Is it warm winter or cold winter this year?

One reason for the cold this winter: La Nina incident.

From April to May this year, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences used the earth system simulator of scientific instruments to predict that La Nina events will occur for three consecutive years in 2022-2023, providing accurate prediction and early warning for relevant departments. The latest forecast results show that the current La Nina state will continue and develop in autumn and winter of 2022, reaching its peak in winter.

The second reason for the cold this winter: global warming.

At the end of September, the deputy director of the National Climate Center said at the regular press conference of China Meteorological Bureau that under the background of global warming, the frequency of warm winters has increased since 1986. In the winter after La Nina, the temperature was very low for several years. Under the synergistic influence of La Nina event and warm Arctic Ocean, the cold air activity in China is likely to continue to be strong this winter, which is prone to staged low temperature and extreme cold events.

Three reasons for the cold this winter: experts' latest prediction

It is predicted that the temperature in some parts of northern China is slightly lower this winter, which may lead to staged low temperature due to the influence of staged cold air, and the possibility of extreme cold wave outbreak is high; Disasters such as low temperature, freezing, rain and snow may exist in some areas in the south, so it is necessary to be vigilant and raise awareness of prevention.

There are many reasons that affect the weather:

There are many factors and levels that affect temperature and climate, such as:

Physical reasons that directly affect the ground temperature: such as solar radiation, geothermal radiation, inflow of cold air, and sinking of upper air flow, all of which will directly affect the ground temperature;

Atmospheric circulation: subtropical high, Siberian cold high, etc. These are all weather systems in the atmospheric circulation, which will indirectly affect the temperature;

External factors of the atmospheric system: external forcing factors of the climate system such as La Nina and snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will affect the atmospheric circulation and indirectly affect the temperature through the long-term accumulated slow change effect.