Why does futures cotton continue to rise? What is the trend in the next few days?

From the beginning of this year to September 7th, domestic cotton futures prices have increased by more than 14%, of which the most amazing increase only occurred in the past two weeks. Take the trend of Zheng Mian index as an example, it has soared by more than 10% in the last two weeks. In other words, in the past two weeks, Zheng Mian has created an increase of about 80% this year.

"Factors such as reduced cotton production, unfavorable weather, improved textile production and marketing situation, rising acquisition costs, capital speculation, strong international cotton prices, and rising prices of other agricultural products have all led to this round of cotton bull market." Tao Jinfeng, deputy general manager of R&D department of Donghua Futures, said.

Weather factors seem to be the main driving force to accelerate the rise of cotton prices. According to the data of Xinhu futures, the harvest period of new cotton in general years is from the end of August to the beginning of June 1 1. However, the growth progress of new cotton this year is later than in previous years 10~ 15 days, and the final harvest may be delayed by about half a month.

Liu Qing, an analyst with the company, said that good weather is especially needed in the final stage of cotton growth. For example, some areas in the north have begun to cool down, which may affect cotton production this year.

Bohai Futures Industry Center conducted field research in Xinjiang, Yangtze River valley and cotton-producing areas in North China in July and August this year. The results show that the cotton output in China is expected to decrease by about 1 10,000 tons in 2065438/201year.

While the output is decreasing, the high price of newly listed new cotton also contributes to the "burning" cotton futures price. Liu Qing said that at present, new cotton in some producing areas has entered the harvesting stage, and the open-scale price of seed cotton has been above 4 yuan/kg. If converted into 328 grade four cotton, the price is around 1.78 million ~1.80 million yuan/ton. The data obtained from the inspection of China Cotton Information Center is even higher. According to the investigation, the existing cotton purchasing enterprises in Xinjiang have offered the purchase price of 4.2 yuan/Jin.

At the same time, the national reserve auction is still in full swing. Judging from several auctions held in September, the highest transaction price of used cotton has exceeded 1.94 million yuan/ton, which is also higher than the new high set by the main contract of cotton futures recently. According to industry sources, the main contract of cotton futures in the future is expected to hit the 20,000 yuan/ton mark.