The new wheat market is booming. Why did it suddenly fall continuously? What signal was released?

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With the continuous listing of new wheat, the market is getting hotter and hotter.

Generally speaking, it is an inevitable trend for new wheat to go public and old wheat to fall back, and they are constantly looking for a balance point.

In fact, the market is also following this expectation.

Since Hubei wheat took the lead in listing, the price of new wheat has been rising, while the price of old wheat has been falling.

However, recently, when the new wheat market was hot, there suddenly appeared the phenomenon of "losing streak".

The new wheat has just been listed, which can be described as the beginning of the show. Large quantities are still behind, and now they are beginning to fall. So what will happen next?

1. Why did the new wheat fall in price?

Since the beginning of this year, with the constant changes in the global grain market and the increasing cost of planting, the market's sentiment towards the grain market is generally high.

In particular, the fluctuation of the global wheat market is particularly prominent, so the wheat harvest period is much higher than in previous years.

Therefore, the price fluctuation of wheat is often collected.

Then, the listing of new wheat is in full swing, why did it suddenly fall? There are several reasons for the analysis:

First, the market fluctuated normally at the beginning of the year.

With the continuous listing of new wheat, the focus of the market has gradually shifted to new wheat, and many traders have begun to sell old wheat, because they are also worried that there is no good market for old wheat to continue to fall. Therefore, with the increase of listing volume and phased supply, enterprises have the opportunity to reduce prices.

Second, the price of new wheat is unstable, mostly in a wait-and-see state.

Although the collection of new wheat is high, it is a bit "valuable without market".

Why? Because the price of new wheat this year is much higher than that in previous years, the reference of previous years is invalid again, so no one knows what the market will be like this year, and they are all crossing the river by feeling the stones.

Therefore, although the heat of new wheat is high, the price of new wheat is getting closer and closer, and most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Third, the decline in the listing experience of Xinmai is also normal.

Different from other commodities, grain often faces centralized listing in the harvest season, which will lead to the phenomenon of staged oversupply in the market, and then the price will go down.

Looking back on previous years, most new grain markets will go through such a turbulent process, so it is also a normal phenomenon.

2. "High opening" is a foregone conclusion.

To be sure, it is a foregone conclusion that wheat will open higher.

Judging from the price of new wheat, the quality of wheat in Hubei is average, but the price on scale is also higher than expected, and other regions will extend upward on this basis.

For example, prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places will continue to rise. The purchase price of new wheat in Shandong fell in the range of 1.58- 1.6 yuan/kg, and the high point reached 1.6 yuan.

Although the new wheat has declined, the decline is expected to be limited:

On the one hand, the planting cost is "hard support".

From last year to this year, the price of chemical fertilizer soared, and with various management fees, the overall planting cost rose sharply.

The cost has risen significantly, which makes it difficult to support the price of wheat.

On the other hand, corn prices are also rising slightly.

Although the increase of corn is not too big, it is a small step from the overall trend.

In order to avoid wheat flowing into feed, the price of wheat must have a certain price difference with that of corn, so the upward price of corn invisibly supported the sharp drop of wheat price.

3. Go high or go high?

So, since the situation of "high opening" of wheat has been decided, which is next "high opening and high walking" or "high opening and low walking"?

Let's continue our previous judgment: the probability of wheat "opening higher and going higher" is very high.

1. According to the report on global supply and demand of agricultural products just released by the US Department of Agriculture, one of the important changes is to reduce the global wheat output from 2022 to 2023 to 774.8 million tons, with a reduction range of 4.5 million tons, which is the first reduction since 20 18-20 19.

It is estimated that the global wheat consumption will reach 787.5 million tons in the same period, while the annual inventory in the same period is 267 million tons, the lowest level in six years.

Once this report was released, the price of Chicago wheat futures rose by 6%.

Second, from the situation of wheat in various countries, it also meets the above expectations.

Ukraine's wheat production is expected to reach 1/3, and Ukraine is a "European granary", which is hard to make up.

India, the United States, France, etc. Due to weather and other reasons, it is expected that wheat production will be reduced to varying degrees. Although Russian wheat production is expected to increase, it is difficult to supply the world under sanctions.

Third, domestic pig breeding has been greatly restored.

Although the upward trend is weakening, with the help of seven rounds of purchasing and storage, the pig price basically fluctuates around 7-8 yuan/kg. Although there are different views on the "inflection point", from the perspective of productivity, it has little impact on feed demand.

Moreover, after June, the corn will stand on its own, which means that it is difficult for the wheat to have too much time to fall.

Therefore, when new wheat is listed, price fluctuation is inevitable, but it is expected that this fluctuation will not last long, and the probability of wheat "going higher" in the later period is greater.

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