How did the content in the weather forecast come from?

The content of weather forecast is inferred by empirical extrapolation, similarity, statistical data and physical analysis.

1, empirical extrapolation method

According to the past moving paths and intensity trends of various weather systems on the weather map, their future positions and intensities are inferred. This method is effective when the movement and intensity of the weather system do not suddenly change, or when the weather system does not regenerate or die. But when it suddenly changes or the weather system is alive or dead, the forecast is often not realistic.

2. Similar to situational method

From a large number of historical weather maps, some similar weather conditions are found and summarized into certain patterns. If the current weather situation is similar to that before a certain model, it can be predicted with reference to the later evolution of the model. Because similarity is always relative and can't be exactly the same, this method often leads to errors.

3. Statistical data method

Using historical data, the occurrence, development and movement of various weather systems in different seasons in history are counted, and their average moving speed is obtained, so as to find and forecast forecast indicators (such as cyclone generation and typhoon turning). This method cannot be applied to examples that have never appeared in history or examples that are fast and slow.

4. Physical analysis methods

Firstly, the physical factors of the birth, decline, migration and strong change of the weather system are analyzed, and then the weather forecast is made. This method usually works well. However, when the simplification and assumption of the motion equation reflecting these physical factors are not realistic, it will often lead to prediction errors, even far from the actual situation.

Extended data:

Weather forecast is divided into regional weather forecast and local weather forecast according to the forecast scope. According to the needs of customers, there are daily public weather forecasts and professional weather forecasts. According to the length of aging, there are short-term, medium-term and long-term weather forecasts. Meteorological offices and stations timely and accurately issue weather forecasts, especially severe weather forecasts, through various channels, which have played an important role in protecting people's lives and property and promoting economic development.

At first, weather forecasting technology developed rapidly with the development of telegraph. Until the early 1950s, the weather forecast was based on the principle of meteorology. With the development of computing technology and detection technology, in addition to the conventional weather chart method combined with mathematical statistics method for forecasting, meteorological radar and satellite detection data are applied to forecasting business, and numerical forecasting methods are developed.

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