Relationship between current disastrous weather and environment

There are many kinds of disastrous weather, and the causes of all kinds of disastrous weather are also different. For example, the cold wave: in the Arctic, due to the weak sunlight, the ground and the atmosphere get less heat, and it snows all the year round. In winter, the direct sunlight passes through the equator and reaches the southern hemisphere. The arctic region is colder and wider, and the temperature is generally below MINUS 40℃-50℃. Large-scale cold air masses gather to a certain extent, and under the action of suitable high-altitude circulation, they will invade southward on a large scale, forming cold wave weather.

The influence of weather on agricultural sustainable development is mainly reflected in meteorology and its derivative disasters. The frequency and severity of meteorological disasters in China are determined by its unique natural geographical environment and are closely related to social and economic development. Chinese mainland faces the Pacific Ocean in the east, facing the largest typhoon source in the world, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the west is the highest in the world. The land-sea atmospheric system interacts with each other and has a complex relationship. The weather situation is changeable, and various meteorological disasters occur frequently. China's topography is high in the west and low in the east, and the rainfall is unevenly distributed in time and space, which is easy to form large-scale floods and droughts. China has many conditions for breeding diseases, insects, rats and grasses. With the warming of climate and the aggravation of environmental pollution, biological disasters are quite serious. The mountainous areas, plateaus and hills in China account for more than two thirds of the country. Neotectonic movement and earthquake activity are frequent, and sudden geological disasters such as collapse, landslide and debris flow are almost all over the country. China is also a region with frequent agrometeorological disasters, such as drought, flood, chilling injury, hail, forest fire and frost. In addition, the technical level of agro-meteorological disaster prevention is limited, which makes China's agricultural production always in an unstable state and seriously restricts the sustainable development of China's agriculture.

Agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation system is an indispensable guarantee system for agricultural sustainable development, which includes disaster research, disaster monitoring, disaster information processing, disaster prediction, forecasting, early warning, disaster prevention, disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction. China government attaches great importance to the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation system. After long-term efforts, a working system for preventing various natural disasters has been initially established. The network for monitoring major natural disasters has begun to take shape, and a large number of observation data with scientific research value have been obtained. We have some knowledge about the formation and development of major natural disasters, accumulated some experience in forecasting and made a number of valuable scientific and technological achievements.

In the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" national key science and technology project "Research on early warning and control technology of major agricultural and forestry pests and agrometeorological disasters", the research on early warning and impact assessment control technology of agrometeorological disasters was carried out. Aiming at four disasters: drought in North China, cold damage in Northeast China, waterlogging in Jianghuai and cold damage in South China, a mathematical statistical model combining agrometeorology with weather climatology and agronomy and a simulation model based on growth process are established, and a variety of long, medium and long forecasting models are combined. A database of meteorological, crop and remote sensing information was established; The disaster indexes of drought of winter wheat in North China, waterlogging of wheat and rape in Jianghuai area, chilling injury of corn and rice in Northeast China and chilling injury of banana and litchi in South China were screened out, and the quantitative standards of different disaster levels were established. The technical methods of risk probability estimation of drought, flood, cold damage and cold damage are developed, and the corresponding risk assessment model is constructed. The yield loss evaluation methods of drought, flood, chilling injury and low temperature chilling injury were developed. The risk zoning method of low temperature chilling injury and drought remote sensing monitoring and evaluation technology based on G 1S are studied. Agricultural meteorological disaster control technology has also achieved phased results. These achievements have greatly improved the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of agriculture in China, and provided a reliable and effective guarantee for the sustainable and stable development of agriculture in China.

In this paper, the formation mechanism and forecasting theory of major weather disasters in China are studied, and a large-scale background physical model of heavy rain in the Yangtze River basin is put forward, especially the synoptic model has made remarkable progress. The multi-scale physical model of typical Meiyu front rainstorm system is completely revealed by using field test data, and the research on its formation mechanism has made progress. Many achievements have been made in the theory and method of satellite remote sensing inversion of rainstorm system. The mesoscale rainstorm model with independent intellectual property rights in China is combined with the three-dimensional variational assimilation system to form a mesoscale rainstorm forecasting model system. The real-time test has achieved encouraging forecast results, showing its strong ability of precipitation and rainstorm forecast.

In recent years, meteorological departments have built new national and provincial meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning systems and meteorological disaster information collection and processing systems, and also established meso-scale disastrous weather monitoring and early warning systems in some provinces with frequent disastrous weather, which have played an important role in disaster prevention, resilience and relief. A meteorological service system consisting of weather forecast and early warning, climate prediction and analysis, scientific and technological radiation, agricultural meteorology, urban environmental meteorology, forest fire danger meteorology, and artificial influence on local weather has been established, and a variety of service network systems such as decision-making service, public service, professional special service and technical service have been established, providing reliable scientific basis for governments at all levels to direct disaster prevention and relief, greatly improving China's ability to defend against weather and climate disasters.