Why is there still no way to accurately predict 100% rainfall?

Due to the earth's rotation and Coriolis effect, the wind near the equator usually blows from east to west, just like blowing a cup of tea. This wind pushes the surrounding water, and eventually the sea level in Indonesia is half a meter higher than that in Peru. As for surface water, as the sun warms, they flow westward, causing deeper cold water to come up from the east instead of warm water, which means one end is hot. Faced with all kinds of ridicule and doubts, the staff of the Municipal Meteorological Observatory said with a helpless smile. "In fact, not only the domestic weather forecast is easily questioned by citizens and foreign friends.

You can't blame the meteorological station for the inaccurate weather forecast. The weather system is a very complicated system, and any slight change will have a great impact on the weather. You've heard of the butterfly effect. Something like this. "The staff of the Municipal Meteorological Bureau also introduced that since the weather forecast is to predict the future, it is not 100% accurate. China's meteorological department has been trying to improve the accuracy of the forecast, but it is really impossible to make a false report. Every report must be accurate. The other end is cold. If the east-west wind is unusually strong, warm water will flow farther west and the eastern Pacific will become colder. This situation is called La Nina. But if the west wind weakens, the upwelling of cold water will decrease, and this large amount of warm water will eventually appear near the coast of South America, which is El Ni? o.

Weather is mainly caused by weather system, which is usually an atmospheric movement system, such as high pressure, low pressure, high pressure ridge and low pressure trough, which guides the change and distribution of weather. The observation results of meteorological satellites show that. Large and small weather systems interweave, interact and evolve with the movement of the atmosphere, which cannot be described in a completely scientific and accurate way, but it is not completely unknown. This is the essence of chaotic motion. Disturbances in the atmosphere are always limited to a certain equilibrium range. The combination of oscillation and nonlinearity makes it impossible to capture the weather process at a fixed point at present. When recognizable weather systems (such as high-altitude trough, shear line, southwest vortex, typhoon, etc. ) into the unstable equilibrium region of the atmosphere, the latent heat energy of the unstable environment will be released, forming convective precipitation. Under the influence of these systems, precipitation presents a certain degree of organization. On the other hand, the development of convection itself is random, so it is impossible to predict precipitation at a fixed time and place, showing unpredictability.