Forecast characteristics of aviation weather forecast

"Ladies and gentlemen, our plane encountered unstable airflow and the fuselage was a little bumpy. Please go back to your seat and fasten your seat belt. " People who fly can often hear such broadcasts. Most of this unstable airflow can be predicted, but not all bumps can be accurately predicted due to the limitation of high-altitude detection conditions and forecasting technology. Before each flight takes off, the captain will carry an important weather forecast map and an upper air temperature forecast map with him. In important weather forecast charts, forecasters will mark the predicted jet position, the height and range of turbulence and the height and range of thunderstorm clouds.

The emphasis of aviation meteorological service is obviously different from ordinary meteorological service, and it has the characteristics of timeliness, refinement and internationality. The so-called timeliness and refinement means that all observed and predicted weather conditions should be delivered to relevant departments and individuals in time; The forecast elements, regions and time intervals should be accurate and specific. The international feature is that international flights need regional or global meteorological information, and various aviation meteorological forecasts and observation reports have specific exchange formats in the world, so the meteorological information provided for international flights needs to be exchanged globally.

For aviation meteorology, it is necessary to predict the weather from the ground to the highest flight altitude. General aviation meteorological forecast includes wind, clouds, visibility, weather phenomena, air turbulence, air icing and so on. Spatially, it can be divided into airport forecast, route forecast and regional forecast. Airport forecast is a forecast of the expected meteorological conditions of a specific airport in a specific period of time; Route forecast and regional forecast are the forecasts of specific meteorological elements in specific routes and regions or airspace, respectively, which need to cover the required flight time and spatial scope. Moreover, the aviation meteorological department also needs to issue early warning according to the actual weather conditions, including airport early warning, windshear early warning and important meteorological information on the route.

Compared with ordinary weather forecast, aviation weather forecast is more refined, which requires fixed point, timing and quantification. Fixed point-accurate to a specific location, such as within dozens of kilometers near the airport; Timing-specific to the required time interval, such as the weather forecast of aircraft take-off and landing time; Quantitative-forecast elements and intensities more accurately and concretely, such as wind speed to the second meter and wind direction to 10.

The civil aviation meteorological service system consists of civil aviation meteorological centers, seven regional meteorological centers and more than 80 airport meteorological stations, with strict division of labor and integrated operation and service. The basic principles of aviation meteorological service are the uniqueness of early warning and forecasting, the responsibility system of early warning and forecasting, the early warning and forecasting in different regions and the service mode. The first question responsibility system means that the first publisher of a forecast and warning is the person in charge of this forecast and warning. Although each department will forward forecasts and early warnings, the responsibility for this forecast will always be borne by the first publisher.