How to solve the current "gas shortage" in North China and other regions?

"There is no problem with heating at home recently, but there is not enough cooking gas." On February 7, 65438, a Baoding citizen told reporters that this situation probably started from 10 days ago. I heard that the relevant departments are adjusting the air, but it seems that it will take a month to get better.

Since the winter, the price of natural gas has skyrocketed, and the price of LNG (liquefied natural gas) has continued to rise to a record high. The phenomenon of "gas shortage" has occurred one after another in North China and other regions. People have been asking, what happened to China's energy supply?

At the critical moment, the relevant departments of the central government attacked with heavy punches. After the National Development and Reform Commission organized a warning meeting in various provinces, the Ministry of Environmental Protection recently issued an urgent document, proposing that "in the heating season, all unfinished projects or places will continue to use the past coal-fired heating methods or other alternative methods".

At present, the effect of the policy has initially appeared, and the LNG market has begun to cool down slightly. According to industry organization data, on February 6th, 65438, the national LNG benchmark price was 7 19 1 yuan/ton, down 0.73%.

Multi-sector heavy punches, natural gas prices ushered in an inflection point.

On February 7, 65438, an urgent document from the Ministry of Environmental Protection, "Please do a good job in comprehensive management of loose coal to ensure people's warm winter work", was circulated on the Internet. The Beijing News reporter confirmed the authenticity of the document.

The document puts forward that the first principle is to ensure people's heating in winter, and that in the heating season, all unfinished projects or places will continue to use the past coal-fired heating methods or other alternative methods. Previously, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and other cities involved in the document all promoted coal to gas this winter.

The sudden change of coal to gas policy stems from the recent changes in the natural gas market.

65438+February 1, the listing price of LNG reached a record high of 9400 yuan/ton, and the bidder was Zhong Rui Gas Company in Daqing, Heilongjiang. According to public data,1October 30th, the listing price of Daqing Zhong Rui soared 1 1400 yuan/ton.

According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, since mid-June 1 1, many regions in China have successively announced gas restriction policies. Gas-deficient areas are mainly northern areas such as Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Henan. The price of natural gas has increased by about 10%, and the increase rate in some areas has reached 15%. In addition, the price of LNG in North China has been above 8,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 60%, and individual manufacturers have quoted as high as 9,400 yuan/ton, a record high. In public media reports, the word "gas shortage" frequently appears.

Looking back in recent years, "gas shortage" is not the first time.

Just in 20 16, due to the severe cold weather, Beijing's gas consumption rose sharply, and there was a short-term "gas shortage", but it was still near misses. However, this time, the "gas shortage" is true.

1At the end of October, 165438+ Hebei Province decided to start the province's natural gas demand side management mechanism, 165438+ entered the province's natural gas supply level II early warning state (orange early warning) from 0: 00 on October 28th. The orange warning is a serious tension warning, and the gap between supply and demand in Hebei Province reaches 10%-20%, which has a great impact on the normal operation of the economy and society.

It is against the background of tight natural gas supply that the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the above documents. In fact, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have recently paid more attention to the problem of gas shortage. A few days ago, local development and reform commissions held intensive price warning meetings to try to stabilize the natural gas market.

For example, the official website, Shanxi government, announced that the provincial price supervision administration had recently held a warning meeting on the laws and regulations on the price of LNG. The meeting reminded and warned enterprises and relevant social organizations to operate in good faith according to law, strengthen price self-discipline, and put forward "six prohibitions" such as not fabricating and spreading price increase information, not abusing market dominance, and not reaching monopoly agreements.

With the heavy-handed attack by many departments, LNG prices began to fall. Zhuo Chuang data shows that after hitting a high of 7236 yuan/ton on 65438+February 0, LNG prices began to fall slightly. On February 6th, 65438, the national LNG benchmark price dropped to 7 19 1 yuan/ton.

Sudden increase of coal to gas

Behind this gas shortage and national policy is a large gap in domestic natural gas supply in the short term.

According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 230 billion cubic meters this year, with an increase of more than 33 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. This increment and growth rate is equivalent to more than twice the average annual growth rate in the previous five years, which has refreshed the history of natural gas consumption increment in China, and the consumption showed explosive growth.

According to the data reported by the three major oil companies, the total shortage of natural gas in China will exceed11300 million cubic meters this year and 30 billion cubic meters in 20021year. By then, the daily gas gap during peak hours may reach 200 million cubic meters.

Liu Guangbin, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that the price increase reflects to some extent that the domestic natural gas market resources are in short supply. The main contradiction between supply exceeding demand is that the upstream supply of natural gas cannot meet the rapidly growing downstream demand. Of course, at present, the domestic natural gas system and mechanism are not perfect, and vicious competition and monopoly management occur from time to time. The shortage of natural gas supply caused by the game of various stakeholders is not ruled out.

For this gap, PetroChina, China's largest natural gas supplier, had long expected it.

According to the data provided by PetroChina, the planned supply to Beijing and Hebei this winter and next spring will be 1.2 1.6 billion cubic meters and 5.02 billion cubic meters respectively, up by 1.3.4% and 57.9% respectively. The supply to Hebei Province increased by 65.438+0.84 billion cubic meters compared with last year, which was mainly used for changing boiler coal into gas, transforming every village and putting Shijiazhuang Thermal Power into operation in the ninth phase. The natural gas increment to Hebei accounts for 55.2% of the total resource increment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

However, the rapid advancement of "coal to gas" still exceeded expectations.

"The planned coal to gas can basically be guaranteed by natural gas. What makes people unprepared is the sudden increase in coal to gas. " In a material sent to reporters, PetroChina said that this year, as the target year of the National Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, all localities have increased the intensity of "changing coal to gas" and improved the status of clean energy. In order to achieve the above goals, Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and other places have set quantitative targets for changing coal into gas, and the number of local governments changing coal into gas has already exceeded the quantitative targets.

In 20 17, the plan of changing coal to gas issued by Hebei province was10.8 million households to change coal to gas and 4,500 tons of boiler coal to gas. However, the actual situation is that it is estimated that 2.6 million households will change from coal to gas, and boilers will be rebuilt 1 1700 tons.

Lin, dean of China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, pointed out that the main foothold of "changing coal into gas" is to reduce environmental pollution, which is an inevitable requirement for smog control, clean development and building beautiful China. The general direction of "changing coal into gas" is right, but the current shortage of natural gas is a difficult problem that must be overcome at present.

Industrial users and residential users "live up to expectations"

In addition to the explosion of changing coal into gas, the appetite of other industrial users for natural gas is also rising rapidly, such as industrial fuel and power generation gas. This year's year-on-year consumption has exceeded the sum of the increments in the past three years, and there has been competition between industrial users and residential users.

According to public information, the use of natural gas is mainly concentrated in four areas: city gas, power generation, chemical industry and working conditions enterprises. According to the data provided by PetroChina, the urban gas industry grew by 13%, the power generation industry by 28%, the fertilizer industry by 25%, and the industrial and mining enterprises by 2 1%.

According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 230 billion cubic meters this year, with an increase of more than 33 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. This increment and growth rate is equivalent to more than twice the average annual growth rate in the previous five years, which has refreshed the history of natural gas consumption increment in China.

Gas shortage exposed the shortcomings of storage and transportation facilities (mainly pipelines and gas storage). At present, the effective working gas volume of underground gas storage in China is less than 6 billion cubic meters, accounting for only about 3% of the total natural gas consumption, while in some major natural gas users, this ratio is generally above 12%, such as 16.8% in the United States, 15.8% in Russia, 27% in Germany and nearly 30% in France.

Many gas fields have entered the full-load production state.

The price of natural gas has risen so much that it is called gas shortage. Yu, chairman of GCL-Poly Oil&Gas Group, believes that this is mainly due to factors such as macroeconomic stabilization, low gas prices, increased prevention and control of air pollution, clean heating in the north, and centralized policies. Natural gas consumption has obviously picked up, and the growth rate has been faster since the winter, which has led to the growth rate of natural gas demand in China higher than that of natural gas supply, which has caused a situation of short supply to some extent.

Therefore, to maintain the balance between supply and demand and price stability in the natural gas market, an important measure is to increase supply.

Feng Haicheng, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, also believes that "in the case of strong natural gas consumption demand, increasing supply has become a problem that must be faced and solved for market balance and stability".

In a document sent to the Beijing News reporter, PetroChina said that at present, its storage capacity and LNG storage capacity have reached the warning line. In order to ensure the safe operation of the pipeline network and ensure the gas consumption of residents in the jurisdiction, PetroChina has taken a number of measures.

At present, many gas fields have also entered the full-load production state. On February 3rd, 65438, the daily output of natural gas in Qinghai Oilfield climbed to1870 million cubic meters. Sebei, Dongping and Ma Xian gas fields entered the full-load production state 10 days earlier than the same period of last year.

The liquefied natural gas market has become the focus.

At the same time of accelerating the release of production capacity, the cross-regional deployment of natural gas has been accelerating.

According to the reporter from the industry and oil and gas companies, the areas where gas prices have risen sharply are mainly concentrated in North China, and the heating demand in southern provinces is far less than that in northern regions, so its market is relatively stable.

The materials provided by Sinopec, which has a large gas source base such as Fuling shale gas, to the Beijing News reporter show that it is actively coordinating with other enterprises, speeding up pipeline interconnection, and adopting various means such as resource exchange and transportation to solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the region.

Zuo Chen, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said, "At present, the price difference between North and South is widening, and Nanqi has reached Henan, Anhui and Lunan. In the long run, it may curb the price in the north, and the price may fall back later. However, considering that the overall supply and demand are still tight, the overall decline will not be too great. "

The acquisition of overseas LNG has also entered the public eye.

PetroChina said that on the one hand, it is sending several business teams to search for reliable LNG spot resources on a global scale, and on the other hand, it is actively communicating with resource countries to avoid uncertain risks such as reduced supply, suspended supply and no need to download.

"China attaches great importance to the guarantee of natural gas supply, and actively supports enterprises to diversify their imports of overseas natural gas resources while increasing domestic natural gas production," Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference on February 7.

Due to the limitation of domestic oil and gas system, private enterprises also aim to expand overseas.

Yu, chairman of GCL-Poly Oil&Gas Group, said that the basic design of its Ethiopia-Djibouti oil&gas project in East Africa has been completed, and it is expected that it will be fully ready for construction in 20 18. "Recently, due to the soaring price of natural gas, the negotiation of the long-term sales agreement for the Ethiopia-Djibouti project is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that a legally binding agreement can be signed in the near future."

The serious "gas shortage" that continues to spread has aroused widespread concern of relevant departments and markets. 165438+1Since mid-October, many regions in China have successively announced gas restriction policies, and the price of LNG in North China has increased by more than 60%. 65438+February 1, the listing price of LNG reached a record high of 9400 yuan/ton.

The "gas shortage" and its price increase have also brought new topics and tasks to the market-oriented reform of natural gas prices. What is the reason for this gas shortage? Who can benefit from it and who will suffer the greatest negative impact? What measures can be taken to avoid such a gas shortage in the future natural gas supply?

The gas shortage stems from the imbalance of supply and demand structure.

What are the main supply channels of natural gas /LNG in China at present? What is the structure of supply and demand in recent years?

Liu Guangbin: There are two main supply channels for domestic natural gas: one is domestically produced and the other is imported from abroad. From June 2065438 to October 2007 10, China's natural gas output was121200 million cubic meters, up1/0.2% year-on-year; Natural gas imports were 72.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 27.5%; Natural gas consumption186.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 18.7%. In terms of natural gas supply, the overall increase of 20 17 is obvious.

Even so, in the face of the rapid growth of downstream demand, especially the arrival of winter heating season, the domestic natural gas market is obviously in short supply. PetroChina predicts that the supply gap of resources in the north will be about 4.8 billion cubic meters during the whole winter heating period.

Y: At present, the main supply channels of natural gas in China are domestic gas and imported gas. Domestic gas has gradually formed a conventional and unconventional multi-supply situation, and imported gas has formed a multi-channel supply pattern of pipeline gas and LNG, with more than 10 resource importing countries. In recent years, with the increasing dependence of China's natural gas on foreign countries, the proportion of imported gas has gradually increased.

In terms of supply and demand structure, China began to import LNG in 2006, imported Central Asia pipeline gas at the end of 2009, and the China-Myanmar natural gas pipeline was completed and put into operation in 20 13, marking the initial formation of northwest and southwest natural gas pipelines and offshore LNG import channels. On the whole, domestic natural gas supply is mainly pipeline gas.

Is this year's gas shortage, to some extent, the inevitable result of this supply and demand structure?

Liu Guangbin: At present, there are no new imported pipelines in China, and the number of LNG receiving stations is small. The short-term growth potential of natural gas resource exploitation is limited. In addition, the construction of gas storage and peak shaving facilities is insufficient, the degree of pipe network connectivity and construction scale are small, and it is inevitable that there will be a supply gap in the natural gas market.

Y: With the vigorous implementation of China's clean energy policy, the proportion of natural gas in primary energy is increasing, and the golden decade for the development of domestic natural gas industry has arrived. We predict that after 2020, the supply of natural gas will gradually exceed the demand.

Downstream end users are greatly affected.

At present, the "gas shortage" is particularly serious in North China. Who are the main suppliers of natural gas market in North China?

Y: In the natural gas market in North China, the main supplier is mainly three barrels of oil. In addition to three barrels of oil, there are many second-tier enterprises, such as Jingneng, Beijing Gas and Xinao. At present, the country is pushing the infrastructure (LNG receiving station and long-distance pipeline network) to enter the third party. In order to make up for the inherent disadvantage of the lack of upstream resources, the second echelon enterprises actively participate in the reform of mixed ownership of three barrels of oil and are rushing to the beach in the field of infrastructure.

Liu Guangbin: The main area of natural gas heating in winter is North China, and the main gas sources are PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, among which PetroChina's west-to-east gas transmission and Shaanxi-Beijing system are the main gas sources.

When gas prices rise, which enterprises benefit from gas shortage and which enterprises are more negatively affected?

Liu Guangbin: The rapid growth of natural gas demand during the year greatly stimulated the upstream suppliers to increase production and efficiency, and the floating price of natural gas ensured the profits of these enterprises to some extent. For downstream terminals, first of all, the price increase leads to higher costs; In addition, during the peak period of heating gas use in winter, the industrial and commercial sectors in some areas restrict the use of gas, and the supply of natural gas is insufficient.

Y: With the increase of gas price, we believe that due to the tight supply and demand situation, suppliers will benefit from gas shortage, while downstream end users will be greatly negatively affected. If the gas price rises too fast, it may even happen that gas replaces coal and electricity replaces gas.

As a large domestic energy enterprise, how has GCL been affected?

Recently, due to the soaring price of natural gas, the negotiation of long-term sales agreement for GCL Ethiopia-Djibouti project is progressing smoothly, and it is expected that legally binding HOA will be signed in the near future. But this is a double-edged sword, and the cost pressure of GCL domestic natural gas power plants will rise.

Accelerate the construction of gas storage and peak shaving facilities

How to solve the recent gas shortage problem in a short time?

Liu Guangbin: In the near future, we should speed up the construction progress of Sinopec Tianjin lng terminal and put it into production as soon as possible. In addition, it will also promote the interconnection of natural gas pipeline networks and rationally allocate natural gas resources in the north, south and east. Furthermore, the problem of limited natural gas supply in Central Asia should be solved as soon as possible to ensure the gas supply of this main channel.

Y: In the short term, the government can solve the supply shortage problem with comprehensive policies. First, further promote the reform of price marketization, design an appropriate market incentive mechanism, and improve the enthusiasm of the supply side; Second, from the perspective of smog control, increase subsidies for "coal to gas" and sacrifice a certain degree of industrial gas to meet the needs of residents when necessary.

How to solve the gas shortage problem in the medium and long term?

Yu: In the medium and long term, it is suggested to intensify the reform of oil and gas industry, increase the construction of reserve facilities and pipelines, speed up the access mechanism of third-party industries, and ensure the energy security of participating countries. Regarding the formation mechanism of natural gas price, it is suggested to adhere to the reform route of "opening both ends and controlling the middle", so that market players can set prices fairly in a fully competitive environment and give full play to the role of market regulation, which is conducive to the healthy development of natural gas industry.

Liu Guangbin: In the future, we should actively accelerate the construction of gas storage and peak shaving facilities. The construction of gas storage, especially strategic gas storage, should be put on the agenda as soon as possible The construction of natural gas storage stations should be improved as soon as possible in the main natural gas consumption areas, especially in the northern heating areas with large seasonal peak-valley difference. In addition, we will actively promote the reform of natural gas market mechanism and improve the natural gas market mechanism including pricing mechanism and pipeline transportation system.

It's better to be warmer in the south.