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Severe cold is a manifestation of global warming.

Yang Xuexiang published on February 2, 2008 10: 17: 18 Guangming. Com- bright watch.

Extreme cold is a manifestation of global warming. This famous saying in the meteorological field tells the confusion and helplessness of the current meteorological science theory. The politicization of climate issues has not brought prosperity and development to the world meteorological science. On the contrary, global warming has become a curse, which restricts meteorologists' thinking and ideas and prevents them from making a correct judgment on the real natural process through rational thinking. Restoring the natural process of climate change and determining the degree of human intervention is the current weather.

An important task of the world: the regulatory role of natural forces can not be ignored [1].

First of all, the view that blizzard events are related to global warming.

According to Xinhua News Agency, under the trend of global warming, why is it particularly cold this winter? Meteorologists explained that the frequent occurrence of extreme weather just shows that the trend of global warming remains unchanged. Gao Anning, chief forecaster of Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, said that global warming is a general trend and will increase meteorological extreme events. The extreme cold weather process that happened nationwide is still a manifestation of global warming trend [2].

Yang Guiming, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, predicted in an exclusive interview with this newspaper that the large-scale and high-intensity low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather in the south will last until the beginning of February. He believes that in a sense, "extreme weather events are caused by global warming." Scientists believe that global warming will increase extreme weather. Such a large-scale continuous low-temperature rain, snow and freezing rain weather process belongs to extreme weather events. According to the above explanation, global warming may be one of the factors. Specifically, according to the global average atmosphere, it is warming, but it is not warming on average. Because the global atmospheric energy is basically conserved, and the atmosphere is constantly flowing, and the temperature in some places is particularly high, then the opposite situation will occur in other places-extreme weather events such as extremely low temperature, low temperature, rain and snow, freezing and so on. In this sense, extreme weather events are caused by global warming [3]

65438+1At 6 pm on October 27th, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a red warning of blizzard. China Meteorological Bureau launched a three-level emergency response to the early warning emergency plan for major meteorological disasters. Jiao, director of the Department of Forecasting and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Bureau, said: "The Central Meteorological Observatory issued the red warning signal for the first time since it set up the national meteorological disaster warning signal. This is the strongest extreme low temperature rain and snow freezing weather event in 50 years. " Faced with the raging snowstorm, many people are full of confusion. Isn't the climate getting warmer? "This is another manifestation of global warming. Now the days of sunny and favorable weather have decreased, and extremely cold and hot weather have increased. The overall warming trend has not changed. " Wu Dui, chief expert of Guangdong Meteorological Department and Guangzhou Tropical Marine Meteorological Research Institute of China Meteorological Bureau, explained. According to meteorologists, heavy snow is also a manifestation of climate warming [4].

Second, the view that blizzard events have nothing to do with global warming.

Lu Longhua, member of the Academic Committee of China Academy of Meteorological Sciences and director of the Polar Meteorological Research Office, explained to this reporter: "As far as the climate itself is concerned, it changes every year, and there will also be climate anomalies and extreme weather events. Just like the warm winters in Beijing and other places in previous years, climate change is related to the whole atmospheric circulation. In terms of climate, there is always a period of drought, a period of waterlogging, or cold or hot. " Lu Longhua said that although it is difficult to link the freezing rain and snow weather in the south with climate change and global warming, extreme weather events may increase after global warming. "It's hard to say how many human factors have caused extreme weather events," Lu Longhua said. "But for human beings, we are a planet. Before we fully understand the truth, we should strengthen self-discipline, reduce pollutant emissions, protect nature and be kind to the earth [5]. "

Washington, DC, 65438+1October 3 1 Special Report Some international experts believe that this extreme weather is related to La Nina, which is a rare phenomenon in southern China in recent days. Eugene Burleigh, one of the largest scientific entities in the world and a senior meteorologist of the American Geophysical Society, believes that the rain and snow weather in China is not directly related to global warming, but may be related to La Nina phenomenon. "In general, the global climate is unbalanced, and it is difficult to explain abnormal weather with a single theory." He said. An authoritative person of the World Meteorological Organization also said on the 30th that extreme weather in China is related to La Nina. The World Meteorological Organization released a report on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2007, saying that La Nina phenomenon has formed and may last until the first quarter of 2008. In the current La Ni? a phenomenon, the seawater temperature in northern Australia and western Indonesia is lower than usual, while in the typical La Ni? a phenomenon, the seawater temperature in this area will be higher than usual. Therefore, WMO predicts that the climate change trend in some areas may fluctuate abnormally. It is reported that this round of La Nina phenomenon has triggered many abnormal events around the world. Japanese experts believe that the record-breaking highest temperature in Japan last August was related to La Nina phenomenon. A large number of dead birds were found on the beaches of Peru last year. Experts believe that due to La Ni? a phenomenon, the sea water became cold, and fish left their usual positions, causing birds to lose food and die. African media reported that La Nina phenomenon may have led to the floods in West Africa last year [6].

Sydney, Reuters, 65438+1October 3 1 Scientists said that the snowstorm that killed more than 60 people in China was not directly related to global warming, but an extreme weather event caused by the severe winter climate and La Nina phenomenon. PennyWhetton, an Australian climatologist and one of the authors of the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Agreement on Climate Change, said that China's explanation of the snowstorm climate was correct, and the bad weather facing China was not directly related to global warming. "Blizzard weather is a natural result. Every few years or decades, conditions leading to extreme weather phenomena will appear, "Whetton told Reuters. "As the world is warming, this extremely cold weather may not appear at a higher frequency or intensity." However, with the warming weather in China, the cold northern China may face more snowstorms, because the rising atmospheric humidity will create weather conditions similar to those that lead to snowfall in southern China. DavidJones, head of the climate analysis department of the Australian National Climate Center, said: "The duration of snowfall may be shorter, but there may be more serious snowfall in winter. He agrees that the snowstorm weather in China is not directly related to global warming, and points out that floods, heat waves and fires are the direct manifestations of the rising global temperature and precipitation [7].

Third, the necessity of scientific debate.

Global warming will increase extreme weather, but extreme events can be divided into extreme cold events and extreme hot events. If global warming increases extreme cold events, can the global warming trend continue?

"Severe cold is a manifestation of global warming". If it doesn't happen,

From the mouth of meteorologists, people will mistake it for a philosopher's famous saying about the transition door between hell and heaven: fallacy constitutes the ladder of science. When Chinese people encounter difficulties, the doctrine of the mean or speculative philosophy arises at the historic moment-try every means to find communication channels for opposing things and tinker with popular authoritative theories. Black is another manifestation of white; Cold is another manifestation of warmth; A white horse is not a horse; White dogs are black, and so on. Primary school teachers will definitely regard "the raging cold current is a manifestation of global warming" as a sick sentence and give it a zero. That is, the authorities are confused and the bystanders are clear. The misunderstanding of global warming has caused people to be caught off guard, and even lost their basic rational thinking.

Is global warming an eternal law? If not, it can be tested according to the changes in practice. Practice is the only criterion for testing truth, and misinterpretation and sophistry are redundant. If yes, please give the corresponding historical evidence: to overthrow the law of climate change for hundreds of millions of years with a hundred-year climate history, the theory of global warming not only needs to rewrite history, but also faces the severe test of more and more natural changes.

The natural process of climate has a clear hot and cold standard, below which it is cold, and above which it is hot. If it is said that "severe cold is a manifestation of global warming", then under the trend of global warming, cold prevention and high temperature prevention can not be neglected. Isn't this nonsense? According to this reasoning, Snow Mountain Glacier is the highest state of global warming, because it is a place where cold is raging.

Facts speak plainer than words. According to the latest comprehensive research results, the global environment is undergoing great changes, and it is now in a period of great transformation, said the China scientist who once went to the North Pole on the "Snow Dragon". During the transition period, the short-term climate change will increase year by year, and the disastrous climate may increase. According to reports, the study of glaciers, loess and deep-sea sedimentary records shows that the climate change law on the earth takes 654.38 million+years as a cycle, of which 1 10,000 years is a warm period and 90,000 years is a cold period. Now the earth is in the stage that the warm period of 10,000 years is coming to an end and it is gradually transitioning to the cold period. In terms of speed, the earth changes rapidly from the cold period to the warm period, but slowly from the warm period to the cold period. Scientists believe that there is still a global warming trend in the near future, which is mainly related to the artificial greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide in the biosphere. The data show that the increase of carbon dioxide concentration on the earth in the past 150 years has exceeded the change of the earth in the past 65438+ million years. This is mainly caused by human factors after the industrial revolution. Therefore, in the climate transition period, if the natural factors of the earth make the temperature cold, it will be offset by the increase of artificial carbon dioxide concentration and other factors; The temperature will not drop significantly, and will even continue to rise slightly. In the 1970s, some experts predicted that the cold period of the earth was coming, and as a result, the temperature rose instead of falling. According to experts, during the climate transition period, the range of global climate change with the cycle of 10 will be doubled, so the possibility of sudden low temperature period after several years of high temperature cannot be ruled out. Therefore, while protecting the transitional environment, people should also be alert to prevent the occurrence of various variable climates [8].

Eugene Burley, a senior meteorologist of the American Geophysical Society, believes that the heavy rain and snow weather in China is not directly related to global warming, but may be related to La Nina. "In general, the global climate is unbalanced, and it is difficult to explain abnormal weather with a single theory." Obviously, the greenhouse effect is not the only factor controlling global change.

Jiao, director of the Department of Forecasting and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Bureau, said: "In June and February 2007, there were obvious signs of warm winter in China, but after entering June 2007, the temperature in most areas suddenly dropped, which was the same as that from February 2006 to February 2007. These two examples show that after global warming, after the warm atmosphere interacts with the ocean surface, there will be an abnormal phenomenon, that is, extreme weather phenomena will increase greatly, and a place will suddenly become very cold at some time [4]. "

Global temperature change is a long-term debate, and fluctuation is a periodic law [9]. "In 2007 1 1 and 1 two months, there were obvious signs of warm winter in China. However, after entering 1 this year, the temperature in most areas suddenly dropped, which was the same as that in Europe, Canada and the United States from 1 in 2006 to 1 in 2007. These two kinds of sudden cooling of climate need corresponding cooling mechanism to understand, and Ji Lin's "Tidal Temperature Regulation Theory" and Guo Zengjian's "Deep Sea Earthquake Temperature Regulation Theory" deserve world attention [10].

Jiao, director of Disaster Reduction Department of China Meteorological Bureau, director of National Meteorological Center and director of Central Meteorological Observatory, said in an exclusive interview on June 5438+0 that the rare and persistent abnormal situation of atmospheric circulation in Europe and Asia and the current La Nina event are the important reasons for the large-scale low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters in China. Since the beginning of winter, the abnormal distribution characteristics of precipitation in China are very similar to the winter climate characteristics after the strong La Nina event in history. This shows that the current La Nina event is one of the important reasons that affect the disaster weather. Since entering La Nina state in August 2007, the SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific has developed rapidly, and it has been lower than normal for six consecutive months in June 2008. The analysis shows that this La Nina event has the fastest development since 195 1 year and the strongest cumulative intensity in the first six months. "It is expected that this La Ni? a event will last at least until the end of spring and may become a strong La Ni? a event." In addition, the rare, persistent and stable abnormal atmospheric circulation in Europe and Asia is the direct cause of this disastrous weather. "On the whole, this low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather is rare since the founding of New China, with the characteristics of wide range, high intensity, long duration and heavy disaster [1 1]."

We need rational analysis and data comparison of global cold events. Global warming is not a panacea for all meteorological diseases [12], and specific problems need specific analysis. The existence of different viewpoints is inevitable, and scientific argumentation helps to communicate with each other, eliminate the false and retain the true, eliminate the rough and extract the essence, and complement each other from the outside to the inside.