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When hurricanes, floods, volcanic eruptions or other natural disasters occur, a few minutes and seconds of warning may save lives. Therefore, scientists are committed to applying the latest technology to predict the possible time and place of natural disasters. They are also studying how to best analyze and communicate when they get this information.

1On September 29, 1998, Hurricane George brought heavy rain and strong winds at a speed of 160 km/h to Haiti, Dominica, Puerto Rico and several Caribbean islands, causing serious damage, and then landed in Biloch Creek, Mississippi. Although hurricanes kill hundreds of people in the Caribbean, they rarely kill people in the Gulf of Mexico.

This result is quite different from what happened in 1900, when a strong Gulf of Mexico hurricane unexpectedly hit Galveston, Texas, killing at least 6,000 people.

The greatly improved hurricane warning explains the difference in influence between the two hurricanes from the beginning of the 20th century to the end of the 20th century. The residents of Galveston did not receive any warning about the coming hurricane, while the residents of Bilohe received a warning a few days ago, which enabled them to take comprehensive disaster prevention measures.

Although the residents of Bilohe are grateful for the disaster warning, some residents in New Orleans, Louisiana are not so satisfied. The day before Hurricane George landed, some forecasters speculated that the hurricane might hit New Orleans. Since most of New Orleans is below sea level, the city is likely to be flooded, and officials in charge of crisis management must start evacuating people long before the hurricane strikes. However, it costs a lot of money to evacuate people: shops are closed, tourists leave, and citizens have to make mistakes in disaster prevention. The mayor of New Orleans predicted that it would cost more than $50 million to prevent Hurricane George. After Hurricane George passed through New Orleans, some citizens questioned the value of hurricane prediction-if it cost so much money.

Disagreements about the early warning of Hurricane Georgia reflect some complexities related to disaster prediction. Disaster prediction is just a procedure to provide scientific information for government officials and those groups that respond to prediction.

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