Today's technology is so advanced, why can't it effectively predict earthquakes?

China is located in the eastern part of Eurasia, at the junction of the Pacific Rim seismic belt and the Eurasian seismic belt. Earthquakes have been quite frequent in history. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, well-known earthquakes include Tangshan earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake and Ya 'an earthquake. May 12, 218 (today) is the 1th anniversary of the Wenchuan earthquake. Ten years ago, on May 12th, 28, an earthquake of magnitude 8. occurred in Wenchuan, which caused great losses to people's lives and property. Therefore, May 12th has also become China Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Day.

When we commemorate this day, we are not only remembering the dead, but also praying that the disaster will not happen again. With the further development of China's economy, the economic and social risks of earthquakes are also increasing. In addition to establishing and perfecting the disaster prevention, mitigation and relief system, many people may also ask: Now that science and technology are so developed, can't earthquakes be predicted? When a powerful earthquake comes, if people can be evacuated in time as predicted by the weather forecast, wouldn't it greatly reduce casualties and property losses?

In fact, although humans have been tracking earthquakes for hundreds of years, earthquake prediction is still a difficult problem in the scientific community. The study of earthquake prediction in China originated after Xingtai earthquake in 1966, and the country began to explore earthquake prediction. China has been conducting research for many years, and the only recognized "successful" earthquake prediction is the Haicheng earthquake in Liaoning.

on February 4, 1975, at 19: 36 Beijing time, a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 on the Richter scale occurred in Haicheng and Yingkou counties of Liaoning province. Before the earthquake, scientists in China conducted a series of monitoring for the earthquake and gave a prediction when the earthquake approached. After the impending earthquake prediction was issued on the morning of February 4, the factory stopped working, the assembly was cancelled and the rescue team stood by. According to the local population density and the average casualty rate of Xingtai, Tangshan and other earthquakes, if there is no defense, the earthquake may cause more than 5 thousand deaths. The Haicheng earthquake actually killed more than 1,3 people, with 18,38 casualties, accounting for only .22% of the total population.

Although this was a gratifying success, under the backward observation conditions and scientific instruments at that time, the prediction methods of Chinese scientists for earthquakes were actually ordinary: First, by looking at the abnormal conditions of groundwater and animals, and at the same time, before the Haicheng earthquake, there were intensive small earthquakes similar to the Xingtai earthquake at the junction of Yingkou and Haicheng counties, and only after confirming multiple characteristics did Chinese scientists give an imminent prediction. But in fact, the prediction of Haicheng earthquake is the only example that claims to be successful. In these decades of exploration, it can only be said that it is an accident of empirical prediction.

in fact, we still can't accurately predict earthquakes at present, and earthquake prediction is difficult to carry out. Most of the existing earthquake prediction studies are based on various anomalies, such as animal anomalies, water level, geomagnetic deformation, groundwater chemical changes, etc. Besides, there are also predictions based on various precursor reactions, which are actually based on statistics and experience. Not to mention the correlation between these numerous anomalies and earthquakes, the uncertainty of this prediction is also very high.

A big problem that earthquake prediction can't solve at present is that it can't determine the specific time, place and intensity, which is completely different from weather prediction. If it is predicted blindly, the earthquake will not come after the evacuation of local residents, which will not only affect social production and life, but also induce social unrest. The consequences are as serious as the earthquake itself.

At present, people can't predict earthquakes, so don't deify the "success" of Haicheng earthquake, because there is also luck. In the same era, Songpan earthquake, Haicheng earthquake and Tangshan earthquake have different endings, which is enough to explain the problem. Therefore, in the face of all kinds of "earthquake prediction" in the Internet age, there is basically no need to believe, and arguments such as "earthquake cloud" are even more nonsense, which will only bring panic to the lives of ordinary people. At present, China has built an earthquake early warning and monitoring network of 2.2 million square kilometers, making China the third country with earthquake early warning capability after Japan and Mexico, that is, it can give an alarm within a few seconds before the earthquake wave reaches the ground, so that people can quickly find shelter.

today, our detection equipment is spread all over the north and south of the river, and our technology is developing rapidly. I believe that one day, we can make timely and accurate predictions before the earthquake, so as to defend against such disasters. But before that, it is the right way to master the knowledge of earthquake emergency and tighten the string of disaster prevention for residents living in the earthquake zone.