Is it cold or warm this winter? Expert analysis

According to expert analysis, it will be warmer in winter in 2024.

According to the analysis of meteorologists, in the summer of 2023, the weather was extremely hot. Since June, the temperature has soared to 42.8 degrees Celsius for a long time. This is an unprecedented hot summer in history. In this way, the probability of warm winter in China will increase, so it will not be too cold, so it is inferred that the winter in 2024 will be warmer.

Because El Nino has greatly pushed up the temperature rise, 2024 is the year after El Nino, and extreme weather will become more obvious. Historically, such as "Super Plum Storm" in 2020, 1998 and 20 16, floods have also occurred in southern China. Therefore, 2024 is likely to become a hotter year, and extreme weather may be more frequent and severe.

Brief introduction to the causes of warm winter

1, China is in a warm period.

The temperature changes periodically. According to the statistics of meteorological data in the last hundred years, there is a cold and warm cycle in China for about 30 years. It was cold before the 1920s, warm in the 1920s-40s, cold in the 1950s-1970s, and warm after the 1980s, and China is still in this warm period.

2. Greenhouse effect

Since the industrialization of the last century, due to the influence of human activities, the content of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased rapidly, leading to a significant increase in global temperature. The continuous warm winter in China is happening against the background of global warming. China is located at the southern end of the warmer region in eastern Siberia, and the warmer climate in China is an integral part of the warmer climate in the world.