Hurricane Emma: the biggest storm surge threat on the southwest coast of Florida

The picture shows the storm surge that may be caused by Hurricane Elma. It is expected that the coastline from Naples to Fort Myers will be most seriously affected by the storm surge. Red indicates the highest swell of 9 feet and above. As the forecast path of Hurricane Elma, the National Hurricane Center has moved westward in the past few days, so the biggest storm surge threat is also there. Southwest Florida is now staring at a huge wave as high as 15 feet (4.6 meters). However, other parts of Florida have not completely shaken off the impact of storm surge, and it is expected that there will still be storm surge on the east coast of Florida for a long time.

It is also possible that it will rain and aggravate the storm surge flood, or the hurricane will push the water ashore and cause the flood, from the key point to the coast of Georgia.

William South, a tropical meteorologist in the key west office of the National Weather Service (NWS) in Florida, said that with the arrival of the hurricane,

These islands were blown off the coast of Cuba and faced the double blow of storm surge. When Irma approaches from the southeast, its wind will attack the island from the northeast, pushing the water to the key points of florida bay and Mexico. However, as the storm approaches on Sunday morning (September 10), "the wind will suddenly turn south", bringing a surge in the Atlantic Ocean, he told field science.

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Photo of Hurricane irma: Where will Hurricane irma land on the monster storm image of Florida Peninsula? Hurricane Emma: Everything you need to know about this monster storm Emma: How did you evacuate 5.6 million people safely? According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm surge will reach 5 to 65,438+00 feet (65,438+0.5 to 3 meters) and will be aggravated by a large area of silt waves. He said that the last time Keys faced such a situation was Hurricane Donna in 1960. According to the National Weather Service, Donna was hit by a category 4 storm, which triggered a storm surge as high as 13 feet (4 meters).

1960 Aerial view of the marathon after Hurricane Donna. (Florida National Archives) According to NHC estimates, there may be 25 inches (63.5 cm) of heavy rain in key areas, which may aggravate the floods. When Hurricane Katrina passed in 2005, the rainfall on the Keith River was 65,438+00 inches (25 cm). "Even if there is no threat of storm surge, it is still a big flood," Nan said.

At present, the biggest storm surge threat in Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa is the southwest coast of Florida mainland, including Naples and Fort Myers.

The water on the west coast of Florida is shallow, which makes the waves accumulate. According to NHC data, surges of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 4.5 meters) can be seen from the southwestern end of the state to the Fort Myers area. Rick Davis said that from the north of Fort Myers to the south of Tampa, you can see 6 to 10 feet (1.8 to 3 meters) and Tampa 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters).

Meteorologists from the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said that when the storm moves parallel to the coast, these areas will first see the sea water moving from the coast, which is called negative surge, because the wind in irma will blow offshore. This is particularly evident in Tampa Bay, where mudflats may be exposed, said Hal Needham, founder of Marine Meteorology and Climate Company, a private company that helps communities improve their ability to resist coastal disasters.

But when the storm moves northward and the wind moves ashore, "then you will ask Davis to tell the reporter of Life Science that a very fast storm surge is coming.

Some of the worst-hit areas will be in line with the wind, such as Caputi Island, Fort Myers Coast and downtown Tampa. Captiva is "a narrow island facing due west", so when the storm turns to C and comes from some western countries, it will face the highest storm surge risk.

Similarly, winds from the southwest and west will push the waters northeast of Tampa "almost downtown Tampa" and the cruise terminal, Davis said.

Time will also be a problem in the surge of Irma, because the biggest flood will not happen at the same time as the biggest wind. Forecasters and emergency managers warned people in this area not to relax their vigilance after strong winds because they were worried that they might be hit by storm surges. Davis said that the storm surge is also expected to occur at midnight at 3 am local time.

Surges on Florida's west coast will also be pushed into rivers on Florida's west coast, so "we may have floods in the upper reaches of rivers." Rainstorms can also cause rivers to flood, and floods prevent rainwater from flowing into the Gulf of Mexico. Needham said: "KDSP" and "KDSP" can develop into so-called stranded waves from the northern part of Cedar Reef through the bend of St. Mark (in Tallahassee) or the west coast of Florida. He said that this is a bit like the continental shelf trapped between the storm and the continental shelf, which is "very effective" for storm surges.

The threat of storm surge has been weakened on the east coast, but it is still a threat and will continue, because the wind on land is driven by the wind in the south, and because irma rotates to the north.

Surges of 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 meters) can be seen on the east coast of Florida, and 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) can be seen from other coasts to the Georgian border.

Needham was worried about the double threat of rain and waves off the coast of Georgia. He said that although the storm surge there is expected to be relatively small, its continuous nature may prevent the loss of heavy rain.

Jason Hess, a northwest meteorologist in Jacksonville's office, said that there may be some intensified floods in downtown Jacksonville, Florida, because the south wind will blow the water to the north-south St. John River. When the river turns to the east in the middle of the city, it may accumulate water.

The coast near Jacksonville is already fragile because of the damage caused by the huge waves of Hurricane Matthew last year.

The risk is greater, because the sand dunes and beach systems have weakened since Matthew, Hess said:

There is still some uncertainty about the exact path of the storm. If it lands at the southern tip of Florida, it will reduce the risk of storm surge on the west coast, although it will not have much impact on the east coast.

"This is really walking a tightrope. Even the orbital motion of 10 miles (16 kilometers) will change many things on the west coast. Needham said:

This is an original article about life science.