2.27 yuan! The price of pigs has risen by 9.4%. Three new news, will the price of pigs go up and down? 10 pig price!

Introduction 10 enters the middle of the month. In the domestic pig market, this round of pig price increase has not stopped, and the increase of pig price in the domestic market has dropped slightly. However, the focus of the market is still being raised, the pig price has reached a new high, and the phased increase has further expanded! It is understood that at present, the national pig price has risen to 26.33 yuan/kg, and the pig price has shown the performance of "10/2 continuous rise". The staged pig price rebounded by 2.27 yuan/kg, and the pig price rose by 9.4%. The domestic pig price successfully entered the "13 yuan era". However, with the arrival of three new news in the market, will the price of pigs go up and down? The specific analysis is coming!

During the National Day holiday, the domestic pig market showed a strong performance against the trend. On the one hand, due to the lack of enthusiasm of retail pig farms and the prominent phenomenon of secondary fattening, domestic slaughterhouses are facing greater pressure to collect pigs; On the other hand, consumer support has become stronger, and downstream demand has gradually improved due to the festive atmosphere! Therefore, due to the blind suppression of the market and the holiday effect of the consumer market, some secondary fattening phenomena have increased, and the domestic pig market has risen beyond expectations!

Now, after the National Day holiday, the increase in domestic pig prices has gradually weakened. So, should pig prices "rise and fall"? There are three new news in the market, the specific analysis is as follows:

According to official data, at the end of August, there were 43.24 million domestic sows, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year. The abnormal number of fertile sows reached 5.5%! The continuous increase in the number of sows has obviously suppressed the long-term pig price. Therefore, at this stage, the willingness of domestic piglets to make up the file is strong, and the price fluctuation of piglets and binary sows is weak!

From June last year to April this year, the number of fertile sows was in a decreasing cycle, so the slaughter of pigs in the fourth quarter was still in a tense stage. However, the scale of pig slaughter in the fourth quarter showed a gradual easing trend compared with the second and third quarters. In particular, secondary fattening and reluctance to sell in retail pig farms will also lead to backward slaughter of suitable pig sources and relatively loose supply of pigs. However, due to the cold weather and the gradual recovery of consumption, there is still demand for bacon at the end of the year.

According to the latest data, in June, 65438+ 10/0, domestic pig prices surged and fell. The price of pigs in the north and south fluctuated strongly, and the price of pigs barely maintained a continuous increase. However, the bearish and stable mood of the market has increased! Judging from the regional quotations, the quotations of slaughter enterprises in the Northeast market are generally sideways at 13 yuan/kg, and the prices in Heilongjiang are hovering at 12.7 ~ 13 yuan/kg. The price of pigs in most parts of North China has risen to "13 yuan era", and the average price is generally in the range of 13 ~ 65438+. In the traditional high-priced areas in the south, at present, in Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong and Guangxi, the quotations of slaughter enterprises generally rose to 13.5 yuan/kg, and the local prices in some markets in Guangdong rose to 14 yuan/kg!

The price of live pigs has dropped, and this round of pig prices has increased by 9.4%. But there are three new news in the market, pig prices are at risk of falling!

On the one hand, the government announced that it will release the fifth batch of pork reserves in the near future. At the same time, the official also said that the domestic pig production is generally loose, in which the number of sows, newborn piglets and pigs is increasing month by month, and the pig price does not have the basis for a big increase, which will further crack down on the phenomenon of hot money speculation and "cool down" the excessively rising pig price!

On the other hand, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weakened. With the increase of pig price, the price of standard pigs generally rose to 13~ 14 yuan/kg, while the price of fat pigs was higher, the risk of secondary fattening in the market increased sharply, the enthusiasm of short-term replenishment weakened, the support of secondary fattening in the market declined, and the pressure of pig procurement in slaughter enterprises weakened! However, the post-holiday slaughter plans of large pig enterprises have gradually increased, the performance of tight supply of pigs has gradually improved, the sentiment of slaughter enterprises has gradually become strong, and the market bearish sentiment has gradually warmed up!

Third, the consumer market resistance is heating up! After the holiday, the demand for pork fell, and the increase in pork prices also limited residents' purchasing enthusiasm. According to official sources, the wholesale price of pork in the domestic agricultural products wholesale market rose by 2.5% before and after the holiday, and the price of live pigs rebounded by over 9%. Therefore, the poor follow-up of consumption is more prominent, and the market demand has further declined after the holiday! With the reduction of orders from slaughter enterprises, it is more difficult for white pigs to get goods, and the mood of price reduction will gradually become stronger!

Therefore, based on the three new signals of the above market, it is predicted that the pig price will soon "turn from rising to falling". However, at present, the performance of retail pig farms is still weak, retail bullish sentiment still exists, and it is more difficult for pig prices to go down. It is expected that the decline in pig prices is mainly due to weak shocks! However, there is also the risk of trampling on the market. After all, the official price stabilization measures continue, the premium performance of large pig enterprises has cooled down, and the consumer market lacks effective support in the short term. Therefore, if the mood of retail pig farms increases sharply, there is no lack of risk of a sharp drop in pig prices!

2.27 yuan! The price of pigs has risen by 9.4%. Three new news, will the price of pigs go up and down? 10 pig price! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!