weather forecast

Original production, no reprinting, offenders will be prosecuted.

As the saying goes, agriculture is an industry that depends on the weather, even today when technology is so developed, it is no exception.

Take the price of food, which everyone is most concerned about. On the one hand, food price fluctuation is affected by market supply and demand, on the other hand, it is also directly affected by the weather.

Remember last year? Last year, wheat was in a downturn, but it suffered from heavy rainfall at harvest, which seriously differentiated the quality of wheat and directly changed the wheat market.

Coupled with the rising demand for wheat feed, the price of wheat has soared.

At present, corn in the northern hemisphere has entered an important growth stage, but the change of weather makes corn face all-round pressure.

1, continuous rainfall in the northeast, and floods occurred in many places in Liaoning.

Some people say that there is a lot of rain in the northeast this year, but let's look back at last year. In June and July last year, the northeast also suffered from heavy rain.

According to reports, at the end of June last year, the 13 hydrological station in Heilongjiang Province exceeded the warning water level, and the flood magnitude of Sandaoka Station exceeded 75 years.

Some villages such as Heihe River were flooded, residents were forced to evacuate and farmland was flooded.

This year, the situation is similar. Since June, large-scale rainfall has continuously swept through farmland in Northeast China. According to recent reports, there are heavy rains in central, western and southeastern Liaoning, with the maximum rainfall reaching 225.6 mm.

Affected by this, farmland waterlogging is serious in many places, and crop yield is seriously affected, while the main crops in Northeast China are corn and soybeans.

Continuous rainy weather leads to insufficient light and increased accumulated temperature of corn, and water accumulation in farmland will have an impact on corn growth.

At present, most corn growth has entered the stage of filling and fruiting, which is the time to grow grains. At this time, if it is soaked in rain for a long time, it is easy to cause corn yield reduction.

It is understood that Liaoning is the most seriously affected, especially in Jinzhou and Tieling. According to local farmers, in this case, it is inevitable to postpone the listing of corn and reduce production.

As for how much to reduce production, it depends on the subsequent weather changes.

Therefore, this has also become an important turning point in the corn market this year, that is, if corn production is reduced or its quality is damaged, it is likely to drive the corn market to stop falling and rebound. After all, the demand for corn has been huge. Under the premise of "expanding beans" this year, the corn planting area has declined.

Therefore, although it is getting closer and closer to the market, the change of corn yield and quality has become one of the focuses of market acquisition.

Second, the US corn welcomes large-scale drought

History is always strikingly similar. When Heilongjiang was hit by heavy rain last year, the United States was suffering from high temperature and dry weather.

This year, the situation is very similar.

It is reported that the western part of the United States suffered a record drought, and the drought is still expanding and spreading. For example, the water level of Lake Meade in Nevada, USA dropped, exposing the shore of the lake, and many cities released record temperatures.

Meteorologists point out that the high temperature in the United States will continue.

The analysis also said that if the high temperature continues, the corn yield this year will be affected, and nearly 30% of the corn is currently in a state of drought.

According to expert analysis, this round of dry weather may still be caused by La Nina phenomenon.

La Nina will force the tropical system of North America to move northward, which will reduce the probability of precipitation in the midwest of the United States, and at the same time form a subtropical high disorder, which will keep the temperature rising and further reduce the rainfall.

Therefore, the weather has become an important uncertain factor in the international corn trend.

Although there is weather hype every year, this year seems particularly obvious.

Third, where will corn go?

Then, finally, let's go back to the trend of corn. What will happen to corn in the second half of the year?

On the one hand, although international food prices have been falling under the expectation of economic peak, we can also see that the downward trend has narrowed obviously and even started to rebound.

This also confirms what we said before that the decline of international food prices cannot be achieved overnight. In addition to the weather, geopolitical conflicts, high energy prices and many other factors are intertwined, which also determines that the trend of food prices cannot be unilateral.

On the other hand, domestic corn changes mainly depend on domestic market supply and demand, while international corn changes have relatively limited impact on the domestic market.

However, a large part of domestic corn supply and demand is concentrated in the harvest of northeast corn in September. From the current point of view, there is some support for the follow-up corn, but how good it is depends on the next weather situation in the northeast.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.