Live pigs fell by 22%, white stripes fell by 24%, and pork fell by how much? Farmers are equivalent but welcome a pig hair!

November is coming to an end. Recently, the domestic pig breeding market has shown a violent shock. Since late October, the domestic pig price has fallen. After the irrational increase, the official started the regulation mode, and the pig price fell. Although some farmers "saved themselves", under the mismatch of supply and demand, the pig price fell continuously, and farmers were obsessed with equivalence, and finally ushered in.

According to the data of pig price, on November 26th, the average price of live pigs in China bottomed out at 11.1 yuan/kg, and the pig price was about to fall into the "1 yuan era", and the market showed an unexpected decline. Compared with the end of October, the price of live pigs dropped by 3.16 yuan, a drop of 22.34%!

according to the market feedback, the decline of pig prices weakened on November 26th, with a drop rate of only .12 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. Among them, in Northeast China, North China and parts of East China, the pig prices stopped falling and rose one after another, while in Northeast China, the pig prices stopped falling in an all-round way, and in Heijiliao area, the average pig price rose to about 21.5 yuan/kg! In the southern market, the price of pigs continued to decline, and some areas still showed obvious compensatory decline. In high-priced areas, the Sichuan-Chongqing market bottomed out at 22.5 yuan, the Zhejiang market fell to 22.4 yuan/kg, and the Guangdong and Guangdong markets bottomed out at 22.7 yuan/kg!

The center of gravity of the pig price has obviously moved down. However, due to the tragic downward trend of the pig price, the profitability of the breeding end is in jeopardy. Retail investors and secondary fattening in the northern region have reached a "consistent" price performance, and the pig price in the market is expected to rebound from oversold. Personally, I think that the pig price will stop falling and rise in the next 2-3 days, and the compensatory growth performance in the northern region will be obvious. However, the southern market is generally sideways, and the upside space will be weak.

The price of live pigs has dropped significantly this round. Then, what is the price trend of pork and white strips? According to official sources, at this stage, the average ex-factory price of white pigs in designated slaughter enterprises nationwide has dropped to 28.3 yuan/kg, which is more than 9 yuan/kg compared with the high point of last month, and the ex-factory price of white pigs has dropped by over 24.2%!

However, with the price reduction of IOUs, there is very limited room for pork prices to fall back in the domestic terminal market. From the perspective of the national agricultural products market, the average wholesale price of pork is still 33.23 yuan/kg, which is only 3.46 yuan lower than the high point of last month, and the average wholesale price of pork in China is 9.7% lower!

According to the author's understanding, in Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market, on November 26th, the transaction price of white pigs was 14~16 yuan/kg, which was about 3 yuan/kg lower than the high of 17~19 yuan/kg last month! From the wholesale price of pork belly in the market, the price is maintained at 18~2 yuan/kg at this stage, compared with the high of 2~22 yuan/kg last month, and the price has only dropped by 2 yuan/kg!

It can be seen that although the ex-factory prices of live pigs and white strips have declined relatively consistently, pork prices are relatively firm in the downstream wholesale market, among which the wholesale price of pork belly has been reduced only by 2 yuan/kg, and the market has remained at a high level. Due to the distribution at lower levels, the decline in the price of pork purchased by residents is even more limited. At present, the retail price of pork belly is still around 18~24 yuan/kg in the mainstream areas of China. Therefore, Residents have a weak intuitive feeling about pork price reduction, while downstream pork vendors suffer from rising costs and retained profits, which has caused a high price shock of retail pork under multi-level distribution, and the mask problem has further aggravated the poor purchase and sale of downstream markets, and the performance of pork vendors is quite high!

On the other hand, in the breeding system, the pig price has dropped by more than 22% in this round, and the breeding profit has shrunk dramatically. At this stage, due to the high market of soybean meal, the feed cost has risen sharply, and the breeding profit space has been squeezed constantly. Under the mode of self-propagation and self-support, the average profit of pigs has dropped from the high point of 14~15 yuan/head last month to 8~9 yuan/head!

and the performance of blindly pressing the fence at the breeding end is equivalent, in exchange for the "one pig hair" of the pig price! Since November this year, it is difficult to completely improve the problem of masks, and the pressure of poor consumption continues to ferment. The phenomenon of cured meat in the south, which farmers are obsessed with, has been persistently high in the northern and southern regions of China after winter, and the benefits of cured meat have always been difficult to cash. However, due to the large-scale pig enterprises' monthly slaughter plans, and the end of the year, the group pig enterprises are under the pressure of impulsiveness. Therefore, recently, the mood of reduced prices and bags of large-scale pig enterprises has warmed up, which has also caused an oversupply of pig sources in stages.

However, the extremes meet. With the current round of pig prices going down, the price of pork in the downstream market will also be loosened, which may help restore the confidence of the consumer market. However, although the cured meat in the south has not been cashed in centrally, the cycle is delayed. With the coming of the current round of cooling weather in the south, the phenomenon of centralized cured meat will come at the end of the month and early December, and the pig price will still have a strong trend. However, the problem of masks is still hanging in the pig market. Farmers are equivalent but welcome a pig hair! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the picture comes from the Internet!