my country has global tropical cyclone forecasting capabilities. What is the role of this capability? What's the practical significance?

On the afternoon of August 29, local time, the Category 4 storm "Ida" made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, USA. When it made landfall, the wind force was about 67 meters/second, which was equivalent to a powerful typhoon. The China Meteorological Administration used the GRAPES_GFS Global Assimilation Forecasting System to be updated to forecast tropical cyclones affecting waters outside my country for the first time.

On September 1, the GRAPES_GFS global assimilation forecasting system software independently developed in my country completed a version update. After the upgrade, my country will have the ability to predict tropical cyclones on a global scale. While subversively innovating the "Belt and Road" and developing a maritime power, it will also benefit my country and people around the world who are affected by tropical cyclones.

“This is also an ongoing change.” Ma Suhong, the person in charge of the important scientific research and development and business management system construction team for global tropical cyclone standard forecasting, introduced in detail that after the version update, in my country, for tropical cyclone forecasting, The scope of cyclone forecasting will expand from the previous Northwest Pacific and South China Sea to the entire world. It will not only fill the gap in tropical cyclone forecasting in other areas, but also means that my country has the ability to detect and forecast global tropical cyclones.

The R&D department also developed new eddy current reset technology through the four-dimensional variational assimilation system, optimizing the tropical cyclone data with relatively long intervals in the past into hour-by-hour data continuous assimilation, promoting The forecast bias of tropical cyclone tracks has been significantly reduced, and the forecasting ability has been significantly enhanced. In addition, the upgraded global model also solved the previous difficult problem of identifying and positioning the "eye" of tropical cyclones when the electric field conditions weakened or the underlying surface conditions were complicated, further improving the ability to predict the path of tropical cyclones. .

It is understood that in accordance with the global forecast requirements for service products, the R&D department has not only developed and designed products such as global infrared and water vapor weather maps, but also for the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific. The development and design of regional products in key water areas have strongly supported the progress of global monitoring, global forecasting, and global service projects.

For my country’s typhoon forecasting business process, the upgraded global model can complement the regional typhoon model. The global model can give more accurate mid- and long-term path forecasts, while the regional typhoon model can "see" more clearly the typhoon intensity, structural forecast, and wind and rain forecast of the typhoon.