The weather in Huanghua, Hebei Province tomorrow

65438+On February 29th, 2020, the strongest cold wave hit the northern region this winter. Qinhuangdao port, Hebei province, with a cold wind. Even under the sun, the highest temperature during the day is only MINUS three degrees, and the rivers near the expressway have frozen.

In the empty factory area, in addition to the overhead coal railway line, mountains of coal piles can be seen everywhere. But compared with previous years, these coal piles have been reduced.

In the afternoon, near Qinhuangdao Port, a staff member of Qinhuangdao Port introduced to the interface news that due to the cold weather and accelerated economic recovery, the demand for coal for downstream terminals rebounded sharply, and more ships were sent to the northern ports to grab coal.

"Grab coal" has become the normal state of many coal merchants recently.

"What I earned this year is OK, that is, coal resources are too tight and out of stock." Jiang Zhiming has been engaged in coal trade for more than ten years and is currently engaged in management work in a coal production enterprise.

Since 20201mid-October 165438, the demand for coal has continued to rise, and the price of coal has continued to climb.

"This month's coal price is a once-in-a-decade market." Jiang Zhiming told Interface News, "I was brave enough to catch up. Some people didn't expect to earn so much."

Manager Sha ships in Huanghua Port and Qinhuangdao Wharf all the year round. On June 5438+ 10, his company grabbed the coal ahead of time at the price of one ton of 560 yuan. Two weeks ago, I sold 30,000 tons of coal at the price of one ton of 760 yuan, and earned 6 million yuan, excluding agency fees.

"This is not a lot of money. Some big traders have made a fortune. " He said that coal prices have fluctuated in recent years, and it is not profitable to do coal trade.

A coal analyst who asked not to be named told Interface News that inland power plants are not short of coal, and traders who make more money supply more coastal power plants.

According to the interface news, the spot price of 5500K thermal coal from Beigang Coal has reached 850 yuan/ton on February 3 1 day, and the spot transaction price is about 823 yuan/ton. Many people in the industry believe that the upward trend of coal prices may continue to 202 1 1 year.

Jiang Zhiming predicted that the price of thermal coal may reach 1000 yuan/ton. This will be close to the high coal price of 12 years.

In 2008, the spot price of thermal coal soared to 1060 yuan/ton. Starting from 20 12, the ten-year golden period of the coal industry ended, and the coal price fell accordingly. After several ups and downs, I never got to the mark of 1000 yuan.

On June 5438+February 65438+February 6, 2020, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that the demand for coal in the power, steel and building materials industries was strong, the temperature was low, and the coal used for heating increased. This winter, the demand for coal has increased more obviously than in previous years.

From June 5438 to February, the national power generation and consumption increased by about 1 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. Affected by the cold wave, the highest daily electricity load in the country exceeded the peak summer, and the electricity consumption of 20 provincial power grids increased by double digits.

In addition to the rapid economic recovery and the surge in coal demand, the limited supply in major coal producing areas is also the main reason for the high coal price this year.

Inner Mongolia, as the largest coal-producing province, launched a 20-year investigation on coal-related corruption this year, which affected the local coal supply. Many coal mine accidents occurred in the second half of the year, which led to the upgrading of environmental protection and safety inspection, and also aggravated the shortage of coal supply and demand.

At present, pit coal is a very sought-after resource. In some major producing areas, there has been a rare phenomenon of "waiting in line for coal" in recent years, and the price of coal is increasing day by day.

65438. 2. 30 According to the official news of Yulin Coal Trading Center, the sales of coal mines in Yulin area are generally good, and the coal mines are sold as soon as they are produced, and there is no inventory. Surface coal and seed coal were successfully shipped.

According to the data of Yulin Coal Trading Center, 35 coal mines in Yulin have raised their prices by 5-40 yuan/ton since 65438 on February 23rd.

"Coal prices are too high and risky."

In the view of another coal trader surnamed Li, there are not many real coal transactions on the market at present. Power plants require long-term associations to buy coal on demand and will not hoard goods as before.

"High daily consumption and low inventory" has become a common phenomenon in downstream power plants. The inventory available days of a single power plant have even dropped to single digits.

On February 28th, 65438, the Development and Reform Commission of Anyang City, Henan Province issued the Safety Analysis Report of Coal and Electricity in Anyang City, saying that the coal stocks of two thermal power plants in Anyang City were all below the warning level.

Among them, Datang Anyang Power Plant has an available high-quality coal inventory of about 40,000 tons, with a daily consumption of 8,000 tons, and the available inventory is less than 5 days; The available high-quality coal inventory of Datang Linzhou Power Plant is about 60,000 tons/day, and the available inventory is 10 day, both of which are seriously below the minimum inventory warning line.

Anyang Development and Reform Commission said that the main reason for the coal emergency is the shortage of coal sources and the difficulty in transportation.

Anyang mainly purchases Shanxi coal. Due to the suspension of production in some coal mines, the coal source in Shanxi is tight, and the coal price has risen from 400 yuan to 600 yuan per ton. Even if it accepts high prices, it is still difficult to buy.

Datang Anyang Power Plant supplies 3,000 tons of coal every day, with a gap of nearly 5,000 tons. Datang Linzhou Power Plant has a daily output of 3,000 tons, with a gap of 3,000 tons. It is expected that the inventory of these two power plants will continue to decline in the later period, and the risk of hot shutdown is great.

On February 28, 65438, there was a large-scale cooling in the whole country, and the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the highest-level orange cold wave warning. The cooling range covers most areas from Central China to East China, and the difficulty of coal transportation will be further increased.

In coal mining areas, "one coal is hard to find", the pressure of railway transportation is not small, the coal ports are also very lively, more and more ships are sailing northward, and the freight rate is constantly hitting new highs.

According to the information of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, as of 12 and 15, the maritime coal freight index was reported at 1346.54, and the freight rates of all routes reached a new high in recent three years. The total number of anchorage ships in Qinhuangdao, Tangshan and Cangzhou ports is 170, and the demand for power plant procurement is high.

Driven by insufficient upstream supply and strong demand, the port coal inventory has declined rapidly.

Interface news learned that since mid-August 2020, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port has been at a low level of 5 million tons for four consecutive months, and even dropped to 4.9 million tons.

A senior coal analyst told Interface News that the inventory of Qinhuangdao in previous years was generally 5.5-6 million tons.

I've never been so depressed

According to his observation for many years, there are more than 30 or even 40 anchored ships in Qinhuangdao, and the coal storage in the port hovers at a low level of about 5 million for half a month. Coal prices will definitely rise, which will drive the coal prices in the surrounding ports.

A recent day-and-night coal output table of Qinhuangdao Port obtained by Interface News shows that at present, Qinhuangdao coal is loaded with 524,000 tons per day, the railway reaches 64.39 million tons per day, and the port unloads 6,453 vehicles.

"The design capacity of Qin Port is 6.5438+93 million tons, with an average daily shipment of 528,000 tons. At present, the shipment volume is close to the design capacity. " Mr. Zhou, the business manager of a trading company in Qin Gang, told Interface News.

In Huanghua Port, another coal transportation port, the current coal inventory is only 6.5438+0.5 million tons, and the average daily shipment volume has reached a record high.

Interface news learned from Shenhua Huanghua Port Company, a national energy group, that in May 438+February, Huanghua Port transported 600,000 tons of coal every day.

In 2020, the annual coal throughput of Huanghua Port will reach about 204 million tons, and Qinhuangdao will reach about 65.438+76 million tons. Huanghua Port surpassed Qinhuangdao and became the largest coal transportation port in China.

Qinhuangdao Port is the main hub port of China's "transporting coal from the north to the south", which is divided into two ports: the east and the west. Donggang District is mainly engaged in energy transportation, including coal terminal and crude oil pipeline transportation terminal. Xigang District is mainly engaged in the loading and unloading of groceries and containers.

The above-mentioned analysts, who did not want to be named, believe that the reason why Qinhuangdao Port was overtaken by Huanghua Port is that the total dispatching capacity is insufficient. Two accidents occurred on the Daqin line, and the coal transportation capacity dropped to 4.8 million tons. After the Daqin line was overhauled, some coal freight was diverted to other ports. After the overhaul, the transportation capacity did not recover.

Another institutional analyst told the interface news that at present, many power plants have their own terminals in Caofeidian, and the Meng-Ji line diverted the flow of Daqin line, and Caofeidian port diverted the flow of Qinhuangdao port.

Another staff member of Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Center, who did not want to be named, told the interface news that the customer supply structure of Qinhuangdao Port and Huanghua Port is different. Qinhuangdao Port is a public wharf with many accounts, which leads to the transportation efficiency of its storage space is not as high as that of the latter.

The source said that except the annual coal throughput of Yitai Group is 6.5438+million tons, Huanghua Port belongs to the owner's wharf.

Qinhuangdao coal is basically composed of four coal enterprises, and 70% of the coal comes from Shanxi. Among them, Tongmei Group accounts for the bulk, with an annual displacement of 50 million tons, China Coal Group is about 40 million tons, and National Energy Group and Yitai Group are about 6.5438+million-6.5438+0.5 million tons respectively.

The increase in coal prices is also related to the continuous tightening of coal import policies.

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that during the period of1-1,the coal import volume was 265 million tons, down 10.8% year-on-year.

Among them, 10 imported coal137.26 million tons, down 46.56% year-on-year; 1October, 165438+ imported coal11670,000 tons, down 43.8% year-on-year.

According to Platts' statistics, from June 5438 to August this year, China imported 38.6 million tons of Australian thermal coal and 3 1 0.6 million tons of metallurgical coal, totaling 70.2 million tons, with an average monthly import of nearly110,000 tons.

Australian coal is mainly unloaded at southern ports such as Guangdong and Fujian. At present, many power plants in South China only use 5500 calories of coal. After Australia's coal import was restricted, the supply of 5,500 kcal coal in the market was in short supply, and it had to rely on coal substitutes from Shenhua Group and Tongmei Group, resulting in a structural shortage.

A trader engaged in coal import in the Middle East told Interface News that after Australia's coal import restrictions, the imports of Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Colombia all increased, which made up for the shortage of imported coal to some extent.

China Coal Industry Association predicts that the gradual recovery of global economy in 20021year will drive the further growth of coal demand, and there may be a tight balance between coal supply and demand.

On February 28th, 65438, the main person in charge of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission publicly stated that it would make every effort to increase production and supply, and guide Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major coal producing areas and key coal enterprises to accelerate the release of production capacity on the premise of ensuring safety. In addition, according to the supply and demand situation, coal imports should be appropriately increased.

Huang Xuenong, director of the Electric Power Department of the National Energy Administration, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency a few days ago that the coal supply will be safe and stable, and the coal storage level in key areas and power plants will be improved to ensure that there is no shortage of coal and production will not be stopped.

According to the data 165438 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 27th, the profits of the coal industry are accelerating to repair. 1 1%' s monthly profit increased year-on-year, and the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year.

As of February 28th, 65438, the national power plant coal inventory has reached 65438+32 million tons, and the available days are 17 days, which is at a high level. Among them, Hunan coal inventory is 3.369 million tons, which can be used for 25 days; Jiangxi electric coal stock is 2.487 million tons, which can be used for 16 days.

(Jiang Zhiming is a pseudonym in the text)