Risk warning: corn and wheat "will face a change"! Will the peanut market go up? Here comes the answer.

Although today's corn and wheat markets are still mainly rising, there may be a changing trend in the short term.

At the same time, at the request of fans, understand the peanut market and how it will be in the later period.

Today, we will focus on the market problems of corn, wheat and peanuts:

First, although corn has gone up, it has fallen.

Judging from today's corn market, there have been signs of change, but some corn enterprises in the northern region are still rising, while Shandong is mainly declining.

It is understood that on March 4, the corn market: eight enterprises in Shandong lowered their purchase prices, including: Zouping Rong Hai fell 1.5 points, 1.405 yuan/kg; Huimin Chunhui fell 1 point, 1.385 yuan/kg; Boxingxiang fell 1 point, 1.37 yuan/kg.

Several other companies have also reduced their prices by 3-5 cm.

Of course, some corn enterprises in the northern region still keep rising today, among which Qinhuangdao and Hebei Changli starch enterprises rose by 30 yuan, which were 1.33 yuan and 1.36 yuan/kg respectively; Seven enterprises in Heilongjiang rose, ranging from 1.0-2.5 points; The mainstream price in Heilongjiang rose to 1.25- 1.265 yuan/kg; Four enterprises in Jilin Province rose by 30-50 yuan, and the mainstream price was 1.30- 1.32 yuan/kg.

Plum blossoms in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia rose by 2 points, 1.345 yuan/kg.

At present, the corn market is polarized, and Shandong begins to decline. At present, the progress of corn sales in North China and Shandong is slow, and the pressure of selling grain has increased recently, and the downward shock may be inevitable.

At present, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China has exceeded 75%, and the grain source is good, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Second, wheat is skyrocketing, and it is necessary to prevent rapid decline.

These days, the price of wheat is like riding a rocket, which directly breaks through the two barriers of 1.5 yuan and 1.6 yuan. At present, the purchase price of some flour enterprises has exceeded the 1.70 yuan mark.

Among them, the auction price of China Grain Storage Jiangsu Company reached 1.72 yuan/kg on March 4, and the highest price of wheat in Anhui was 1.755 yuan/kg.

Today, the wheat market as a whole is mainly rising, but it has narrowed compared with the previous two days, and the number of rising entrepreneurs has decreased to 22. See the attached table for the specific price reduction range:

However, there is also a failure in today's wheat market, that is, the wheat enterprises in Shandong began to fall back, which is not a good phenomenon. Among them, Tianbang grain and oil fell by 2 points in disguise, 1.66 yuan/kg; Liaocheng developed flour decreased 1 min, 1.65 yuan/kg; Dongming Wudeli fell 1 point, 1.66 yuan/kg.

As the price of wheat rose too fast, it rose by about 250-300 yuan per ton in a short time of 10 day. The reasons for the rise are not only the basic favorable factors, but also the external factors from the global food skyrocketing, and even the incident factors of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Do not rule out some factors of capital speculation.

Whether the current relationship between supply and demand of wheat can support the current price of 1.65- 1.70 yuan is still difficult to draw a conclusion. Therefore, if the hype fades, a large influx of wheat imported from Russia will not rule out the risk of a rapid decline.

Third, the more peanuts are sold, the lower they are, and there is still a chance in the market outlook.

Farmers who planted peanuts this year may have lost money, especially those who didn't sell them in the early stage and later sold them at higher prices. With the price falling, the price is getting higher and higher. When they first harvested last year, they were expected to sell at a higher price, but the market did not go up or down. After the New Year, the price of peanuts has dropped to 50 cents a catty in 2.4 yuan, which is 7 or 8 cents lower than the previous price and 6 cents more.

It is understood that on March 4, the mainstream price of Henan Baisha coin was 3.7-4.0 yuan/kg, and Liaoning was 3.9-4.0 yuan/kg; Shandong Baisha cargo 3.5-3.6 yuan/kg; Jilin Siwei Hong Tong fruit 2.8-3.2 yuan/kg, 308 coins rice 3.70 yuan/kg.

At present, the peanut market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and the price is relatively stable, but the trading volume is relatively light, and the fluctuation range will not be too large in a short time, so it should be dominated by sideways weak market.

First, because the price continues to fall, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and now they have entered the Spring Festival, which is not easy to preserve, and the sales pressure is still too great.

Second, over the years, the first half of each year is the off-season of consumption of peanuts and peanut products, which has limited support for the market.

Third, the import volume is large. 202 1, the import quantity of peanuts, peanut oil and peanut fruit was higher than normal.

Of course, it's not that the peanut market can't afford to fall. Personally, I think the medium and long-term market is expected to pick up, and I am optimistic about the peanut price in the second half of the year. Its main logic is:

First, because China's peanut planting area and output have increased for three consecutive years, farmers' income is not high and the benefits of planting peanuts are not good. In 2022, the peanut planting area will naturally decline.

Second, the peanut planting area will also be squeezed due to the continuous increase in the prices of wheat and corn this year.

Third, affected by the global epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global food price has risen, which is also good for peanut prices.

If the first two days happen, it is expected that the total output of peanuts will decline this year, and then consumption will be strong in the second half of the year, then the increase in peanut prices in the second half of the year is a high probability event.