologists in the past 200 years, a lot of research and calculation have been done, revealing regular temperature changes and precipitation changes, in which the temperature cycle times are 1 1 year, 22 years, 90 years and 220 years; The variation periods of precipitation are 1 1 year, 22 years, 75 years and 230 years. These periods are closely related to the movement of the sun. They made a climate forecast for the next 500 years (only suitable for eastern European countries); The coldest winter is 200 1, 2504, 2247, 2492; Particularly warm winters are 2 15 1 year and 2360. The hottest summer is in February, 2027138, 22 18, 2398, 2478; Cool summers are in 1997, 2078, 2 168, 2257, 2347 and 2435. /kloc-The year with the most rainfall in 0/00 is 1998.