Investigate the influence of abnormal weather on agricultural production this winter.

Recently, the abnormal weather in some southern provinces has greatly affected transportation, agricultural production and circulation of agricultural products (17. 18, 0.48, 2.87%). In the past two days, our customers have paid more attention to the impact of this abnormal weather on agricultural production. We extracted relevant chapters from the interview of Xinhuanet 65438+1October 18, and the basic conclusion is:

Generally speaking, frequent precipitation in winter has more advantages than disadvantages for agricultural production. Winter is the off-season of agricultural production in China, and continuous precipitation will increase soil moisture, which is very beneficial to the sowing and growth of crops after the spring of next year.

The adverse effects are: it may cause freezing damage to local crops in the south, especially rape; Long-term poor illumination has a great influence on greenhouse agriculture, and greenhouse vegetables with poor heating conditions will be affected.

Guotai Junan Comments:

At present, the prices of fresh materials such as meat and vegetables have risen. First, because the Spring Festival is approaching, and more importantly, traffic is affected by heavy snow. The pressure of price increase comes from the tension in circulation. Relevant state departments have introduced relevant support measures. At present, we can't think that this abnormal climate will have an adverse impact on agricultural production in the coming year, not to mention the extent of the impact.

65438+ 10/8 Xinhua interview related chapters

Q: In the course of this weather, some areas in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Guizhou experienced snow condensation and freezing rain. On June 4th, 65438+1October/kloc-0, the freezing range in Guizhou broke through the historical record of1984 65438+1October 20th, when 68 cities and counties experienced this kind of weather at the same time, which is said to have reached 76 counties and cities. On the same day, the roads in Hunan Province were frozen, and many expressway in the province were closed. What are snow condensation and freezing rain, and what impact will these phenomena have on traffic? Will snow condensation and freezing rain affect agricultural production?

A: In fact, we seldom talk about the phenomenon of snow condensation. In fact, it is a state that the temperature near the ground is close to zero after the snowfall in the air falls to the ground. After a little melting, snow will turn into water, and the temperature will drop at night. When it drops suddenly, the melted water will freeze into ice. When you get to the tree, you will form fog pine or cedar, and snow condensation is probably such a phenomenon.

There is a warm layer from the ground to 1500m, and the middle temperature is about 0-4 degrees. At this temperature, after the snowflake falls, it becomes water droplets through this gas layer, and the water droplets fall further. When they fall to the ground, the temperature near the ground is close to zero, even MINUS one or two degrees. At this point, the water falls to the ground or ground attachments and freezes immediately, but it is not frozen into ice. Instead, the water is frozen into an ice sheet, which is called freezing rain. Whether it is freezing rain or snow condensation, there is no essential difference between the impact on agriculture and rain and snow. Both freezing rain and freezing snow increase soil moisture, but freezing rain and freezing snow are produced when the temperature is relatively low, which inhibits the growth of crops. If it is in the north, this freezing rain or snow condensation, especially in farmland without crops in winter, should have no effect.

Q: Everyone says that snow is a good omen. What is snow? What impact will this snowfall have on agriculture since June 65438+ 10/0?

Xue Rui is a famous saying in ancient China. Xue Rui actually likes snow and good snow. Why do you say snow is a good sign? Because there will be less rain and snow in winter, if there are a few good snows, on the one hand, it will increase the soil moisture, which is more beneficial to spring sowing production next year; On the other hand, after the snow falls, when the strong cold air comes, it plays a warm and protective role for winter crops such as winter wheat, so that winter wheat will not freeze to death. For the south, if there is a good snow, on the one hand, it will have some impact on the crops on the ground, but the temperature in the south is relatively high, which has little impact and also increases the soil moisture.

Xue Rui indicates a bumper harvest year, which means that there will be more rain and snow in winter, indicating that there is less possibility of drought in the coming year, and agricultural production may get a bumper harvest.

Because there was a cooling rain process in the early stage, if the cooling continues or the scope of rain and snow continues to expand, the impact on agriculture will still be great. On the one hand, in addition to increasing soil moisture, there are some adverse effects. On the other hand, after the rain scope is expanded, it may cause freezing damage to local crops in the south, especially rape. These two processes last for a long time, and the long-term dull weather has a great influence on greenhouse agriculture. On the one hand, the heating conditions of greenhouse agriculture should be improved, and poor heating conditions will have a certain impact on greenhouse vegetables. The adverse effects on agriculture will gradually emerge.

Q: At present, some parts of southern China are suffering from drought. What is the reason for this? What impact will global warming and persistent drought have on agricultural production?

A: The most important thing about the drought in the south is the lack of precipitation. Due to insufficient precipitation, the water in the soil is constantly evaporating and the drought continues. The reasons for this process are very complicated. From our agricultural point of view, the main cause of drought is water shortage, which is a very complicated problem for global warming and the impact of drought on agriculture. The so-called global warming, many netizens say that it is warm in winter and so cold in winter. In fact, warm winter means that the average temperature in winter is higher than normal, or it is warmer on average, not that it is warm every day in winter. So global warming is the same, not to say that the temperature in every part of the world is rising at any time. On average, the temperature is a warming trend for the whole earth, and it may be decreasing in a certain area and at some time. Therefore, in the context of global warming, the most direct thing is the increase of extreme weather events. Some places have historically unusually high temperatures, while others have historically low temperatures, and the temperature fluctuation is increasing. This weather has a great influence on agriculture. This kind of crop could not be planted in some places, but it can be planted because of the rising temperature. Generally speaking, global warming has a great impact on agriculture, but the general trend is that it may directly change the planting layout of crops.

For example, winter wheat can only be planted to the south of the Great Wall, and may be planted to the north of the Great Wall in the future. In addition, under the background of global warming, the yield of some crops may decrease, or the fluctuation range of some crops may increase. Global warming may lead to the increase of some pests and diseases, and the eggs of some pests and diseases will not freeze to death in winter, so the pests and diseases in the coming year may have a greater impact. Drought should have a great impact on China's agriculture. The drought in the summer of 2006 not only led to a serious decline in local crop production in that year, but also led to a decline in local crop production due to insufficient water supply, which also led to water leakage in some agricultural facilities such as reservoirs and ponds. In addition, drought may have a great impact on people's normal life. If there are no direct measures to affect agriculture, the best way is to strengthen the construction of water conservancy facilities, find ways to save rainwater as much as possible when there is plenty of rain, and transport water to places where agriculture needs it as much as possible when there is water shortage. This is the most effective measure. I don't think there is a better measure. The best thing is to strengthen the construction of water conservancy facilities and build more reservoirs and ponds to store water in rainy season and use them in dry season.

Q: So what impact will frequent precipitation activities have on agricultural production in winter? How will we take preventive measures? Will next year be another bumper harvest year?

A: Generally speaking, frequent precipitation in winter is more beneficial than harmful to agricultural production, because China's agricultural production is off-season, and continuous precipitation will increase soil moisture, which is very beneficial to the sowing and growth of all crops after next spring. On the one hand, it has a great influence on frequent precipitation in winter. For example, you can eat fresh vegetables in winter, which are all grown in greenhouses. Frequent precipitation may affect the production of greenhouse vegetables. For large-scale agriculture, it is beneficial to the main crop production season recognized by China. As for whether next year will be a bumper harvest year, because crop production is a long time, it can only be said that frequent precipitation or excessive precipitation in winter will lay a good foundation for crop production next year, but whether it will be a bumper harvest depends on the weather and climate after next spring. If it rains a lot in winter and it doesn't rain for a few months next spring, agriculture can't get a bumper harvest. It can only be said that the good rain now has laid a good foundation.

Q: At present, farmers still depend on the weather to eat. Just now, the No.1 document of the Central Committee specifically proposed to give full play to the function and role of meteorology in serving agricultural production. How will the meteorological department do a good job in agricultural service?

A: It is a very important job for the meteorological department to serve agriculture, because agriculture is more closely related to weather and climate, because we all know that crops grow in the open air and are affected by weather and climate all the time, and what weather conditions determine what kind of agricultural production. For example, dry land crops are mainly planted in the north and rice is planted in the south, which is determined by the weather and climate. In the process of serving agriculture, meteorological departments closely combine weather forecast with agricultural production, which we define as agricultural weather forecast. For example, it is a long season from sowing to harvesting. In this process, when to sow is the most suitable, when to harvest, and what weather to avoid are closely related to the weather. Therefore, the most important work we are doing now is agricultural weather forecast, for example, according to the soil water and heat conditions during the sowing period this year to predict when the sowing is most appropriate; When harvesting, if you encounter heavy rain or bad weather, try to tell farmers when it is appropriate to harvest. For example, the most common thing in the north is rotten factory rain, that is, long-term rainy weather in the harvest season will affect the wheat harvest.

In addition, we have a meteorological monitoring throughout the whole process, when to harvest, what kind of rain, weather and heat conditions crops need, and if not, there will be disasters. We will monitor the whole process, and do some loss assessment after the disaster, such as how much loss this disaster will cause to the crops after the disaster. We will estimate how much loss the disaster will cause through models and a series of methods, and provide information to the national agricultural authorities so that they can grasp these details as soon as possible. On the basis of monitoring and evaluation, we also directly provide some output forecasts to the country, such as what level agricultural output may reach under this year's weather and climate conditions, whether it is a bumper harvest or a reduction in production.

Everyone has a concept of good weather, that is, looking forward to rain when it is time to rain. In fact, the weather does not depend on people's will, but after we have the weather forecast, we will try our best to choose the weather artificially and make it as good as possible. For example, if we have a reservoir, we can adjust it to give more water when there is no rain. If it is predicted that there will be an obvious rainfall process, the water in the reservoir will be saved, and we will try our best to tilt in the direction of favorable weather. Our weather forecast mainly plays such a role. I hope our predictions will be more accurate and play a greater role in this respect. Furthermore, frequent precipitation process and long-term precipitation process have a short-term rainy effect on agriculture, which is not conducive to crop growth. As we all know, crops need water and sunshine, but it is said that crops can't grow without sunshine, but in the long run, precipitation is also a good positive effect. Storing water can avoid evaporation and consumption without rain for a long time, which will affect the output of agricultural products.