The global grain market has ushered in a "big change"! This year, Brazil's grain will be "powered"

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American grain has always occupied an important position in the global grain market.

on average, the United States exports about a quarter of the world's total grain trade every year, of which corn ranks first in terms of both output and export, while wheat and soybeans rank second, and American beans also account for more than a third of the world's exports.

It can be said that for a long time, the export status of American grain has not been shaken, but by 223, things have changed.

what has changed?

the first change is that the global grain trade pattern has changed.

since the outbreak of the global epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the prices of bulk commodities such as grain have soared. Although the prices of bulk commodities have declined in the second half of last year, there are still many factors affecting grain as a special commodity.

On the one hand, with the increase of energy and other prices, the price of chemical fertilizers soared, which made the global planting cost generally increase substantially, which obviously supported the bottom of food prices.

On the other hand, as food is the basis of survival, countries attach great importance to food security, and the mood of food protectionism is rising, and the demand for food is increasing.

the second change is the disturbance of extreme weather to the grain market.

In recent two years, extreme weather has occurred frequently, and extreme droughts and floods have continuously interfered with grain production, which has also kept the global grain supply tight.

under this background, the grain output of the United States has also been disturbed.

For example, the US Department of Agriculture previously released a supply and demand report, which greatly reduced the output of American beans and American corn due to the drought.

On the contrary, Brazil's grain production is making full efforts, and it may surpass the United States in some areas.

1. Brazil may surpass the United States to become the world's largest corn exporter

The United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine have always been the world's major corn exporters, but among the four major exporters, three exporters have experienced "turmoil".

the United States is the world's largest corn producer, accounting for about 31.7% of the world's annual corn production, and is also the world's largest corn exporter.

in the 197s and 198s, nearly 8% of the corn exported from the world came from the United States, and by 25, the proportion of corn exported from the United States also accounted for about 6%. Although it declined year by year, it also accounted for about 33% in recent years, and it still ranked first in the global corn export.

However, due to the weather and various factors, the export volume of American corn has been shrinking after the expected reduction in production.

In p>222/23, the export volume of corn in the United States dropped by nearly 12 million tons compared with the previous year, and the supply declined weakly.

Argentina is also an important corn producer in the world. Although Argentina's corn production accounts for only 4.6% in the world, it accounts for 22.4% in exports, so it also plays an important role in the global corn supply.

However, due to the influence of dry weather, Argentina's corn production in the new season has been continuously lowered, which has also reduced the export volume by about 3 million tons.

As the fourth largest corn exporter in the world, Ukraine's annual corn export accounts for about 16.9% of the world's total. At the same time, Ukraine has been the largest source of corn imports in China for a long time.

However, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the corn production in Ukraine has dropped sharply.

in January, USDA predicted that Ukraine's corn production in 222/23 would be about 27 million tons, down by 15 million tons year-on-year. However, according to Ukrainian official prediction, the actual corn harvest in 222/23 may fall below 25 million tons, because of the conflict, Ukraine is in short supply of personnel, agricultural machinery and diesel oil, which will lead to large corn production areas.

Due to farmers' lack of money and insufficient supply of electricity and diesel oil, the sown area of new season corn in Ukraine may decrease by 3%-35% year-on-year, which will further reduce the output and export of corn in Ukraine.

While the three major corn producing countries have issued production reduction expectations, Brazil's corn is expected to have a record harvest.

According to the forecast of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Brazil's corn output is expected to reach 125 million tons in 222/23, up by 12.26 million tons year-on-year, and the export volume of corn will also increase to about 45 million tons, up by about 8 million tons year-on-year.

Especially after Brazil started exporting corn to China, corn exports increased rapidly, and China quickly became the biggest buyer of Brazilian corn.

in this trade-off, Brazil is expected to surpass the United States to become the world's largest corn exporter.

2. The daily soybean yield in Brazil will increase or become a foregone conclusion.

Not only corn will exert its strength, but soybeans will also be by going up one flight of stairs.

For a long time, the soybean exports of the United States and Brazil accounted for nearly 8% of the global soybean exports.

but similarly, the expected output of American soybeans was greatly lowered in the supply and demand report in January, but it was not changed much in the report in February, making the prospect of American soybeans still confusing.

However, Brazilian soybeans, on the other hand, have a high probability of increasing production.

due to the increase of planting area and the good crop growth in the three main producing States in the central and western regions, there is no doubt that the soybean output in Brazil will reach more than 15 million tons.

Similarly, China is the largest soybean buyer in the world, and it may further occupy the market share of American soybeans under the situation of strong soybean production increase in Brazil.

3. Brazil's grain exports are making great efforts

Of course, the sharp increase in Brazil's grain exports is not an accidental phenomenon. Brazil's grain export capacity has always been strong.

According to statistics, from 2 to 22, Brazil's grain exports accounted for about 14.9% of the world's total, and in 22 it was as high as 22.2%, surpassing the United States' 21.5%, so Brazil has also become the country with the largest grain export revenue in the world.

Among them, soybean is the best-performing crop. In 22, Brazil's soybean exports will account for more than half of the world's total, ranking first, while corn and cotton still have great room for growth.

therefore, it is not surprising that Brazil's grain exports can make rapid efforts under the turbulent global grain market.

4. What is the impact on China?

So, with the occurrence of this series of changes, what impact will it have on China's grain imports?

Among the imported cereals in China, the proportion of soybean and corn is very high, especially the external dependence of soybean is over 85%, and it is also the crop with the largest annual import of imported cereals in China.

As for corn, affected by market supply and demand and inflation in recent years, it has also exceeded the import quota for three consecutive years, and the demand is also at a high level.

With the development of Brazil's grain export, it may have two impacts on China's grain import:

First, it further expands China's grain import sources, making them more diversified, thus making food security more secure to a certain extent.

Especially after Ukraine's corn export was blocked and production was reduced, it changed the monopoly pattern of American corn.

Second, Brazil's grain is relatively more cost-effective, which further reduces the import cost of China's grain.

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