Far sea weather

94W has disappeared, and the preliminary simulation may reach 16. There is no such strength now, so we should stop editing and disappear. For this year's typhoon forecast, it is slightly more than strong. Let's look at the initial simulation data. At least on April 28th, 94W showed signs of enhancement.

Since 2020, there has been little news about typhoons. Although several typhoon embryos were formed, they all disappeared in the change of ocean area. At the end of April, changes in the Pacific Northwest and the South China Sea reappeared.

According to the data of the United States Joint Early Warning Center, the embryo of typhoon 1 was formed in April, with typhoon code 94W and center position of 4.7? N 135.5？ E, after the generation, the maximum wind speed increases to 20 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 hpa. From the data point of view, this standard was reached only after 94W, indicating that typhoon embryos are still relatively good as a whole. Of course, the Japan Meteorological Agency has not yet responded, and even the cyclone label has not yet appeared.

According to the satellite cloud picture, the overall development area of 94W is not bad, and the ocean temperature is also suitable for brewing, but the center of 94W is not? Convergence? Rising, so there is still room for change, but the wind speed and pressure change greatly, which may enhance the possibility of 94W becoming a typhoon. Let's look at the data given by the supercomputer.

According to the simulation of GFS, the embryo of Typhoon 94W may have formed earlier, and it is estimated that the pressure will reach 995 hectopascals on April 30th. According to the pressure value, typhoon 1 will probably form in 2020. Of course, this is only from the pressure value. At this time, it is necessary to compare the wind speed, and it is possible to name it when it basically reaches18m/s.

According to the simulation of GFS, the path simulation of typhoon embryos has changed greatly. At first, it was predicted that it would turn to the north along the coast of the Philippines, but under the influence of the subtropical high, it may move westward, and it is predicted that it will land in the Philippines, finally enter the South China Sea and finally disappear in the South China Sea. According to the simulation of GFS, the peak pressure of 94W is 979hpa.

It is equivalent to a typhoon of the order of 12, so the intensity simulation forecast is not large, and it is lowered a lot. The original forecast may be several times that of the super typhoon of the magnitude of North 16, but it has changed now. This is what we have always emphasized. Before the typhoon forms, we just need to refer to it.

I need to remind you here that many people may see a low-pressure system on the left side of the simulation map, which is located in the Bay of Bengal, so it does not belong to the northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, but it is basically the same as a tropical cyclone and will not be named typhoon. Just pay attention to this. If this cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal and makes landfall, it may affect the southwest of China. Generally, it will bring some rainy weather, but it will be obvious only when this low-pressure system is developed. The European numerical center also shows that the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is likely to develop and land.

Looking back at the embryo of typhoon 94W in the northwest Pacific, it is likely to become Typhoon Bumblebee 1 according to the simulation trend of GFS, and it may strengthen on April 30th, but the simulation results of European Numerical Center (EC) are still on the low side for the time being, so one is optimistic and the other is not.

And the simulation of strength is different. EC can only see tropical depression mode for the time being. How did this develop? Only the two can be referenced, and the simulation paths of different mechanisms are different. NAVGEM simulation also entered the landing and entered the South China Sea, while GEFS still turned north. This is the general situation.

Generally speaking, again, reference is the main thing. As for the typhoon trend in 2020, according to the news released by the Climate Center, it is expected that the number of typhoons landing in China this year will be slightly higher and the intensity will be stronger, so it is an important topic to pay attention to the changes of typhoons at all times.

Moreover, with the change of climate, we also know that in the development of global storms, they are all developing as predicted by scientists, that is, the global temperature is rising, the ocean storms will become stronger and stronger, and the frequency will become higher and higher. All these indicate that there may be more and more climate anomalies today, and human beings may only improve the environment to further alleviate them.