International current affairs 8- 1020 14

There will be abnormal weather in the future, and it may be more frequent.

India is suffering from severe high temperature and drought, with the highest temperature approaching 50 C; Persistent "northern hemisphere" rare snowstorm and severe cold; The worst forest fire in recent 40 years has caused high temperature and drought in Russia; Heat waves swept across the northern hemisphere of many countries; The strong storm "singa" swept through Europe; In Uganda, massive mudslides claimed hundreds of lives; Severe avalanches ravaged the central and southern regions; In the past 8 1 year, the worst storms and floods caused the death of Pakistan 1800 people; Strong typhoon "Miyu" ravaged Southeast Asia; Innovating the rainstorm record in Rio de Janeiro.

|||| China has just used it for 20 10 years.

Looking around the world, extreme weather events are very frequent, and extreme weather is attacking cities and territories everywhere. In Australia in the southern hemisphere, it is free from the pain of the "once in 200 years" flood; At present, more than 800 people in Brazil have lost their lives in floods and mudslides; Floods left 36 million people homeless in Sri Lanka; Japan and South Korea have the lowest temperatures in decades.

Extreme weather is raging, and human beings are facing new challenges from nature. Facing the test, are the meteorological and scientific circles ready to make a deal?

Extreme weather forces

20 10

20 10 is the year with the largest rainfall and the hottest on record. This year, there are 18 countries with the highest temperature in history. Some parts of Europe and Australia have experienced unusually cold years.

Many people still remember last year's abnormal climate events: drought in southwest China, heavy rains in south China frequently hit South China, Hainan suffered rare precipitation, and heavy rainfall triggered Zhouqu mudslide. .......

-Guangzhou, the "5.7" torrential rain is still vivid. From May 6th to 7th last year, it rained 2 13. 1mm in three hours in Guangzhou. That week, there were three heavy rains, and the following week, the rainfall reached 440 mm at most, equivalent to a quarter of Guangzhou. Guangzhou's annual precipitation broke the record of a hundred years. "The scope of influence is wide, the intensity of heavy rain is large, the duration is long, and history is rare." Comments on Lin Liangxun, chief forecaster of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory.

"20 10 comprehensive climate impact assessment is a year for the poor." According to the report of the Provincial Meteorological Bureau, according to incomplete statistics, meteorological disasters in Guangdong Province caused direct economic losses of about142 billion last year, with 145 deaths and 4/kloc-0 missing. Among them, the weather in Guangdong has the greatest impact on the strong typhoon "Fanbia".

Since September 2 1 last year, "Fanbia" has swept through most parts of Guangdong and western Guangdong, causing serious mudslides, causing more than one million people to be affected, and hundreds of people were killed or missing; 16000 houses collapsed; 66.4 thousand hectares of crops in the affected areas; The direct economic loss exceeded 5 billion yuan. example

Southern China is the epitome of the whole country. Since 196 1, the "China Climate Bulletin 20 10" released a few days ago shows that the annual precipitation in China in 20 10 is 68 1 mm, which is more than normal1/kloc-. "20 10 has frequent extreme high temperature and heavy precipitation events with great intensity and rare history, which is the most unusual climate in this century!"

In fact, in the past year, extreme weather swept the world. India suffered from severe high temperature and drought, with the highest temperature approaching 50 C; The worst forest fire in recent 40 years has caused high temperature and drought in Russia; Nearly 8 1 year-old, the largest flood in history caused by heavy rain in Pakistan caused nearly 1800 deaths. ......

1On October 20th, the World Meteorological Organization issued a statement saying: "20 10 is the hottest year on record!"

According to the World Meteorological Organization's global average temperature ratio 196 1, the statistical data of 20 10 is higher than 1990, and the average temperature is higher than 0.53℃. Experts recorded three hottest years of global cooperation: 20 10, 2005 and 1998.

A large number of extreme weather has also become a prominent feature of 20 10. 20 10 is the hottest year since the wettest record was recorded, and * * * 18 countries have a history of high temperature. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in 20 10, the temperature in most parts of Africa, South Asia, West Asia and the Arctic was higher than that in previous years, and the highest temperature was recorded in many places, while parts of Europe and Australia experienced an abnormal cold in 10.

Experts from the World Meteorological Organization in Asral said that computer simulation studies show that with global warming, extreme weather events will occur more frequently and violently in the future, which will affect a wider range of fields in the past 100 years, such as heat waves, which may occur once every 20 years. By the end of this century, the extremely hot summer in 2003 did not seem very special in Europe.

"The characteristics of extreme weather in recent years, the global performance is that the frequency of occurrence is getting higher and higher, and the (record) of breaking the limit is getting bigger and bigger." In geochemistry, Peter Yao of Chinese Academy of Sciences noticed the researcher of the institute.

According to his analysis, continuing to break the extreme value is two-way, the highest temperature can be high and the lowest temperature can be lower and lower. "People will feel that especially hot summer, especially cold winter, is not just changing in one direction."

Around global warming?

Some experts say that the culprit must be La Nina.

The link between global warming and the increase of extreme weather events, but there is not enough evidence yet.

But for the reason, frequent extreme weather, the global scientific community can hardly reach an agreement.

For rigor, few scientists will draw conclusions frequently because of extreme weather. Because climate research is a statistical science, it takes 5- 10 years to reach a conclusion. Faced with frequent climate disasters, the meteorological community is obviously under great pressure. However, the reason and prediction of the meteorological community are still of no help. Compared with outside scholars, meteorologists are more taboo when answering questions such as extreme weather.

"The increase in extreme weather events is a fact, but whether it will lead to worldwide problems is still inconclusive. The meteorological community can't give an exact answer! " Under the questioning of Nanfang Daily reporter, Lin Liangxun, chief forecaster of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, admitted.

Song Lianchun, director of the 20 10 National Climate Center, said that the influence scope of climate is the complex system of atmosphere, ocean, ice, snow, land and rock. Anomaly 20 10 All fields and their interactions are closely related to our weather and climate anomaly and climate system.

Recently, floods, mudslides and many other southern hemisphere countries, Australia, Brazil and many experts believe that the culprit is La Nina phenomenon. La Nina refers to the persistence of unusually cold sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific (the opposite of El Ni? o), which means "little girl" (El Ni? o), also known as "anti-El Ni? o" or "cold event".

Kuang Yaoqiu introduced that the phenomena of "El Nino" and "La Nina" often appear alternately. But from the meteorological point of view, they often follow the drought and flood. The drought in southwest China occurred in China. Last year, it was probably caused by El Nino. El Nino disappeared after July 1 day, and La Nina began to form last year.

But meteorologists, they can influence climate change, but their influence is mainly concentrated in the Pacific Rim, and they can't fully explain why extreme weather events occur frequently on a global scale. Our product display

It is believed that the impact of frequent extreme weather events on global warming has attracted the attention of most scholars. However, there are no convincing results and conclusions about the mechanism of the whole scientific community.

Song Lianchun also believes that global warming has increased extreme events and strengthened the background. Global warming in the past century is not only reflected in the rise of temperature, but also in the rate of change of temperature rise, and extreme weather events have become more conclusive. In the past decades, extreme events have become more frequent, which will not only lead to high temperature, heat wave and extreme cold events, but also increase the intensity and frequency of heavy rain in cold areas and the intensity of storms in warm areas.

Will global warming lead to frequent extreme weather events? In Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, you should know the chief expert. This proposition can neither be proved nor falsified. "There is an inevitable connection between global warming and the increase of extreme weather events, but there is not enough evidence yet."

The impact of human activities on the environment is also fed back from some extreme weather events, which is regarded as punishing human natural rights.

What kind of extreme weather "bad boy" tests the government?

Experts from the World Meteorological Organization in Asral said that as early as 1990, climate models had predicted that global warming would lead to stronger and more frequent extreme weather events. First assessment report

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that in the future, it is expected that the frequency of high-temperature events will be more frequent and the frequency of cold events will be reduced. The impact of changing airflow and changing its coverage is also involved, but the report says it is difficult to predict.

In fact, extreme weather is like a naughty "bad boy", not only in China and Guangdong, but all over the world, and it is basically helpless.

Lin Liangxun analyzed that there are two kinds of abnormal weather: gradual meteorological weather and sudden meteorological weather. The former refers to the generation, for example, a cumulative process when the temperature was low last year, which made the annual temperature history in Guangdong earlier than 3℃-4℃ and caused drought. The latter refers to the occurrence of short-term disastrous weather, such as typhoon and rainstorm.

"For the gradual emergence of extreme weather, we will appear in the observation period during the process of accounting and supervision, and we can provide some predictions, forecasts and early warnings in time." Lin Liangxun said, but for the latter, it is still difficult for the meteorological forecasting department to accurately predict.

From a certain point of view, the history of human development is the process of human conquest of historical nature. With the development of human technology, it seems that nature is gradually tamed, but the impact on the environment is that there are many extreme weather events, which is regarded as a positive feedback from nature to human punishment. The relationship between man and nature is being repositioned.

In the new historical process, all countries in the world, including meteorologists and natural scientists, cannot sit idly by.

As a well-known expert in Guangdong's meteorological forecast, Lin Liangxun said that from the meteorological community of global climate change, we should capture the possible signals of some extreme weather events, such as what happened in La Nina and El Ni? o, climate change, and temperature changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which changed the thickness and area of the Arctic ice layer and what impact it had on human beings. Through these studies, "find some precursor signals, and then find the occurrence of extreme weather as soon as possible."

After forecasting and early warning, meteorological monitoring provides information to the public when events close to decision-making occur, including how to deal with such extreme weather events, only wind and rain, and also to prevent secondary disasters such as mudslides and landslides.

"Climate and climate change are increasingly becoming an important global issue." Song Lianchun said that although climate change is gradual, the impact of extreme weather and climate events is sudden and profound, and human society must assume the responsibility of "* * * and difference" and take urgent action to deal with the impact of climate change.

● Nanfang Daily reporter Huang Ying