What is earthquake forecast?

Earthquakes, like wind and rain, are natural phenomena. There are precursors before they come. Especially strong earthquakes will always cause various physical and environmental hazards underground and on the ground during the gestation process. Chemical changes provide information to people. Such as changes in groundwater, sudden rise and fall or change of taste, muddyness, sound, and bubbling. Meteorological changes, such as sudden cold and heat, severe droughts and floods, changes in electromagnetic fields, abnormal reactions of animals and plants before earthquakes, etc. Comprehensive research based on these reactions, coupled with professional departments' processing and analysis of instrument observation data from aspects such as earthquake mechanisms, earthquake geology, geophysics, geochemistry, biological changes, celestial influences, and meteorological anomalies, can determine the time of the earthquake. , location and magnitude. For example, the successful prediction of the 7.3-magnitude earthquake in Haicheng, Liaoning in 1975 is an example. However, due to the complexity of the causes of earthquakes and the suddenness of earthquakes, as well as the current limited scientific level of people, earthquake prediction is still a worldwide problem until now. There is no reliable way and means in the world that can accurately predict all earthquakes. Destructive earthquakes. For this reason, seismologists and experts from various countries are working hard to explore.

Due to the country’s attention and its clear mission, my country’s earthquake prediction has become one of the world’s advanced ones after a generation of efforts. During the fourth active seismic period, it successfully made short-term forecasts for several major earthquakes such as Haicheng. Therefore, it was reviewed by UNESCO as the only country that has made successful short-term forecasts for earthquakes. history. However, worldwide, earthquake prediction is still in the exploratory stage, and the laws of earthquake development have not yet been fully grasped. Our predictions are mainly based on empirical predictions based on observation data and earthquake cases accumulated over many years. Therefore, it inevitably has great limitations. To this end, Article 16 of the Law of the People's Republic of China on National Earthquake Defense and Disaster Mitigation stipulates: The state implements a unified release system for earthquake forecasts. Short-term earthquake forecasts and imminent earthquake forecasts are issued by the people's governments of provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government in accordance with the procedures prescribed by the State Council. Opinions of any unit or professional engaged in earthquake work on short-term earthquake prediction or imminent earthquake prediction shall be reported to the earthquake administrative department of the State Council or the department or agency responsible for managing earthquake work of the local people's government at or above the county level for handling in accordance with the provisions of the preceding paragraph, and shall not be handled without authorization spread to society. In our country, the right to issue earthquake forecasts lies with the government. Any first-level administrative unit, research unit, observation station, scientist or any individual belonging to the earthquake system has no right to release information about earthquake forecasts.