Weather in soybean producing areas in the United States

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When everyone was harvesting wheat and corn, the soybean market fluctuated greatly.

Generally speaking, the sudden drop in international soybean prices has led to the decline of domestic soybeans, and with the continuous auction of domestic soybeans, the trend of the domestic soybean market is confusing.

What happened?

1, US beans fell

The decline of American beans is a strong signal.

At present, the eyes of global soybeans are focused on American soybeans. On the one hand, the foreign dependence of domestic soybeans has reached more than 80%. On the other hand, it has basically become a fact that soybeans in South America are affected by severe dry weather. Brazil, Argentina and other countries have lowered their soybean production expectations, and even Paraguay, the world's fourth largest soybean producer, has cut production by half and started importing soybeans from other countries.

So soybeans all over the world are concentrated in the United States.

At this time, however, the United States published an investigation report and fried the pot.

According to the report, due to the high price of chemical fertilizers, American farmers are overwhelmed and prefer to plant soybeans instead of corn. Generally speaking, the amount of chemical fertilizer required by soybeans is only about half that of corn and wheat.

In this case, American farmers are more inclined to grow soybeans.

According to the report, in 2022, the planting area of American beans was 90.955 million mu, higher than the previous market expectation of 88.727 million mu.

The quarterly inventory of American beans is 19.3 1 100 million bushels, which is also higher than the previous market expectation of19.438+100 million bushels.

As a result, the price of American beans plummeted.

2. Weather interference

However, it is obvious that there are few unilateral quotes in the market.

In the negative situation of the growth of soybean planting area in the United States, another news made the trend of soybeans confusing.

According to the national oceanic and atmospheric administration's weather forecast for the country from April to June, drought and high temperature may occur simultaneously.

This means that the growth of soybeans will be threatened, which will undoubtedly become an excellent theme for future weather speculation.

This also laid the foundation for soybean near weakness and far strength.

Step 3 increase supply

Generally speaking, our grain market is relatively independent and is not obviously affected by international food prices, but soybeans are an exception.

When the international soybean situation fluctuates, domestic soybeans also fluctuate greatly.

The recent repeated decline of domestic soybeans has also cast a veil over the trend of domestic soybeans.

One of the primary reasons for the decline in domestic soybeans is that the market is worried that a large number of soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong from April to May, so they have sold off the spot. Coupled with the continuous auction of policy soybeans, soybean supply increased for a short time and soybean prices fell.

On the other hand, under the policy of "expanding seeds" this year, the soybean planting area has increased greatly, which has also aggravated the shadow of the increase in soybean supply and the inability of soybean prices to rise.

Although, on the surface, soybeans are more negative, the new agricultural concept holds that soybeans cannot be considered to have gone, and soybeans still have strong upward momentum.

First, although it is true that soybean planting area has increased, there is a big gap between soybean yield per mu and corn. Usually, farmers will use better land to grow corn, while relatively cheap land will be used to grow soybeans.

Although the planting area has increased, we should know that this is based on the decline of soybean planting area and output last year. The safety of the three staple foods should be guaranteed, so we will not sacrifice the staple food output for planting soybeans.

This means that soybean production is relatively limited.

Second, from a global perspective, soybean supply continues to be tight.

Although the planting area of American beans has threatened to increase, it is still too early to judge in early April, and it is not ruled out that there will be changes in the future.

More importantly, under the current high oil prices, the demand for biofuels in the United States is still strong.

The data show that in 20021-2022, the total soybean oil used to produce biodiesel in the United States was 4.85 million tons, up 2 1% year-on-year, accounting for about 4 1% of the total soybean oil production in the United States.

This also means that under the strong demand of biofuels, the follow-up trend of American soybeans will obviously not be a calm and one-sided situation, and it is bound to set off waves again.

Therefore, the "storm" of soybeans has obviously not really begun. In addition, the current spring sowing is just around the corner, and the subsidies for farmers to grow crops are actually limited. More importantly, they are more influenced by price. Therefore, under the tone of increasing production and expanding soybean production in an all-round way, it is difficult for soybean prices to fall sharply.

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