The traffic artery in the United States is in a crisis of suspension, which may further impact the US supply chain.

The American supply chain crisis is even worse!

At present, an extreme drought has caused the "artery" of American traffic to fall into a navigation crisis. 10 year 10 On October 20th, CCTV News quoted American media reports that the water level in some sections of the Mississippi River near Memphis fell to 1954, the lowest level since records began. Barge transportation in this section has been closed, and shipping traffic has been seriously blocked. As an artery connecting the north and south of the United States, the Mississippi River not only carries 60% of the grain transportation in the United States, but also undertakes the transportation of important commodities such as oil and fertilizer, which is very important to American trade. Once the drought continues to intensify, it may further impact the US supply chain.

At present, the US stock market is experiencing a dangerous financial reporting season, and the market's punishment for "performance thunder" is particularly severe. Even the "heavy-eyed" Tesla is no exception. Due to the lower-than-expected total revenue in the third quarter, Tesla's share price fell by 9% in intraday trading; In addition, Ericsson, the communication giant of US stocks, also suffered a financial "thunder", and its share price plummeted by over 19%.

At the critical moment, warnings about the economic recession in the United States are becoming more and more intensive. Local time1October 20th, 10, The Wall Street Journal reported that Bezos, the world's second richest man and founder of Amazon, warned that the American economy might go into recession, and advised Americans to prepare for a "storm". In addition, Jamie Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, also warned that the current situation in the United States is "very, very serious" and the American economy may fall into recession in the next six months.

America's "aorta" is urgent.

After the epic drought in Europe, the United States is also facing the test of extreme drought.

10 10 On October 20th, CCTV News quoted American media reports that the Mississippi River, the main transportation artery in the United States, was at its lowest water level in ten years due to the intensified drought in the central and western regions.

Among them, the drought in some sections of the Mississippi River near Memphis is particularly severe. According to the data of the National Weather Service, the water level in the Memphis reach has dropped to the lowest level since 1954 was recorded, and will continue to drop. At present, the river section has been closed to barge transportation, and the shipping traffic has been seriously blocked.

Not long ago, two important waterways of the Mississippi River were interrupted, resulting in more than 2,000 barges stranded.

The main cause of the navigation crisis of the Mississippi River is the extreme drought in the western United States. According to the data tracked by the US Geological Survey, since July this year, 55% of the western United States has been in a severe drought level or above, which is the drought state with the highest warning level.

Among them, the area of Missouri suffering from severe drought continues to increase, doubling in the past two weeks and now reaching 30% of the state's area.

Meteorologists have warned that there will still be no obvious rainfall in the lower reaches of the Mississippi River and the Ohio River basin in the coming week, and the water level is expected to drop further.

According to the data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the severe drought in the midwest of the United States has caused the water level of the Mississippi River to drop to a record low, and the water level of more than 40 tributaries in the basin has dropped.

In the middle reaches of the Mississippi River, almost all the boulders in the riverbed are exposed to the water, and the wreckage of the 1896 sunken merchant ship is even more surprising in the river.

It is worth mentioning that, as the main artery connecting the north and south of the United States, the Mississippi River not only carries 60% of the grain transportation in the United States, but also undertakes the transportation of important commodities such as oil and fertilizer, which is of vital importance to the United States and even global trade.

Affected by the continuous decline of water level, the carrying capacity of each barge in the Mississippi River has been reduced by about 30%, and some sections of the river have even been suspended, which directly leads to a sharp increase in transportation costs. MikeSeyfert, CEO of the National Food and Feed Association, said that due to limited transportation capacity, the cost of barges reached a record level.

At present, it is the harvest season in the United States, and the crisis of the Mississippi River directly affects the transportation of agricultural products, fertilizers and energy in the United States, which may further aggravate the crisis of the supply chain in the United States.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that this protracted La Nina phenomenon will probably last at least until the end of 2022, becoming the first "three peaks" La Nina phenomenon in this century, spanning three winters in the northern hemisphere and three summers in the southern hemisphere. The global extreme weather since 2022 has put pressure on trade in some regions, which may lead to an increase in energy and food prices.

Two giants thundered.

At present, the US stock market is experiencing a dangerous financial reporting season, and the market's punishment for "performance thunder" is particularly severe.

Tesla with thick eyebrows and big eyes is no exception. According to the financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2022 released by Tesla, the total revenue in the third quarter was $265,438+$45.4 million (equivalent to about RMB 65,438+$55,508.6 million), a year-on-year increase of 56%, which was lower than the analyst's expectation of $22.09 billion. This is the first time since the third quarter of 2026 that quarterly revenue was lower than expected, 5438+0.

In addition, in terms of delivery quantity, Tesla delivered 343,830 cars in the third quarter. Although the delivery volume hit a single-season high, it was still lower than the 358,000 vehicles expected by Wall Street.

Affected by this, after the US stock market opened, Tesla's share price opened sharply lower by more than 6%, and then fell all the way, hitting a new low in intraday trading. As of the close of the day, the stock price still fell by 6.6%, and the latest total market value fell back to $649.5 billion. This will also expand the decline to 4 1% in 2022, which is half of the historical high of 20211(414.5 USD/share).

It is worth mentioning that at the earnings conference, Tesla CEO Musk said: "Everyone believes that our market value can far exceed that of Apple, and I think it will even exceed the sum of Apple and Saudi Aramco." As of press time, the total market value of Apple is 2.3 1 trillion dollars, and the total market value of Saudi Aramco is 2.09 trillion dollars, totaling 4.4 trillion dollars.

At the same time, Ericsson, another US communications giant, also suffered a financial "thunder". Its latest financial report shows that the operating profit in the third quarter decreased by 23.94% year-on-year to SEK 765,438.0 billion (US$ 633.05 million), which was significantly lower than the average analyst's expectation (SEK 87.3 billion), and the gross profit margin unexpectedly dropped to SEK 465,438+0.4%.

Affected by this, Ericsson's share price suffered a sharp drop. U.S. stocks opened lower than 17%, and then went down all the way. As of the close of the day, the decline still exceeded 15%, and the latest total market value fell to 1.8 1 billion dollars (about RMB 1.308 billion yuan).

At present, it is the US earnings season, and concerns about the economic recession have begun to penetrate into profit expectations. Some listed companies and Wall Street analysts have lowered their expectations for the next few quarters.

According to FactSet data, analysts cut the profit forecast of the S&P 500 in the third quarter by 6.8%, which is the biggest decline since the second quarter of 2020. Analysts also lowered their expectations for the performance of US stocks in the fourth quarter and 2023.

Citigroup strategists predict that global profits will decrease by 5% year-on-year in 2023, which is consistent with the lower-than-trend global economic growth and rising inflation. Citigroup downgraded the ratings of the United States, Europe and the world more than the upward adjustment, with the downgrade of the United States being the largest.

The second richest man in the world issued a warning

At the critical moment, warnings about the economic recession in the United States are becoming more and more intensive.

Local time1October 20th, 10, The Wall Street Journal reported that Bezos, the world's second richest man and founder of Amazon, warned that the American economy might go into recession, and advised Americans to prepare for a "storm". As a result, Bezos became the latest business leader to sound the alarm of the American economy.

Bezos's warning is a response to David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, who made pessimistic comments on the US economy. He warned that the risks of the US economy are rising, and all American business leaders and ordinary investors need to be prepared accordingly.

It should be pointed out that Bezos is the second richest man in the world. The total market value of Amazon he founded is as high as $65,438 +0.2 trillion, and he is an important participant in the global economy. Therefore, Bezos' warning of the US economic recession immediately triggered market concern and heated discussion.

In addition, Jamie Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, also warned that the current situation in the United States is "very, very serious" and the American economy may fall into recession in the next six months.

The more dangerous warning signal comes from the market. According to the latest data from the US Treasury Department, the yield of 3-month US Treasury bonds is higher than that of 10-year US Treasury bonds for the first time since the outbreak of new coronary pneumonia. Researchers believe that this is the clearest warning signal that the American economy will fall into recession after 6- 18 months.

In the history of the United States, the American economy experienced seven recessions, and the yield curve of 10-year US debt was upside down in three months. Therefore, this indicator has become one of the most critical indicators for Wall Street to predict economic recession. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of new york said that the key part of the yield curve of US bonds may be one of the best indicators to predict the impending recession of economic activities.

As the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates further, the current yield curve seems to highly suggest that the United States will fall into recession. This means that if the yield of 10 US bonds does not soar further soon, the curve reversal may deepen with the end of 2022.

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