What is the changing trend of broiler and laying hen prices compared with the same period?

In July 2008, the prices of eggs and broilers continued to decline, and in August, the prices of broilers and laying hens began to rise. In September, the price of eggs hit a new high in recent years, and the purchase price of broilers also got rid of the trough in July and rose steadily. From July to September, Liaoning Animal Health Monitoring and Early Warning Center organized personnel to visit some broiler, laying hen breeding villages, farmers and large-scale farms in Shenyang, Tieling and Chaoyang to investigate the market situation, feeding situation and existing problems of broilers and laying hens, summarize the production situation in the third quarter and analyze the production form in the fourth quarter. The results are reported as follows. 1 current situation 1. 1 The market for eggs and broilers is picking up, with high cost and limited breeding profit space. The prices of eggs and broilers have bottomed out and are on the rise. According to the survey, the price of eggs has been declining since June 2007 10. During the investigation in lingyuan city in July 2008, the price of eggs was in 5.8 yuan/kg, while in Yuhong District of Shenyang and Changtu County of Tieling City, the price of eggs was only in 5.6 yuan/kg, which was 25% lower than the same period last year. In August, with the change of climate and the approach of Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of eggs began to rise. After the Olympic Games, the upward trend is more obvious. At the end of September, the average price of eggs in the province reached 7.24 yuan/kg. Although the price of eggs is relatively high at present, it has not affected consumers' enthusiasm for buying. According to the survey, the starting point of egg price in the third quarter is very low, and the overall trend is on the rise. In July, the price of eggs was only 5.97 yuan/kg, 8.5% lower than that in June. Subsequently, the price of eggs began to rise rapidly, rising by 9.5% in August compared with July, and by 10.7% in September compared with August, reaching 7.24 yuan/kg, the highest price of eggs in recent years. The main reasons affecting the price of eggs are summarized as follows: in the first two quarters, the stock of laying hens was not large, and there were relatively few supplementary poultry farmers. In the future, the number of laying hens will continue to be low, and the price of eggs will rise soon after the weather turns cold and the consumption situation improves. Another factor is that there will be Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in a month, when the consumption demand of eggs will also increase, and the price increase is inevitable. The favorable factors also include: the school is about to start, and the eggs used in the student canteen are centrally purchased and stored; After the Olympic Games, many factories in the south will start working, and the demand for eggs will increase when migrant workers return to their factories. There has been no large-scale bird flu epidemic for a long time, people's fear has been lifted and their desire to buy has increased; With the increase of social average wage, per capita income and purchasing power increase. According to the survey, the broiler market has been in a downturn since June 2008. During the investigation in Changtu County, Tieling City in mid-July, farmers reported that the price of broilers was in 8 yuan/kg, which was 1 yuan lower than that at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of this year, the price of chicks was 4 ~ 5 yuan/chicken, but in June, the price of broilers dropped to 2.4 ~ 2.5 yuan/chicken, and in July, it dropped to an astonishing 0.6 ~ 0.8 yuan/chicken. Breeding farms are losing money, while the price of chicks in the same period last year was as high as 5 ~ 6 yuan per chick. After entering August, the price of broilers began to rise, and by the end of August, it rose to 9 yuan/chicken. In the investigation, it is further understood that broiler production is in the recovery period. In July, the purchase price of broilers fell to the lowest point, only 8.3 1 yuan/kg; Subsequently, prices began to rise steadily. In August, the average price of broilers reached 8.72 yuan/kg, up 5% from July. In September, the purchase price of broilers reached 8.96 yuan/kg, and farmers saw the dawn of profit. 1. 1.2 the upward trend of feed prices has slowed down, and it is still running at a high level, so the profit margin of feeding is limited. In the first half of 2008, the price of feed raw materials continued to rise, which also pushed up the feeding cost. Looking at the international market, the price of soybean meal continues to rise, the price of fish meal is stable, and the prices of methionine and lysine soar. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices of corn and soybean meal in lingyuan city rose and continued to operate at a high level; The price of fish meal is lower than that of the same period last year. Compared with the same period of last year, the compound feed for laying hens increased, but the overall situation was stable. According to the survey, in 2008, the prices of feed raw materials generally showed an upward trend. After entering the third quarter, the increase slowed down and the price of soybean meal fell. The price of soybean meal peaked at 4.75 yuan/kg in July, up 23% compared with 65438+ 10. Then it began to decline, falling by 5.3% in August and 3% in September, which was similar to that in June and remained at a high level. The prices of corn and wheat bran continued to rise slowly, with little increase. Corn rose by 0.6% in August and 3.6% in September; Wheat bran rose 1.4% in August, and the price in September was the same as that in August. In 2008, the compound feed for laying hens and broilers was also on the rise, and the increase slowed down after entering the third quarter. The price of compound feed for laying hens increased by 7.3% in July, decreased by 0.4% in August and increased by 3.4% in September. Broiler compound feed increased by 6% in July, decreased by 1.2% in August and increased by 4% in September. With the rising market prices of eggs and broilers, farmers began to make profits. In the investigation, the author calculated the cost account of raising chickens with Master Chen, the breeder of 5 000 hens in lingyuan city: "It takes 4 months for a laying hen to hatch chickens and lay eggs, during which it needs 30 yuan input costs such as feed and epidemic prevention. The laying period of a laying hen is about 12 months. Each chicken consumes 13 g of feed every day, which is converted into 0.3 yuan. In addition, there are labor and water and electricity costs, and about 10% ~ 20% of chickens are eliminated during the feeding process. However, a laying hen can lay about 17.5 kg of eggs during the laying period, with an average of 16 ~ 17 yuan per hen. Therefore, only when the price of eggs is around 6.2 yuan/kg can it be equal to the feeding cost. At the end of September, the price of eggs has reached 7.24 yuan/kg, indicating that farmers have begun to make profits. The scale of 1.2 has increased, and the free-range households have obvious delisting momentum. According to the investigation, several poultry companies in Wanshou Township and Erji Town of Jianping County have feed factories, hatcheries and specialized technical service departments. The industrial chain of these large enterprises has been continuously extended, and gradually developed from simple fresh egg production to integrated enterprises such as egg production, grading, deep processing and marketing. During the investigation in Dongdalin Village, Yuhong District, Shenyang City in July, it was found that at the beginning of this year, 7-8 farmers in this village did not raise chickens, and 6-7 households were unable to bear the losses. Laying hens aged 2-3 months were taken off the shelves ahead of schedule, accounting for 1/4 of the farmers in the village, but the breeding scale was between 2,000 and 5,000, and farmers with a scale of over 10,000 still insisted on it, but the supplementary column was less than in previous years. During the investigation in Bamian town, it was found that there were basically no free-range households raising broilers, and the scale of large-scale chicken farms was reduced; Therefore, this phenomenon has formed: small families do not raise, and large families raise less. Although a large number of free-range farmers quit, from the survey, due to the large proportion of farms and farmers, it will not have a great impact on the total amount of farming. During the investigation in Tieling, the scale of broiler breeding accounted for 60% ~ 70% of the total, and the scale farms and breeder farms were less affected; During the investigation in Yuhong District, the number of farmers in Dongdalin Village who don't raise chickens or take off their shelves early is about 2 000 ~ 3 000, while the number of farmers with more than 5 000 has not changed. 2 Trend forecast In the third quarter, the production of laying hens and broilers in our province was in the adjustment stage. According to the analysis of the current production situation of broilers and laying hens, we analyze and predict the prices of broilers and eggs in the fourth quarter as follows. 2. 1 The market demand will tend to be stable, and the production of broilers and laying hens will gradually stabilize. Due to the influence of New Year's Day and Spring Festival at the end of the year, it will stimulate the production of broilers and laying hens. It is expected that the number of laying hens and broilers will increase in the fourth quarter. But now farming has become rational, and the increase will not be great. 2.2 It is estimated that the price of eggs and broilers will decrease slightly in the fourth quarter, then stabilize, and the price will increase slightly during New Year's Day and Spring Festival. However, due to inflation and other reasons, the prices of corn, soybean meal and other raw materials may remain at a high price, resulting in high production costs and low production efficiency. 2.3 The intensive level of laying hens and broilers in our province is relatively high. After years of market economy test, it has a high ability to resist market risks. In view of the current good economic situation in China, the state has stepped up efforts to stimulate domestic demand in the market, which is conducive to the production development of the chicken industry, and there will be no major fluctuations in the production of laying hens and broilers in our province. 3 Problems and Countermeasures 3. 1 It is difficult for farmers to get loans, which needs to be solved jointly by the government and rural cooperative organizations. At present, it is a common phenomenon that it is difficult for chicken enterprises to get loans. The government should take effective measures and innovate the guarantee method to solve the problem of animal husbandry production input. Some areas have made useful explorations. For example, lingyuan city established the Agricultural Industrialization Loan Guarantee Center in 2007, which is an unofficial organization advocated by the government. The government allocated 5 million yuan, and farmers raised 5 million yuan in the form of joining the association, striving to expand the loan amount by 5~ 10 times, thus vigorously supporting the industrialized production of beef cattle by farmers. This is a measure worthy of promotion and reference. On the one hand, it improves the enthusiasm of farmers and provides a guarantee for the normal production of breeding enterprises and farmers. On the other hand, it is also a good way for the government to macro-control animal husbandry production. 3.2 Farming pollution is serious, and farming community is the best solution. The biggest problem found in the investigation is serious aquaculture pollution. When visiting the breeding village, we found that fecal pollution has seriously affected the healthy life of residents. It is an effective way to separate production from life and establish a feeding community outside the village. Governments at all levels can give preferential policies and financial support as appropriate. Areas with developed aquaculture can make full use of our province's preferential policies to support deep processing enterprises, and consider introducing and establishing a harmless treatment plant for feces to deeply process feces, turn waste into treasure, reduce pollution and promote local economic development. 3.3 Some policies to facilitate the people and benefit the people are not well implemented, and it is the key to increase publicity. In order to promote the development of animal husbandry in our province, our province has formulated a series of preferential incentive measures, but from the survey, the publicity of these measures is not enough, and farmers know little about it, or even don't know it at all. For example, the newly-built broiler community covers an area of more than 10 mu, the number of breeding sets is more than 50,000 yuan, and the deep processing enterprises that invest more than 50 million yuan will be rewarded with 5 million yuan. Farmers are not very familiar with these measures. When they learned about these measures, they said that although the current market situation is not good, they still have the idea of expanding production with these preferential measures. This shows that at present, the propaganda of some policies and measures at the grassroots level is not in place, and it needs to be expanded. Make full use of television, radio, internet, newspapers and other media to publicize the relevant provisions of the state on the development of animal husbandry, especially the relevant preferential measures and provisions for the development of animal husbandry in our province, improve farmers' enthusiasm for farming, implement the relevant preferential measures such as the construction of farming communities, and promote the development of animal husbandry in our province.