Is the abnormal atmospheric circulation related to the greenhouse effect?

The global climate has frequently gone to extremes, and this summer's "hot water" has brought a series of unexpected effects, which makes people worry and reflect. What's wrong with the climate?

The abnormal weather surprised most people in the northern hemisphere. Russia, which has always been cool, has been sweltering for two consecutive months, and Pakistan, which has always lacked rain, has been flooded. China rarely experiences the double test of "water and fire", and geological disasters occur frequently in many areas.

Out of rigor, no scientist will jump to conclusions about the root cause of the current abnormal weather. Because climate research is a statistical science, only when similar high temperatures and floods are repeated at least once every five years can they be regarded as climate signals of global warming. However, if we analyze the trend of extreme weather in recent years, it is not difficult to find that their frequency is getting higher and higher.

Extreme weather activities are abnormal.

"The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events this year is extremely unusual," Kassem Asral, head of the Global Weather Research Program of the World Meteorological Organization, told Xinhua News Agency. "Extreme weather, such as floods and droughts, is part of the natural system, but the difference this year lies in its greater intensity, longer duration and wider influence."

Beermann, director of the research office of the Russian Water Conservancy Meteorological Center, also believes that atmospheric circulation anomaly is a global climate phenomenon, which not only causes abnormal weather in Russia, but also causes severe cold in parts of South America and heavy rain in parts of Pakistan and China. He said: "This global atmospheric circulation anomaly has never been observed before this year."

Asral thinks that we can't jump to conclusions about the deep-seated causes of extreme weather this year, but in the past 20 years, computer simulation research results have always shown that if human activities continue to warm the earth, extreme weather events will occur more frequently and have greater destructive power.

Global warming climate "chaos"

Asral said that in the past 100 years, human activities led to the continuous warming of the earth, which made the temperature of the earth's atmosphere and ocean rise by 1 degree Celsius compared with a century ago. With the increase of ocean temperature, more water vapor will evaporate into the atmosphere, and with the increase of atmospheric temperature, it will contain more water vapor. If the air keeps normal circulation, it is unlikely that the average rainfall in a large area will increase. But once there is congestion, the rainfall in one place drops sharply, and there will be high temperature and drought in another place. This is the relationship between extreme weather phenomena and global climate change.

Regarding the intense summer heat in Russia, World Meteorological Organization President Alexander Bedritz believes that the abnormal weather in Russia this summer may be a "vivid" example of global warming. He said: "Although it is not yet possible to accurately analyze how the global warming process affects the frequency of abnormal weather through statistical data, there is a certain correlation. Although the current means cannot predict whether this year's hot weather will reappear next year, it is certain that similar hot weather will be more frequent. "

We must be normal when dealing with extremes.

Alexander ginzburg, deputy director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that weather anomalies will increase in the next five years to 10. It is an obvious fact that the atmospheric circulation is unbalanced and in the process of readjustment, so we should be prepared for new extreme weather disasters.

According to the data of China National Climate Center, extreme weather events such as drought, flood, rain and snow are related to climate change. For example, in the past 100 or 50 years, under the background of global warming, there were four major meteorological disasters, namely drought, heavy precipitation, typhoon and high temperature heat wave.

The forecast of climate trend in flood season by China Meteorological Bureau at the beginning of this year shows that the national temperature and precipitation are obviously abnormal than normal, and there is a great possibility of extreme meteorological disasters. The current situation has completely verified the prediction.

Unbearable high temperatures and relentless floods should alert mankind and actively seek countermeasures. Besides, we may not be able to control extreme weather at present, but at least we can reduce and prevent disasters. The frequent occurrence of "fire and water" disasters this summer has prompted people to put "coping with the normalization of extreme weather" on the important agenda. (Yang Kai)