Why has the North China Plain become the hottest area?

A scientific research led by MIT shows that one of the most densely populated areas on earth, the North China Plain in China, may be hit by the deadliest heat wave before the end of this century.

This study shows that unless carbon dioxide emissions are effectively curbed, the North China Plain will reach the fatal wet bulb temperature threshold of 35 degrees between 2070 and 2 100, and outdoor workers may die within hours of extreme heat waves.

In fact, the results of the model show that even if China significantly reduces carbon emissions, the North China Plain will exceed the 35-degree wet bulb temperature threshold several times in the second half of this century.

In recent 50 years, the frequency and intensity of heat waves in China have obviously increased. From 195 1 to 2006, the average surface temperature in China increased by about 1.35℃, with an average of 0.27℃/ 10 years, which was about 0. 13℃/ 10 higher than the global temperature at that time. The last time China was hit by a severe heat wave was in the summer of 20 13, and a severe heat wave event occurred in the eastern region. Among them, Xujiahui in Shanghai once reached 40.8℃, the highest temperature since the local 14 1 had meteorological records.

In any corner of the earth, the atmospheric wet bulb temperature rarely exceeds 3 1℃ in history. However, a previous study by MIT showed that the heat wave in the second half of this century will raise the wet bulb temperature to about 365,438+0℃-34℃. The National Weather Service listed the wet bulb temperature higher than 3 1℃ as "extremely dangerous", warning people that "if preventive measures are not taken immediately, they may get seriously ill or even die".

In addition to China, the Ganges and Indus basins in India and most parts of South Asia will also experience extreme climate with wet bulb temperature exceeding 35℃ in the second half of this century. In recent decades, the frequency of deadly heat waves in South Asia has increased significantly. In 20 15, the fifth deadliest heat wave on record hit most parts of India and Pakistan, killing about 3,500 people. But the deadly heat wave that China will face is still more serious than other regions.

The research of Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that in the relatively dry but highly fertile North China Plain, large-scale irrigation intensifies the risk of fatal heat waves.

The study believes that in order to avoid the fatal impact of future heat waves, it may be necessary to "formulate effective public health adaptation measures" while striving to reduce emissions.

It's a hot summer. In recent days, the continuous high temperature in the North China Plain has made people here very uncomfortable. The phenomenon of high temperature and little rain has also caused a large area of drought in the North China Plain, and the drought in some areas has been very serious.

At this time last year (2065438+July 2008), an American scientist published a report in the supplement of Nature magazine, saying that by the end of this century, the North China Plain is likely to become the hottest area on earth. According to a scientific research led by MIT, the North China Plain in China is one of the most densely populated areas on the earth, and a large number of human activities also mean that there is a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions here. Moreover, because the North China Plain is surrounded by mountains on three sides, with Mount Tai and carbon dioxide in the middle, the smog and water vapor generated here are not easy to be discharged at a faster speed (the report emphasizes the role of water vapor generated by farmland irrigation in temperature rise). So summer is coming, where the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide is stronger, and the smog in the air can also absorb sunlight to heat the air, and the evaporation of water vapor caused by farmland irrigation and industrial water here will further increase the air temperature here. Therefore, with the intensification of global warming, the warming of the North China Plain will be more obvious. Since 1970, the phenomenon of high temperature in North China Plain has become more and more frequent. After 2070,

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology came to this conclusion by examining a climate model. Although the article is well-founded, some meteorologists have questioned it. Researchers from China Institute of Atmospheric Physics believe that China is influenced by the East Asian monsoon climate, with obvious seasonal changes, and the summer high temperature in North China Plain is a climate phenomenon that occurs every year. Although the topography of North China Plain is easy to cause carbon dioxide, smog and water vapor to stay, it is not difficult to discharge it. As long as there is wind, it can blow to the ocean quickly. Global warming is a global phenomenon. As the temperature in North China Plain rises in summer, the temperature in other places will also rise.

For example, the Indus and Ganges plains in South Asia are less prone to emit carbon dioxide, smoke and water vapor. If the North China Plain in China is too hot to live in, then the Indus and Ganges plains may be uninhabited for a long time.

In May and June this year, extreme high temperature weather occurred in South Asia, and the temperature in many places exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, often for several days. Moreover, the temperature difference between day and night is extremely small, and the heat wave has also claimed some lives in South Asia. However, the people there did not delay their production and life, and the weather conditions did not cause the people there to survive. Compared with the high temperature in South Asia, the temperature in North China Plain is not very high, and even now, it is not the highest temperature area in the world.

This year is considered by meteorologists to be an El Nino year, and the temperature in most parts of the northern hemisphere is higher than normal. Except for South Asia, the temperatures in the Sahara Desert, West Asia, Europe and even the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are higher than in previous years. Lhasa, the capital of Xizang Autonomous Region, which has never really entered summer, entered summer as scheduled this year. Many meteorologists believe that this abnormal temperature phenomenon is related to global warming.

Global warming is a phenomenon that the average temperature of the whole earth rises, and its fundamental reason is considered to be caused by human activities. The increase of carbon dioxide that can be discharged into the atmosphere in production and life has caused the greenhouse effect, which will lead to the rapid rise of the average temperature of the earth, which is reflected in the regional distribution of the earth's surface, that is, the temperature in all regions is basically rising. In this way, the temperature in the tropical and subtropical regions of the earth will be even higher, so the places that are no longer livable will start from these places.

The latitude of North China Plain is on the high side, and the annual hot time is relatively short, generally less than four months, and the climate is quite pleasant at other times. Comparatively speaking, the hot weather in densely populated areas of South Asia lasts much longer and the temperature is higher. If even the North China Plain is no longer livable, then many parts of the world, such as South Asia, may be uninhabitable, which is of course unrealistic.

However, another change of global warming is that it can make the cold temperate zone with higher latitude more livable and even turn the cold temperate zone into a cold temperate zone. Therefore, although global warming is a non-benign climate change, it also has some benefits.

A new study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology pointed out that due to climate change and the development of irrigated agriculture, the heat wave in North China Plain of China may make this area uninhabitable after 265,438+000 years.

According to the research of MIT team in the United States, if the current greenhouse gas emission rate is followed, extreme heat waves are likely to occur in agricultural areas. From 2070 to 2 100, this heat wave will hit the North China Plain in an all-round way, making it one of the most threatened areas in the world.

At present, about 400 million people live in this area, but the extreme heat wave may not only threaten life, but also kill the economic output of this area.

From China to West Africa and South Asia, this unprecedented heat wave is fierce, and the future will be far more serious than what we are experiencing at present.