Shiyan weather forecast accuracy 15 days

The accuracy of Shiyan weather forecast 15 days cannot be determined specifically, but it is basically higher than 50%.

The accuracy of weather forecast is usually determined by many factors, including data source, meteorological observation, model algorithm and so on. In general, the accuracy of short-term weather forecast (1-3 days) is relatively high, which can reach more than 80%. With the increase of forecast time, the accuracy of weather forecast will gradually decline.

For the weather forecast of 15 days, its accuracy is relatively low, generally around 50%. This is because long-term weather changes are influenced by many complex factors, including atmospheric circulation, ocean temperature, topography and so on, which are difficult to predict.

It should be noted that the accuracy of weather forecast will be different in different regions and seasons. Some meteorological departments constantly improve the technology and model of weather forecast to improve the accuracy. In addition, the combination of real-time observation and continuous correction of model output is also helpful to improve the accuracy.

Matters needing attention in watching weather forecast

1. View multiple sources: Different weather forecasting organizations may use different data sources and model algorithms, so you can view the forecast results of multiple organizations to obtain more comprehensive information.

2. Pay attention to accuracy: To understand the accuracy of the current forecast, you can refer to the historical accuracy rate or related evaluation indicators. Generally speaking, the short-term prediction accuracy is high and the long-term prediction accuracy is low.

3. Pay attention to the time range: confirm the time range of the forecast so that you can make reasonable arrangements when planning activities or trips. Some weather forecasts provide hourly forecasts, while others only provide daily weather profiles.

4. Combined with real-time observation: Weather forecast is based on the results of model and data analysis. Combined with real-time meteorological observation, the current and future weather conditions can be judged more accurately.

5. Pay attention to the geographical location: the weather conditions in different areas may be different, so make sure that the forecast you check is consistent with your area.

6. Pay attention to special weather phenomena: For typhoon, rainstorm and other special weather phenomena, we need to pay attention to the early warning information issued by the meteorological department to ensure our own safety.