Will it be warm this winter?

It should be neither El Nino year nor La Nina year. After El Nino, there will be La Nina. But in 2007,

2008 is the year of La Nina.

Judging from the north-south climate this summer, the north-south climate is still normal, so it also shows that this year is neither La Nina year nor El Ni? o year. It can also be seen that there will be no snowstorm this winter, so the temperature is mild this winter and it will not be too cold.

The following year refers to 2007.

In the first half of the year, the national climate showed a diversified trend. After research and analysis, climate experts initially believe that La Nina phenomenon is the main reason that affects China's climate in the first half of the year.

Zhao Zhenguo, a researcher at the National Climate Center, believes that this year, due to the La Ni? a phenomenon, the water temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific is low and the meridional circulation in East Asia is abnormal, resulting in the northerly airflow prevailing in northern China since the spring, while the warm and humid airflow in the southeast is relatively weak. It leads to frequent strong cold waves and strong winds in the north, but the rainfall continues to be less and the temperature remains high.

According to statistics, sandstorms occurred frequently in northern China this spring. From March to April, a large-scale sandstorm 12 occurred, affecting northwest, north, northeast, Huanghuai and even Jianghuai areas. In May, there were three regional or local sandstorms in northwest China, which were rare in the same period of nearly 50 years. Chen Yu, a climate expert, said that in the past 50 years, the frequency of dusty weather in northwest China has increased year by year.

Lu, a senior engineer of the National Climate Center, said that since 300 AD, there have been five frequent sandstorm events in China, each lasting about 90 years. In the past 10 years, sandstorm events showed a significant increase trend.

Talking about the causes of sandstorms, Chen Yu believes that the formation and scale of sandstorms depend on two factors: environment and climate. From the environmental point of view, the increasingly serious desertification problem can not be ignored. However, "there is no smoke without fire". From the climate point of view, the temperature in the northern region has risen rapidly since February this year, with a high range of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, which led to the early thawing of soil and the emergence of a large number of dry soil layers. At this time, the rainy season has not yet arrived. Affected by La Ni? a phenomenon, windy weather occurred continuously in the northern region, and the gale immediately formed a sandstorm.

High temperature and little rain in the north are also hot topics. From March to May this year, the national average temperature reached 196 1, which was the highest in the same period, especially in the north. Since February, there has been less precipitation in most areas north of the Yangtze River. For four consecutive months, the total precipitation was less than 100 mm, and less than 50 mm in North China and Northwest China, which was more than 50% less than normal. Especially from February to April, the average precipitation in the northern region was only 23 mm, which was the least since the founding of the People's Republic of China. The combined effect of high temperature and little rain led to the rapid decline of soil water content in the northern region, and the worst spring drought occurred since the 1990s.

Zhao Zhenguo said that since 1992, except 1998, the precipitation in North China from February to April in other years was lower than the multi-year average, especially since June last year, the precipitation in North China has been less and the soil moisture has been very poor. At this time, under the influence of La Nina phenomenon, the northerly airflow prevails in northern China, while the warm and humid airflow in the southeast is relatively weak. Coupled with the unfavorable cooperation of cold and warm air, the ideal rainfall conditions in the northern region have not been formed, resulting in continuous lack of rain and drought.

During the drought-resistant period in the north, heavy rains occurred frequently in some areas south of the Yangtze River. In this regard, Lu pointed out that the heavy rain in the south is the result of local strong convective weather, and the precipitation is normal in a wide range of river basins.

When talking about the overall climate characteristics and development trend of China, Lu said that from the global climate change trend in recent years, the overall trend is diversified, which is mainly the result of the alternating effects of El Ni? o and La Ni? a phenomena under the background of global warming. In this environment, China cannot be a peaceful "Xanadu". He said that the national meteorological department is paying close attention to the future atmospheric climate changes and making timely forecasts to minimize the losses caused by disastrous climate.