What's the weather like in the whole country during the National Day? 13 will there be an inflection point when Typhoon Kujira moves northeast?

According to the cloud image of Fengyun satellite, the tropical disturbance in the northwest Pacific is developing again. In addition to Typhoon Kujira on 20 13, new typhoon embryos have also appeared. According to the monitoring data, 98W is located at 22. 1? N 147.2？ E, the maximum wind speed is 20 kt, and the lowest central pressure is 1000 hpa, so the development is still relatively good.

At the same time, the central structure has also changed significantly, and the Japan Meteorological Agency has also been upgraded to TD. Is this typhoon 14 this year? Chen Hong? ? Judging from this development trend, there is indeed a probability of success, but the Japan Meteorological Agency has not made any response. At the same time, 98W was greatly influenced by Typhoon Kujira 13, which drove it to follow the movement. Therefore, it is developing to the central Pacific and is likely to be combined with extratropical cyclones.

According to GFS simulation, it will become an extratropical cyclone after maintaining the short pressure of 1000hpa, so the probability of 98W is relatively high, but it will become an extratropical cyclone after maintaining it for a short time, which is also shown by the European Numerical Center. Ultimately, it depends on the Japan Meteorological Agency. Face? Ok, let's look at the changes in this later period. At the same time, the judgment standard is mainly wind speed, and we will continue to follow up later.

Let's take a look at 13 Typhoon kujira. Typhoon 13 has reached 10 and is moving northeast at a speed of about 40 kilometers per hour. Seen from the cloud image, it is already collapsing, and whether it can reach the strength of 1 1 remains to be determined, but the strength is not low now, and it has no influence anywhere.

According to China's forecast, the No.3 typhoon "Kujila" is expected to reach the intensity of 1 1 on the evening of September 29th, and turn into an extratropical cyclone on June 5438+1 October 1, but from the analysis, it is estimated that June 65438. At the same time, after typhoon 13, we saw the development of 98W. If there is a typhoon, it will not affect any area. Just looking around. However, during the National Day of 65438+1 October1National Day, we saw that there might be a new typhoon, and a typhoon embryo of 1003 hectopascals would appear in the central part of the northwest Pacific Ocean, which is expected to reach the pressure value of 997 hectopascals on June 3rd of 65438+1October. According to the pressure value, this may be a new typhoon.

So what? National day typhoon? Or in the pipeline, it is expected to reach 972hpa in 654381October 6 after enhancement, and according to the existing situation, it is also moving in the direction of Typhoon Kujira, which will not affect any area. What if? National day typhoon? If it appears, it will not affect any area, depending on whether the subtropical high will change in the later period. At the same time, after the National Day, GFS has simulated the possibility of several consecutive typhoons, which shows that the typhoon active season of 5438+00 in June is not over yet, and everyone should pay attention to the development of the sea area. Although the cold weather in China is urgent now, the change of ocean area is still restless, mainly because the development of La Nina phenomenon has taken effect and its appearance has been confirmed.

Judging from today's marine monitoring index area, the development of La Nina is relatively clear, and it is still stable between -0.8 degrees and-1 degree, indicating that the situation of strong development is still relatively large, and it is not clear whether it will continue to decline for the time being, but in any case, La Nina phenomenon has an impact on both the ocean and the land, and it is a phenomenon that affects the global climate. Generally speaking, La Nina phenomenon will lead to the global temperature drop. However, due to the strong momentum of global warming, it is not clear whether the current warming climate will be reversed this year, but the World Meteorological Organization says the probability is slightly lower. Therefore, we can only continue to focus on observation, and the intensity of La Nina phenomenon also determines a change in winter climate in China.

Many people say that it is already very cold in autumn. Is it even colder in winter? Indeed, according to the data released by China, in the next 10 day, there will be many cold air affecting the northern region, and most of the northern region will have a temperature drop of 4 ~ 6 C, and the local temperature will drop to 8 C. The minimum temperature in northern North China and eastern Inner Mongolia will drop below 0 C. Therefore, frequent cold air activities really worry everyone. But the climate also fluctuates, and it may not be cold in a few days. Therefore, whether it is cold winter or warm winter, we can only wait until the end of winter and see the data to be sure. It's not that cold winter is cold winter, and warm winter is warm winter. At the same time, there may still be strong cold air influence in warm winter years, so we can continue to wait for climate change.