After the drought, there must be a big earthquake? Is it credible?

Will there be a big earthquake after the drought?

Another hot topic appeared: "There must be a big earthquake after the drought? Is it credible? "

This summer, rare high temperature weather occurred in many places in China, and the temperature even exceeded 40 degrees in some places. The effect of this continuous high temperature weather is that the water level in the whole country drops and leads to a large-scale drought.

So will there be a big earthquake after the drought? In fact, this statement can't be absolute, and there is no such absolute statement in science. Then let's first understand the origin of this drought and earthquake theory!

Geng Qingguo, a famous geologist in China, made a statistical analysis of the data in the 1970s based on the droughts and earthquakes that occurred in China from 1956 to 1970.

He found that whenever a large earthquake of magnitude 6 or above occurs, the epicenter area often suffers from drought in the previous 1 to 3 years. Moreover, the larger the drought area, the longer the drought time and the higher the earthquake magnitude in the future. Therefore, he put forward a set of early earthquake theory to predict possible earthquakes.

According to this rule, Geng Qingguo predicted the Haicheng earthquake of 1975, especially the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. He also published a monograph "The Relationship between Drought and Earthquake in China" in 1980, which attracted the attention of the industry.

According to the theory of drought and earthquake, the direct cause of earthquake is the concentrated release of energy in the crust. Although this release process is short, it takes a long time to nurture energy. This process is inevitably accompanied by various physical and chemical reactions such as heat, electricity and magnetism. This process will inevitably lead to abnormal changes in the low-altitude atmosphere.

Due to these changes, low pressure will be formed, which will lead to high temperature and drought, to a great extent, to the regulation of atmospheric circulation, to floods, and finally to earthquakes.

From the Qin Dynasty in 23 1 year BC to 197 1 year when Geng Qingguo put forward the theory, in the history of more than 2,000 years, there were 69 large earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above in North China and Bohai Sea, and only two of them did not experience drought, from which the theory of drought and earthquake was obtained.

But inferring from these data and conclusions, it can only show that the relationship between earthquake and drought is accidental, not absolute. Therefore, there is no scientific and practical basis for saying that "there must be a major earthquake after a drought".

It can only be said that drought is a possible phenomenon of earthquakes, but it is not an absolute phenomenon, and it may just be hot weather.

As early as 20 1 1, Zhang Yongxian, then deputy director of the earthquake prediction department of China Seismological Network Center, publicly stated that using drought and climate anomalies to predict earthquakes has a high false alarm rate and is difficult to be used for pre-earthquake prediction, and there is no necessary connection between drought and earthquakes.

Therefore, it is not credible to say that there must be a major earthquake after the drought, and scientific practical basis is needed.

The collision between plates on the earth has caused the dislocation and rupture of plate edges and plates, which is the main cause of earthquakes. There are three main types of natural earthquakes: tectonic earthquakes, volcanic earthquakes and subsidence earthquakes.

There are about 5 million earthquakes on the earth every year, that is to say, tens of thousands of earthquakes occur every day. However, most of them are too small or too far away for us to feel. There are about a dozen or twenty earthquakes in the world that can really cause serious harm to human beings every year; Earthquakes like Tangshan and Wenchuan, which can cause particularly serious disasters, are only about once or twice a year.

It can be seen that earthquakes, like wind, rain, thunder and electricity, are natural phenomena that often occur on the earth.

Secondary disasters caused by earthquakes, such as fires, floods, toxic gas leakage, the spread of bacteria and radioactive substances, may also cause tsunami, landslides, collapses, ground fissures and other serious disasters.

Therefore, for earthquakes, what we should do more is to improve the seismic grade of buildings and do a good job in defense, rather than predicting earthquakes.