What is the reason behind the national sugar production reduction of 6.5438+0.7 million tons? What are the possible impacts?

Recently, "the national white sugar output decreased by 6.5438+0.7 million tons" and "the price of white sugar reached a new high" rushed to the hot search. What is the reason behind it? Let me show you the analysis.

First, domestic factors.

Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia all produce sugar. 2 1 year, Guangxi reaches 6 1 10000 tons, only half of other places. Therefore, Guangxi's sugar production occupies an absolute dominant position in the country. From the comparison of data in 23 years and 22 years, the sugar production in other regions is increasing, while that in Guangxi is decreasing, so the main reason for the decrease in sugar production is in Guangxi.

The main reason for Guangxi's reduction in production is the frequent dry weather in Guangxi in the second half of last year, and the high temperature and lack of rain affect the growth of sugarcane. Is the harvest season expected to be wide in 2022/23? The output of sugarcane in western countries dropped to about 44 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.33%. If there is less sugarcane, there will be less natural sugar production.

Second, foreign factors.

The international sugar trade is dominated by sugarcane sugar, and its output and export are concentrated in India, Brazil and Thailand.

As the world's largest sugar producer, India sounded the alarm as early as last year. Last year, the Indian government announced that it would extend the sugar export restriction for one year to 3 1 in 2023 to ensure the sugar supply in its domestic market.

The data shows that as of April 2, 2023, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in 2022/2023 was 1. 1.0223 million tons. By the end of March, India's sugar production in 2022/2023 was 29.96 million tons, down 3.4% from 30.99 million tons in the same period last year. The output of the two major producing countries was significantly lower than expected, which made the price of raw sugar go out of a new high.

In Brazil, although the new harvest season is just around the corner in April, the output in 2023/2024 is expected to increase significantly, but it will gradually enter the crushing peak around June.

The reduction in sugar production may have the following effects:

Rising price of white sugar: As one of the indispensable foods in people's lives, the reduction of white sugar production is likely to push up the market price and bring some pressure to consumers' living costs.

Stabilize the sugar market: reducing production can effectively control the relationship between supply and demand in the sugar market, avoid inventory backlog and improve market stability.

Promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises: in fact, reducing sugar production in the short term is a good thing for sugar enterprises and can improve their profitability. However, in view of the fact that China is currently in the off-season of consumption, summer is approaching, and the peak season of sugar consumption is coming, the future sugar market will be tense, the supply side will change constantly, and the risk pressure of enterprises will increase, which will prompt bulk sugar enterprises to think about how to effectively manage risks and ensure profits. The prominent problem of overcapacity in the plan will force sugar enterprises to accelerate transformation and upgrading and increase the added value of products to better adapt to market competition.

Generally speaking, although the reduction of sugar production may bring some economic impact, it is also an important measure to adjust the relationship between supply and demand in the market and help promote the healthy development of sugar industry.