Typhoon Bawei Weather Network No.8

In August, the "typhoon nest" collapsed, and three typhoon embryos in the northwest Pacific continued to brew, with codes of 90W, 9 1W and 92W respectively. Judging from the current situation, 90W is the most likely to develop into a typhoon. The United States Joint Early Warning Center has issued an early warning for Typhoon Bavi on the 8th, so the early warning will be generated in advance.

According to the data of Japan Meteorological Agency, it has indeed become a low-pressure area, with the central air pressure of 1006hpa. It is expected to be upgraded to TD on August 22nd, so the Japan Meteorological Agency also supports the development of this typhoon embryo. Next, focus on the development of this typhoon embryo, which can basically be identified as the eighth typhoon "Bawei" this year, and it is unlikely to change.

According to the satellite image, the structure of 90W is very obvious now, and it is brewing or exploding. According to GFS simulation, 90W is expected to develop into a pressure value of 990hpa on August 22nd at the earliest. If the wind speed reaches, it may become the eighth typhoon "Bawei" this year as soon as tomorrow. The predicted peak intensity of GFS is 943hpa, so it is very likely that this is the 1 super typhoon in the northwest Pacific this year and the 1 super typhoon in August, and the areas where the strong period passes include Japan, South Korea and North Korea. At the same time, it may eventually pass through the northeast of China and then disappear in Russia, so there may be typhoons in the northeast. Of course, when the typhoon comes, the wind and rain may follow.

On the whole, according to the situation of GFS, this may be a typhoon affecting five countries, and journey to the south has a large development area, which is the result given by GFS. Then look at the data from the European numerical center. It still insists that the pressure value will reach 994hpa on August 23rd, which means that EC is most likely to form Typhoon Bawei on August 23rd, but the peak pressure is not as strong as GFS, only 972hpa, so EC thinks that it is impossible to develop into a super typhoon, and then it will be South Korea or North Korea, but the specific approach point is a bit vague, so we can only look at the back. However, as you may have seen, EC is closer to the coast of China, basically from the Yellow Sea to the north, not from the East China Sea to GFS.

Similarly, the simulation path of the European Numerical Center is to enter the northeast of China and then disappear in Russia. Therefore, both institutions simulate that it will affect the northeast, depending on whether it will change in the later period. On the whole, there is a great possibility of downflow in a large area of East China, which may aggravate today's high temperature weather. The following focuses on the development of typhoon 90W.

As you may have seen, it seems that another typhoon embryo will appear near Japan after 90W becomes a typhoon northward, in which both GFS and EC have simulated, in which GFS predicted that this embryo may directly develop into a typhoon on August 29th, and EC also simulated that it will reach the pressure value of 998hpa on August 29th, so there are signs of typhoon No.9.

Of course, this time is far away, and there may be changes in the later period. You can refer to it here. Today, the situation is mainly 90W, and it can be basically confirmed that it is the eighth typhoon "Bawei" this year. This is the overall situation. Relatively speaking, there is still room for change, and although the paths of GFS and EC are basically the same, the intensity of the final development of typhoon embryos is still very different.

Therefore, we should continue to focus on observation, and try our best to refer to the data of Japan Meteorological Agency in the Northwest Pacific. Whether it is finally defined as typhoon Bawei 8 depends on the statement of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Japan Meteorological Agency has been "bad" once this year. A typhoon embryo in the offshore area has exceeded the basic naming standard, but it is quite rare to give a name.

Generally speaking, typhoons in August are still relatively active. After the formation of five typhoons, three typhoon embryos are now formed. Although only one 90W typhoon embryo has become a new typhoon according to the existing situation, it still shows that the ocean area fluctuates greatly and the tropical disturbance develops rapidly, and there are more than six typhoons in August. If 90W becomes Typhoon Bawei No.8, six typhoons will have formed in August, which is relatively more, and this is the beginning of late August. We also see from the data of supercomputer that Typhoon Mesak 9 may suddenly appear and form, but according to the trend, it is also near Japan, and it is unlikely to affect China. We will continue to follow up later.