Will Xi 'an house prices go up? Please analyze 20 16-2020 from social factors such as cost, supply and demand.

1, project cost, government, policy. During 2008-20 13, the prices of major building materials rose. After 14, the prices of most major building materials decreased or remained flat, because the proportion of construction cost to the total cost was very small, and the labor cost would increase slightly, but it only increased by several hundred yuan per square meter, accounting for a smaller proportion. 16 the price of building materials may continue to decline, and the construction cost will basically not push up the price. The government and policies allow developers to reduce prices, so that developers do not pursue high profits, small profits but quick turnover. This is also for the sake of developers. The state has begun to encourage developers to reduce prices, which is conducive to reducing housing prices to a balanced position. Developers who cut prices first can sell higher prices, and those who cut prices later may face more severe financial problems.

2. The relationship between supply and demand, aging and low fertility rate of women. Xi 'an has an elderly population over 60 years old1256,800, accounting for 14.9% of the city's total population. Xi's population aging is entering a period of rapid development, and the aging, aging and empty nest are further intensified. The aggravation of aging will inevitably increase the backlog of second-hand houses, and there have been many cases of treating diseases with low-priced houses; The number of women of childbearing age and the fertility rate in Shaanxi Province have been declining. According to the available fertility rate of 20 10, it has dropped from 1. 13 in 2005 to 1.05, which is lower than the national average level of 1. 18, and far lower than the developed countries' normal fertility range. In the long run, the number of important buyers in these cities will inevitably decline, and the future real estate prospects in 10 will be even more bleak.

3, investment appreciation, smog. In recent years, environmental pollution and haze weather have become more and more serious. Xi 'an is located in a terrain that borders Shanxi and Henan in the east and Qinling Mountains in the south. In autumn and winter, pollutants are not circulated smoothly, and it is easy to accumulate in a large area near Xi 'an. The proportion of haze or severe haze weather is increasing in a year. Xi is no longer the first choice for real estate investors. They pay more attention to the cities with good weather in the southeast coast, and the richer real estate speculators will not choose Xi 'an because they know better. During 2003-20 13, everyone thought that "the house is the best investment to preserve and increase value", which is well-founded. It depends on the time stage and interest, but after 15, it may become a greater risk, because the price of the house has decreased, which is just suitable for investment, because in most cities from 13 to 14, and the interest rate of the house price will show a downward trend in the future. This kind of investment in house purchase is not only unable to preserve the value, but also has a great possibility of asset shrinkage. We should be absolutely cautious. Now that Hong Kong's housing prices have plummeted, Japan and the United States have experienced enough. Will the mainland be an exception? This is the economic law, without exception, it is only a matter of time, depending on who falls on it.

4. "High-speed economic development and enhanced sense of enjoyment have led to shortened living time and increased market demand" and "the surge in luxury consumption has contributed to soaring housing prices". These two statements mean that people with conditions can exchange small houses for big houses, which is a reasonable demand, but it will not have much impact on the demand for real estate, because ordinary wealthy families will sell small houses when they change big houses, and those who are really rich will buy high-priced villas, which is also the reason why the villa market is hot.

5. "Urbanization drives housing prices to rise" and "China city is in a period of rapid development of demolition and construction", which are similar and basically correct, but urban construction needs funds. Where does the money come from, and it will eventually come from ordinary buyers? If the country doesn't control the housing price well, a lot of money will go to real estate developers, which can't serve the urbanization process and high-tech development well. The soaring housing prices have brought the urbanization process into an embarrassing stage, because all those who can buy a house in the past few years have already bought, as well as those who can borrow money and those who have borrowed money from the whole family for two generations. The rest are ordinary people such as migrant workers. Except parents and other family members, they have the ability to send their children to school. 10 They may not be able to afford it for 20 years, and they will not live in big cities for a long time. They will work for a few years, and then choose them to afford distant cities.

6. "The government's inaction has contributed to the rise of housing prices", "the demand for corruption has raised housing prices", "Real estate has become the main source of local finance income", "the increase of inflation expectations has pushed up housing prices" and "the soaring land prices have pushed up housing prices". These six items are obviously collective insults and denunciations by developers to the government. Therefore, the above viewpoints are developers' naked greed, enthusiasm for capital, crazy attacks on the government to change their thinking and prevent them from continuing to make big money and never repent. They forget that the government has given them the opportunity and environment to get rich. They think it is impossible to make small money, but they must make big money. This is their nature, and their greed is also the reason for the high inventory. Some even shouted to blow up the inventory. In essence, capitalism is consistent. In order to make them less profitable and increase sales, the government tried to persuade them to lower their house prices and prevent the collapse, but they were ungrateful and could not see the risk of losing all their money in the collapse of house prices, which was a short-sighted behavior of the free capital collective.

7. "Developers can't reduce prices, but house prices will only go up and not down" and "people with houses support the rise of house prices" are groups that want to maintain high house prices: 1, developers, needless to say; 2. People who invested in buying multiple suites in 2005-2015. The former is a big investor and the latter is a small investor. They can push up housing prices and sell a large number of surplus houses in their hands for profit. This is easy to understand and doesn't need too much explanation. However, 20 15 has shown that although developers are shouting that developers will not reduce prices, the actual offers offered by major sales centers are endless, just to cash out as soon as possible. The rest are unlucky, and the developers are happy to know that they have sold it early, and then they are heartbroken. It should be noted that the above developers and small investors only account for less than 1% of the total population. Ordinary people with houses have their own 1 set, and their parents and children have two sets. Basically, there are no extra houses to enter the market, so high housing prices are meaningless to them, just empty figures. Their children may also face the problem of buying houses in different places, so the general rise in house prices is not necessarily a good thing for these people, and they don't want house prices to rise unless they are in first-tier cities, but then again, the children in first-tier cities are basically back to the front line. The impact of high housing prices on ordinary people is the rising prices of other necessities, which is the real feeling of ordinary people who have houses in cities, because migrant workers must raise labor costs if they want to gain a foothold in cities.

8. The statement that "economic development cannot be separated from real estate" is not fully established. Economic development is inseparable from all walks of life. Real estate is just one of 360 lines. If a country's economic development mainly depends on real estate, then its growth is false. To put it simply, if the national housing price of the most backward country rises by 6,543.8 billion times and all its citizens change houses many times in one year, then this country must have the world's first GDP and per capita GDP. The real development of a country depends on whether its industry, agriculture, biomedicine and other scientific and technological fields have sustained and steady progress, whether its distribution is fair, whether its society is just, and whether its people live and work in peace and contentment!

9. Market control of developers. "The media supports the rise in housing prices" and "The media makes a lot of publicity to stir up a pool of clear water". These two are about the media. First of all, most of the media about the housing market have been infiltrated by the interests of developers. Developers use super-high housing prices to make profits, and then give some wisdom to these bad media, so that these people can also get some oil and water to cheer them up. You can see that many authors who shout for developers are afraid to use their own names, mostly xxx collectives and xxx departments, because they know that doing bad things is losing money. In this high-priced society, in order to survive, they have to open their mouths to catch developers. As for the second article, it is because the national policy proposed on 20 16, 1 to encourage developers to reduce prices and go to stock. Some major media and newspapers in the central government began to talk about the downward adjustment of house prices, and the price of 1 line declined steadily. This is actually a subtle expression of the government to developers, but even though the government has helped developers so much, developers who have been hacked by money still swear at the government's main media.