Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Weather inquiry - What season is the trough of soybean futures? What are the main factors?

What season is the trough of soybean futures? What are the main factors?

How to analyze the seasonal market of agricultural products futures

* * * Agricultural products are a fixed seasonal cycle of sowing, growing and harvesting every year, and it is this unique seasonal change of supply and demand of agricultural products that makes the trend of price fluctuation moving in the same direction in certain specific periods of each year very obvious. Generally speaking, according to this seasonal feature, we can roughly divide the trend of agricultural products into several different stages: sowing growth stage, harvest season, off-season sales and peak sales season. Because futures prices are the vane of spot prices, their fundamental influencing factors are the same, and the trend is also basically linked. Therefore, we take several varieties as examples to compare and analyze their futures price trends from the perspective of seasonal influencing factors:

First, take soybean varieties as an example. According to the laws of nature, major soybean producing countries in the northern hemisphere start sowing in April every year and harvest in September of that year. Starting from June 5438+ 10, major soybean producing countries in the southern hemisphere began to sow again, and harvested in April and May of the following year. From this planting growth cycle, it can be concluded that July and August each year belong to the low season of global soybean supply, and the soybean is not connected, so the consumer demand is strong, so the price is mostly on the high side; Every year around 1 1 is the peak season of global soybean supply, with sufficient spot supply and many low prices in a year. It is not difficult to verify this rule from the long-term trend of CBOT soybean market in the above figure.

Careful observation of the seasonal trend charts of CBOT and DCE soybeans in recent years shows that there is a strong correlation between soybean prices at home and abroad. The main reason is that the adjustment of people's diet structure has caused a surge in soybean demand in China since 2000, and domestic soybeans are far from meeting market consumption. Coupled with the high oil yield of imported soybeans, the number of imported soybeans has increased significantly, which has led to an increase in the linkage of soybean price trends at home and abroad; Secondly, we can also find that: from 2000 to now, the annual seasonal high point mostly appears in May-August, mainly because March-May is the peak season of sales, and July and August are the off-season, so it is not surprising that the high point appears in this time period; From September to165438+1October, the soybean harvest season will begin. Due to supply pressure, the price was at several lows during the year. After the output was determined, with the increase of consumption and the decrease of inventory, the price began to rise. However, every February is a holiday, the market is light, and food prices usually fall. These laws well verify the seasonal fluctuation trend of soybean prices. At present, it is in August, which is the off-season of supply. Due to the severe drought in Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area in China, the domestic soybean production reduction is basically a foregone conclusion. The weather in the soybean producing area of the United States is also very hot and dry recently, and the soybean weather market appears again. It is expected that there will be a wave of rising prices before the soybean harvest season comes. Therefore, according to this feature, it can be estimated that soybean may form a short-term high before the supply pressure in September-165438+ 10 month.

Looking at corn varieties, the growth cycle of corn and soybean is similar. As can be seen from the above figure, the most obvious feature of corn is that the price mostly falls from midsummer to harvest. Due to the uncertainty of corn production in the new year, the price in July often reaches the highest price in a year. Even in the year when prices began to fall before mid-July, prices can continue to fall if the harvest prospects are good. Every year 10 is the harvest season. Due to the centralized listing of a large number of corn, the market supply pressure is the greatest, and the price often falls to the lowest level in a year. Then, with the passage of time and continuous consumption, the stock of corn is getting less and less, and the price is also changing. The Agricultural Biomass Energy Industry Development Plan (2007~20 15) issued by the Ministry of Agriculture (hereinafter referred to as the Plan) puts forward that in the future, China's agricultural biomass energy industry should vigorously develop rural biogas, actively develop crop straw to solidify gasified fuel, moderately develop energy crop development strategies, and determine development priorities and industrial layout according to local conditions. This has poured cold water on the domestic speculation of developing fuel ethanol by using corn in the early stage, and the corn futures price has continuously dropped from above 1700 yuan/ton to below 1500 yuan/ton. Due to the recent drought disaster of crop land in Northeast China after transitional suppression, corn futures prices have risen "out of season". However, on August 10, there will be a "Jilin Province 2007 Rotation Local Grain Reserves Bidding and Sales Fair", when 654.38+10,000 tons of provincial-level corn reserves will be sold, which will be a pressure on the corn futures price. Before the arrival of the peak supply season, the sharp rebound of corn was very small, and there was limited room for growth.

Finally, it was transferred to wheat varieties at home and abroad. Taking winter wheat in the northern hemisphere as an example, the sowing period is from early stage (after cold dew) to late stage, and the harvest period is from late May to early June. Wheat has two obvious seasonal tendencies: one is accustomed to falling from late winter to spring before the harvest season. In most years, wheat prices will experience a seasonal weak period in 1 and February due to the influence of capital withdrawal. And because July after the winter wheat is listed every year is generally the peak season of wheat supply, and the price is the lowest in many places in a year; Another trend is that from the low point of harvest season to the peak season of wheat consumption in autumn or early winter, the price tends to rise, and the price will reach the annual high due to consumption around the Spring Festival. Under the pressure of centralized listing of new wheat in June and July this year, the futures price of strong wheat reached a seasonal low, and then rose strongly at the end of July.

Looking at the long-term influence of seasonal factors of the above three varieties on price changes, although active futures trading can weaken the obvious price movement trend, the price fluctuation trend in the same direction in a specific season is still very obvious. It can be concluded that the price trend of agricultural products is mainly affected by two fundamental factors: supply and demand. The growth cycle of agricultural products is seasonal, so every year from sowing to the eve of harvest, due to the uncertainty between the inventory of crops in the old year and the output of crops in the new year, the futures trading with predictive function is often prone to large fluctuations with the speculation of weather, pests and diseases in the market. Subsequently, with the arrival of the harvest season, the new year's output of various varieties of agricultural products gradually became clear, and it was inevitable that the market began to face seasonal supply pressure. If it is a high-yield year, the supply pressure is the heaviest and the price is the weakest. If the production is reduced in the first year, the price will easily go out of the anti-seasonal rising market; With the passage of time after the listing of new grain, futures prices are more and more sensitive to demand, inventory and other factors, and the trend is more and more obvious. Especially in the peak consumption season, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is deepening. At this time, the market is becoming more and more popular, the positions are increasing rapidly, and the futures prices are often the strongest. Of course, there are also many speculations about new concepts. Therefore, the seasonal factor is an important factor that we should consider when making the agricultural product management plan.

Our analysis of seasonal price trends of the above varieties is based on the long-term statistics of various varieties. Although it reflects the seasonal law of agricultural products dominated by supply and demand as a whole, there are occasional phenomena. For example, the off-season increase in soybean production in 2003 was mainly due to the fact that China imported a large number of American soybeans at that time, but the output of American soybeans was greatly reduced. The consumption ratio of soybean stocks in the United States once hit a record low in more than 20 years, and it was in a state of serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market is full of expectations that the demand will be in short supply in the future, and the seasonal harvest pressure will be completely eliminated, which will lead to the soaring price in the harvest season. In addition, unexpected factors such as politics and economy in some countries and the influence of some new concepts can easily lead to the anti-seasonal trend of prices. This reminds us that when analyzing the trend of related agricultural products, we should not simply operate according to its seasonal trend, but also pay attention to other stage factors from time to time and make an objective evaluation.

In short, the seasonal characteristics of agricultural products are prominent under the premise of the basic balance of global supply and demand. When the supply and demand are seriously out of balance, the seasonal characteristics are often easily submerged, and the price is easy to go out of the anti-seasonal market. Seasonal characteristics are the inherent attributes of agricultural products, and seasonal analysis can provide us with the short-term development trend of prices, but to grasp its long-term trend, we must also consider other major supply and demand factors.