Frequent extreme weather in many places in China will lead to an increase in food and vegetable prices?

Since the summer of this year, most parts of China have been in a state of continuous high temperature.

Temperatures in many places have broken historical records, such as Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shandong and Jiangsu, which have reached the highest values in the same period in history. Even if it rains in some areas, the temperature has not dropped.

According to the news released by the National Climate Center, as of August 15, this round of hot weather has lasted for more than 60 days.

According to the monitoring and evaluation, the comprehensive intensity of regional high temperature events has reached the highest since June 196 1 with complete meteorological observation records.

After beginning of autumn in August, some areas in the north finally got a hint of autumn in the morning and evening, but the southwest and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are still "barbecue mode". Recently, the Central Meteorological Observatory has repeatedly issued high-temperature red warnings.

The continuous high temperature and drought make people worry about two things:

First, at present, it is a critical period for crop growth, such as corn, soybean and rice, and it is a critical period for yield formation. So will the continuous high temperature have an impact on crop growth and yield?

Second, what impact will high temperature and dry weather have on vegetables, and will it lead to a sharp increase in food prices and vegetable prices?

First of all, in terms of food, according to the emergency management department, as of August 16, about 783,000 people in six provinces in the Yangtze River Basin, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui, needed life assistance due to drought, and the affected area of crops reached17.64 million mu. According to the previous data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the planting area of autumn grain this year exceeded1300 million.

At present, rice in South China has entered a critical growth period, which is sensitive to temperature and moisture, while high temperature and drought may affect the later seed setting rate and pose a threat to some autumn grain yields.

And people collect more corn.

Due to the continuous high temperature and drought in some parts of the south, corn production shows signs of reduction, but the overall proportion of spring corn is not large, and the main yield of corn depends on the northeast.

The corn production in Northeast China accounts for more than 40% of the national corn production. Unlike the high temperature and drought in the south, the northeast is facing wet waterlogging.

Since June, there have been heavy rains in Northeast China, and the waterlogging in low-lying areas in parts of Liaoning and Jilin is more serious, which may lead to the delay of corn production reduction and listing.

Looking at vegetables again, vegetable cultivation in China is mainly in two major regions, one is the south-central region represented by Henan, Hubei and Hunan, and the other is the eastern region represented by Shandong.

In terms of output, Shandong is a big vegetable province in China, and the vegetable output has always ranked first in the country, accounting for about12% of the total vegetable output in the country; Followed by Henan, the vegetable output accounts for about 10% of the total vegetable output in China.

However, it can be seen that most vegetable cultivation in China is located in the southern region, so the high temperature and dry weather has also had a certain impact on vegetable growth.

Since the beginning of summer, the temperature in many places in the south has continued to rise, and Wuhan and other areas have been greatly affected.

On the one hand, it affects the growth of leafy vegetables, because the high temperature slows down the growth of vegetables; On the other hand, it affects transportation and increases the difficulty of transportation under high temperature operation, so the price of vegetables has also increased.

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, during the week from August 12 to August 18, the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in 286 wholesale markets nationwide was 3.96 yuan/kg, slightly higher than last month or the same period last year.

Then, as the high temperature continues, will it lead to a sharp increase in food prices and vegetable prices?

Recently, Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that overall, the proportion of the affected area is still relatively small, which has limited impact on the overall harvest of autumn grain and vegetables.

On the one hand, rice is the largest food ration in China, with high output and high inventory. Even if there is a reduction in production in some areas, it will have little impact on the overall market.

In the future, the focus of corn purchasing and storage is that after the new corn is delayed, it may have some impact on market sentiment and lead to some fluctuations.

On the other hand, China has obvious seasonal demand for vegetables. The peak demand season of "transporting vegetables from south to north" is in winter and spring every year, and there is still a period of time before now, and the growth cycle of vegetables is also relatively short. As the temperature drops, the growth rate of vegetables will recover, and this rhythm will be adjusted soon.

In addition, since August, the state has deployed disaster-stricken areas for many times, distributed relief funds for agricultural production, and sent several working groups and detachments to key provinces of autumn grain and key areas affected by high temperature and drought to guide the implementation of key measures to fight disasters and ensure a bumper harvest, so as to alleviate the adverse effects of extreme weather on agricultural production.

After more than two years of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market supply and demand have basically returned to balance, and China has more experience in "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", so food prices and vegetable prices may fluctuate slightly in stages, but the probability of a big increase is very small.