The nightmare in the crude oil market is coming. Tropical Storm Claudette is about to hit the Gulf Coast. What will happen?

1. Libya plans to export 1.2 million barrels of crude oil in August. According to the transportation plan, Libya will export 1.8 million barrels of crude oil. Libya remains locked in a civil war and eastern forces have been blocking energy, especially oil, exports since January. Libya's National Oil Company has repeatedly declared force majeure on crude oil exports. This has caused most of Libya's energy output to cease and oil storage tanks to fill up.

2. Russia’s oil production increased from less than 9.4 million barrels per month to nearly 9.8 million barrels per day. Russia plans to increase crude oil production by 400,000 barrels per day as OPEC+ decides to ease production cuts.

3. The earliest tropical storms 13L and 14L in history will hit early next week, or affect the oil-producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico and Texas, and the oil market may fluctuate. It is worth noting that if these two storms develop as expected, they will be the earliest "L"-shaped storms to form in a hurricane season in history. The previous record was Lewis Storm on August 29, 1995. With Tropical Depression and Tropical Storm Laura expected to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico next week, Gulf oil producers are in the early stages of ensuring business safety.

4. Wells Fargo analyst Roger Reed believes that large-scale refinery shutdowns are unlikely before the storm hits the Gulf of Mexico, but many Gulf Coast refineries are in wider "danger" zone". Amid widespread oversupply in the oil market, production shutdowns should be a positive thing from a macro perspective. However, as oil prices are not expected to react to the impact of the storm, this is expected to be a negative event for the directly affected oil-producing countries.

5. Chinese crude oil buyers have chartered about 19 oil tankers and will transport about 37 million barrels of crude oil to China. If all goes according to plan, it will set a new record of 35.2 million barrels of U.S. oil imported in May this year.

Since OPEC+ decided to relax production cuts, Russia plans to increase crude oil production by 400,000 barrels per day. Crude oil production has begun to increase, supply has increased, and crude oil is not good; twin storms may land in the United States early next week, which will have an impact on oil prices in the short term. There is an impact, and the extent of the impact requires special attention to the latest impact; technically, international crude oil has maintained range fluctuations in the past three months, and the fluctuation range has decreased, while domestic crude oil has shown signs of stabilization after a continuous correction.