Old wheat "bottomed out", new wheat "opened higher", and international wheat prices rose and fell. Will there be a bumper harvest of wheat this year?

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In the last article, we analyzed the reasons for the recent decline in corn prices:

One of the important reasons is that at present, the new wheat is listed, and the market collection points are concentrated on the new wheat, and there are not a few people who have moved to the wheat market.

On the other hand, the price of new wheat has just been listed and is unstable. According to the principle that rations are not used, the fluctuation of corn price is influenced by wheat price, so the price of new wheat is unstable and the price of corn is bound to fluctuate.

So, what will be the trend of wheat this year?

I think this year's wheat can be described in three words: not simple.

Why do you say that?

1, the price of old wheat hit record highs and hit bottom one after another.

If you don't compare with others, compare with yourself. This year's wheat can be described as "unprecedented".

In normal years, the price of wheat is about 1. 1- 1.2 yuan/kg, and it will be higher when it rises above 1.3 yuan.

But this year, the ideal of wheat is ambitious, not only surpassing 1.3 yuan, but even rapidly surpassing 1.5 yuan, 1.6 yuan and 1.7 yuan, and even approaching 1.8 yuan for a time. Although it finally fell back, the main price also fell to 1.65- 1.7 yuan.

Compared with previous years, the price of wheat this time is absolutely high.

However, with the beginning of May, new wheat began to be listed one after another. As we all know, agriculture has a characteristic, that is, in the harvest season, crops tend to be listed centrally, which leads to a phased increase in supply. So at this time, because the market is short-term oversupply, prices tend to fall, whether it is corn or wheat.

This year is no exception.

With the listing of new wheat, the price of old wheat began to fall.

However, the recent decline has gradually narrowed, and the subsequent decline is expected to be limited.

First, although new wheat is listed one after another, it cannot be used immediately. In this process, the old wheat still has demand, so it has price support;

Second, since last year, the cost of agricultural materials such as land rent, chemical fertilizer and pesticide has been rising, and the rising cost of planting has also pushed up the price of wheat.

2. It is a foregone conclusion that the new wheat will "open higher", and the probability of "going higher" is also great.

With the listing of new wheat, the focus of the market gradually shifted to new wheat.

Judging from the current price of the new wheat scale, it is much higher than the previous years and the purchasing and storage price, and it is appropriate to "open higher".

But then two changes will happen:

First, as mentioned above, when grain is harvested, it often faces centralized listing, so it is often the time when prices are most likely to fall.

Wheat is no exception.

At present, a large number of wheat has not yet been listed, and it is still in the critical period of its final growth. Therefore, the state has also introduced many policies to ensure the high yield of wheat, which is also one of the key points of market collection.

Therefore, the mentality of snapping up at this time should not be too strong. Everyone is waiting for the centralized listing of wheat and the price will fall.

However, due to the high planting cost and the bottom of corn price, I am afraid that the time and extent of the decline in the price of new wheat will not be too long or too big.

Secondly, we have also noticed that there are many buyers of wheat this year, including state-owned enterprises and large trading groups, including many large enterprises and traders with strong capital and warehousing strength.

As we all know, capital will only flow to profitable places, so it also shows from the side that this year's wheat market will be good. If many parties work together, wheat is likely to turn "high".

The international wheat price has gone up again.

Compared with the situation of domestic wheat, the international wheat market is more tense.

First of all, Russia and Ukraine are big wheat exporters in the world, and their export volume accounts for a large proportion in the world. With the outbreak of conflicts and people's concerns about wheat supply, countries have to step up their procurement of wheat, and the demand has surged, leading to a sharp rise in wheat prices.

Secondly, objectively speaking, affected by the weather, the output of major wheat producing countries this year is indeed less than expected.

Needless to say, Ukraine, America, Canada, France, etc. Are adversely affected by the weather.

Third, the market once pinned all its hopes on Indian wheat, but India suffered from the once-in-a-century ultra-high temperature weather, which made Indian wheat also tottering.

However, just last week, India suddenly announced a ban on wheat exports, which once again caused a surge in international wheat news, hitting the daily limit of 127.5 USD/bushel, reaching the highest level in the past two months.

Judging from the international market situation, this fluctuation is not temporary, and it is likely to continue all the time, which also contains many uncertain factors, making the global wheat market even more precarious.

In this case, although the domestic wheat price has not been directly affected, it is unlikely to fall sharply when the international wheat price keeps hitting new highs.

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