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Will the epidemic disappear when the temperature rises? Experts say so.

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The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in China has been controlled to some extent. Nowadays, as the temperature rises gradually, people are more full of expectations for the epidemic to recede. Will the rising temperature cause COVID-19 to disappear? In this regard, Zhang Wenhong, head of the senior expert group of COVID-19 Shanghai Expert Rescue Team, said in response to media questions on March 5 that high temperature may have a certain inhibitory effect on the virus, but it is hard to say who will play a greater role in prevention and control and weather in the end, and further research is needed.

Previously, many experts have expressed their views on this issue. 65438 This year122 October, Li Lanjuan, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and a member of National Health Commission Senior Expert Group, said in an interview with the media that the virus itself is not very resistant to the outside world, and it can be effectively inactivated at 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes. In addition, she also said that after the hot weather in May and June, the virus is easy to decrease, and virus infection is easy to occur around the Spring Festival and in winter and spring, which is also an objective natural law. Academician Wang Chen, vice president of China Academy of Engineering, also said in an interview with CCTV that in addition to reasonable isolation and protective measures, warming weather is conducive to the decline of incidence.

In fact, the SARS epidemic that prevailed before 17 disappeared after the arrival of summer. The World Health Organization also regards the warming of the weather as one of the reasons for the disappearance of SARS. The book "How to Stop the International Plague of SARS" published by WHO in 2006 points out that, firstly, case notification is transparent and open; Secondly, all countries try their best to control the flow of sick people; Third, the weather is getting warmer. Therefore, it is widely expected that the current epidemic situation in COVID-19 will repeat the mistakes of SARS virus.

In an interview with Global Times, Wang Peiyu, vice president of Peking University Public Health Research Institute, made a systematic exposition on the relationship between climate warming and the improvement of epidemic situation. He said that in the past, warm weather was really not conducive to the spread of the virus, but we can't rely entirely on it.

Wang Peiyu explained that COVID-19 virus is an RNA virus. Viruses cannot reproduce in the external environment and soil, but only in living organisms such as humans and animals. Therefore, RNA virus is not very stable and may be destroyed and decomposed in the environment. With the increase of temperature, RNA is more easily decomposed and destroyed in the environment. So relatively speaking, the flu and the like are fierce in winter, and will be relieved after the weather gets warmer.

However, Wang Peiyu also said that it's hard to say how lethal it will be to COVID-19 after the weather gets a little warmer. "Now there are cases in warm places such as Guangdong and Singapore, and COVID-19 cannot be completely eliminated by temperature."

How to explain that the current epidemic situation in Africa is relatively light? Wang Peiyu admitted that the high temperature may have played a role in the relatively mild epidemic in Africa, "but it may also be because there are relatively few people from countries with high prevalence in Africa," he said. At present, "it is impossible to tell exactly how much the two have to do."

Wang Peiyu introduced that the epidemic of infectious diseases should meet three links: transmission route, source of infection and susceptible population. After the temperature rises, it will not only affect the source of infection, but also affect the susceptible population, because after the weather gets warmer, people's respiratory resistance will be relatively higher. Therefore, from the perspective of susceptible people, this is also the reason why respiratory diseases are easy to spread when the weather is cold, and the situation has improved after the temperature is relatively warm.

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