What kind of disaster did the historically rare cold wave in 2011 bring to those countries and regions?

Qasim Asrar, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Weather Research Program

Last year’s global drought and extreme cold were rare in history. The head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Weather Research Program pointed out< /p>

Extreme weather that occurs once in a century may become a once-in-20-year event

The heat wave that used to occur only once in 100 years may become one that occurs once in 20 years. By the end of this century, the extreme heat experienced during the European summer of 2003 may no longer seem so special.

Although Ren Fumin, chief expert of the National Climate Center, pointed out that the current atmospheric circulation situation is very different from that during the 2008 rain and snow freeze disaster, people still have concerns about whether the rain, snow and freeze disaster will reappear. concern. What makes people even more confused is: Didn’t they all say a warm winter? Why is it still so cold in winter? After experiencing two impressive cold waves at the beginning and end of last year, Dr. Qasim Asrar, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Weather Research Program, pointed out in an interview with this reporter: 2010 is likely to go down in history. hottest year. Disasters that occur once in a century may become "once in twenty years." By the end of the century, some extreme weather events that now seem rare will no longer seem so special.

Severe cold, floods, and high temperatures have taken turns around the world. Last year, China suffered the most destructive mudslide

Our reporter: You once said, “We have never seen extreme weather in 20 years. Events happened so frequently and intensively. "So what were the extreme weather events that impressed you most in 2010?

Qasim Asrar: There were many extreme weather events in 2010. Here are the main ones: In the winter of 2009~2010, there were many extreme weather events in Europe, Asia and North America. The Northern Hemisphere is enveloped in widespread extreme cold. Across the United States, hundreds of daily minimum temperatures were set. In Europe, heavy snowfall disrupted air and land transport. In contrast, things have slowed down a lot in the Arctic and Canada.

In the summer of 2010, Pakistan suffered the worst floods in history, affecting more than 20 million people. June 2010 was the hottest month in Moscow since modern meteorological records began. Temperatures exceeded the long-term average by as much as 7.8°C. High temperatures from July to mid-August caused large-scale forest fires to break out in parts of Europe in Russia, and harmful gases affected tens of millions of people.

Whether it is the heat wave in Russia or the floods in Pakistan, they are all related to "blocking events" in the atmospheric currents in the northern hemisphere, which keep weather patterns static and prevent heat and moisture from dispersing.

In many places in China, high temperatures broke historical extreme records, so China had the hottest summer in history. Floods, landslides, and mudslides also wreaked havoc on the economy. In August, Zhouqu, located in northwest China's Gansu Province, suffered the most devastating mudslide on record in China.

Cold winter, drought, and heat are all related to the "blockage" of the atmosphere. 2010 may be the hottest year in history

Our reporter: What is the cause of these weather phenomena?

Qasim Asrar: The extreme weather in the northern hemisphere winter (severe cold in Europe, America and Asia) and the warming of the Arctic are related to large-scale atmospheric disturbances, which in turn are related to the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. Movements, as well as "blocking events" in the northern hemisphere's atmospheric currents, keep weather patterns static in some countries.

The extreme heat and drought in Europe and Eurasia this summer, and the heavy rainfall experienced by Pakistan during the monsoon season, are also related to the "blocking" of the atmosphere. It effectively blocks the heat dissipation from Russia and the evaporation of moisture from Pakistan, "locking" them in specific areas, making the heat and moisture become more intense.

As for other extreme weather events, the causes are more complicated. It is difficult to attribute a single extreme weather event to climate change. But it's important to note that climate scientists do predict an increase in extreme weather events, especially extreme heat events, because of climate change. 2010 is expected to enter the top three hottest years on record and may become the hottest year.

A single cold wave cannot be attributed to climate change. It is expected that high temperatures will become more frequent and cold temperatures will decrease.

Our reporter: Does the recent widespread cold wave in Europe indicate that global change is a factor? Is the warm trend slowing down?

Qasim Asrar: It is difficult to attribute a single extreme event to climate change. Europe is currently repeating the same climatic conditions as the previous winter, as mentioned above. It is the result of complex atmospheric phenomena, combined with warming factors in the Arctic Ocean and polar regions. WCRP (Global Weather Research Program) studies each event in the hope of understanding why it happened so we can create a computer model to make future predictions more accurate.

Our reporter: You mentioned that WCRP uses computer models to study and predict atmospheric changes and the frequency and form of extreme weather events in the next 50 to 100 years. How bad will the current computer simulation scenarios be? ?

Qasim Asrar: As early as 1990, climate models were already predicting stronger and more frequent extreme weather events on a warming Earth. The first assessment report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) states that high temperature events will occur more frequently in the future. Cold events are expected to occur less frequently at that time. The impact of changing air flow and changes in its coverage has also been implicated, but is considered difficult to predict, the report said.

It is difficult to predict the extreme weather events this year. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions can reduce extreme weather

Our reporter: Can you tell us whether 2011 will be the same as or worse than 2010? Severe extreme weather event?

Qasim Asrar: At this stage, it is impossible to predict what extreme climate events will occur in 2011. However, the Intergovernmental Symposium on Climate Change has predicted that climate change will definitely increase the number of extreme events, especially heat waves and droughts. For example, a heat wave that occurred only once in 100 years in the past may become one in 20 years. By the end of this century, the extreme heat experienced during the European summer of 2003 may no longer seem so special.

Our reporter: You once mentioned that another task of WCRP is to "guide people to prevent extreme weather." Can you tell us what measures should be taken to prevent such extreme weather?

Qasim Asrar: The Earth will continue to warm due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, which may lead to an increase in meteorological extreme events in the future. Even if all greenhouse gas emission valves are "turned off" now, we cannot stop the global warming trend, but we can at least slow down the pace of warming and the resulting increase in extreme climate events. The World Meteorological Organization is building an international framework for climate services to provide relevant information and services to adapt to climate change. Climate research, co-led by WCRP and its sister research project ***, is currently drafting quantitative assessment methods to assess and predict the risk of future extreme climate events. In addition, countries need to strengthen research and strengthen observation and monitoring capabilities in order to predict and reduce the vulnerability of relevant systems.

Recent extreme weather

At the beginning of the new year, widespread low-temperature rain and snow caused Hunan, Guizhou, Guangxi and other places to fall into a familiar traffic jam.

Prior to this, the three northeastern provinces, central and eastern Inner Mongolia and southern my country experienced widespread rain and snow this winter. Guangdong suffered the lowest temperature for the same period in 35 years of history.

European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, and Italy have also experienced heavy snowfalls one after another, and the central and northern United States has also been hit by blizzards.

In the recently announced selection of the "Top Ten Domestic and International Weather and Climate Events in 2010" sponsored by the China Meteorological Administration, severe drought, heavy rainfall, mudslides, and sandstorms occupied a prominent position on the list. Among them, The top three domestic weather and climate events are "the severe drought in the southwestern region that broke the meteorological record", "the severe flash flood and debris flow in Zhouqu, Gansu", and "the worst snow disaster in Xinjiang in the past 60 years".

The top three foreign weather and climate events in 2010 were "India suffered severe high temperature and drought, with the highest temperature reaching nearly 50℃", "Rare cold snowstorm froze the 'Northern Hemisphere'", "Severe high temperature and drought" Caused forest fires in Russia."