New energy vehicles such as "people and cars" are more of a "new" meaning.

The "new energy vehicle" in the spotlight is not "new" in a strict sense.

Long before the birth of the first gasoline car in the world, Scots invented electric cars in the1830s. Even in 1900, the number of electric cars on American roads was almost twice that of gasoline cars.

It is in recent years that electric vehicles have really been crowned as "new". From June 5438 to April this year, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 229 1 10,000 and 2.222 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8% and a market share of 27%.

It is worth noting that although the growth rate is still strong, it has obviously slowed down compared with the past two years. In 20021year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased by 157.8% year on year, and increased by 93.4% year on year.

This is somewhat different from people's impression of continuous blowout. In fact, with the maturity of users' consumption concept, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is falling back to a reasonable range. New energy is not for new energy. In the context of switching between oil and electricity, rhythm is more important than the speed of a brain.

There is still a huge demand space for fuel vehicles.

Although car sales are still increasing, since the beginning of this year, the market has been full of more uncertainties. The sudden price war storm, the fierce differentiation between strength and weakness, far exceeded expectations.

If the direction is chaotic, the future will be even more blurred. In particular, the dispute between oil and electricity has reached the point of parting ways. Only the theory of electric vehicles and the theory of banning the sale of fuel vehicles are rampant. To a considerable extent, the automobile market has fallen into the binary opposition thinking of either oil or electricity and specious.

In my opinion, whether it is a gasoline car or a tram, the essence of the problem is user choice.

It is very necessary for fuel vehicles to survive and develop in China, a vast market, both in terms of supply and demand.

According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)" issued by the State Council, it is estimated that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles; Strive for 15 years of continuous efforts to make pure electric vehicles become the mainstream of newly sold cars.

Obviously, the development of the market far exceeds the expectations of policy makers, but the rapid development of trams does not mean that they can completely replace oil tankers in a short time. In the foreseeable future, trams have the strength to partially replace oil tankers, but not completely. In the future, the coexistence of oil and electricity will remain the main theme of the automobile market.

It is necessary to consider the following three factors:

The first is the diversified needs of users.

China has a vast territory and diverse consumption levels. From Sanya, Hainan at 0/8 degrees north latitude/KLOC to Mohe, Heilongjiang at 53 degrees north latitude, the land span is 5,000 kilometers. Based on the physical characteristics of trams, it is impossible to guarantee the endurance in extremely cold weather.

Perhaps it can also be understood that the demand difference of automobile consumption is as big as the consumption gap and house price gap between first-tier cities such as Beishangguang and other third-and fourth-tier cities. For a considerable number of regional users, oil trucks are always just needed.

Secondly, new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, but trams have ceilings.

China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy in China is expected to exceed 9 million this year, but it is impossible to expand indefinitely in the future. Based on the diversified consumer demand in China, the ratio of trams to tankers is likely to reach 60:40. At the beginning of this year, Gao, an academician of China Academy of Sciences, proposed that the power battery capacity would be periodically surplus in 2025.

Third, based on the sustainability of development and the safety of industrial chain.

On the one hand, for most car companies, except Tesla, there is generally no profit. Whether building a car with capital or selling a car at a loss, the current new energy vehicle model is obviously unsustainable; On the other hand, China has a huge production capacity of more than 40 million fuel vehicles and a more diversified supply chain system. Whether it is based on the health of the industrial chain or the safety of industrial workers, it is not suitable for the rapid retirement of fuel vehicles.

Needless to say, if the whole life cycle energy saving and emission reduction cannot be realized, the significance of developing new energy vehicles will be greatly reduced if the vehicles are not charged with green electricity during use. Based on the unique energy supply situation in China, how to provide green electricity in a sustainable way is another big proposition.

Sweep away uncertainty in certainty.

No matter what the purpose is, the idea of "banning oil cars and promoting trams" is just a specious false proposition.

Whether it's an oil tanker or a tram, the relationship between them is by no means either one or the other, but more of an energy supplement than an upgrade.

In fact, after hundreds of years of precipitation, fuel vehicles are relatively mature in both product technology and volume scale, and are reaching the peak of technology, which can be said to be a century-old achievement and has a corresponding big market. Judging from the development trend in the next five or even ten years, it is an inevitable trend that the automobile market in China will continue to show the coexistence of fuel and electric power. Of course, in the face of the squeezing effect from the future, traditional fuel vehicles also need technical upgrading and transformation.

On the road from oil to electricity, FAW-Volkswagen, the largest tanker company in China, has set a useful example.

It is amazing integrity-accumulating and improving in certainty; Stick to the bottom line in uncertainty and fully verify it with practice.

In the first four months of this year, the new energy vehicle market accounted for 27%, but the other side of the coin means that 73% of consumers still choose oil vehicles, which means that there is a big market of nearly/kloc-0.5 million passenger cars in the whole year. No matter from the perspective of market or from the perspective of being responsible to consumers, it is necessary to stabilize the oil car market and provide good services.

This coincides with the strategy of FAW-Volkswagen. In the field of fuel vehicles, Volkswagen's investment in internal combustion engine technology will reach its peak in 2025. In this process, through the technical layout of small-displacement engines, hybrid power and new energy, we will actively promote technological iteration and rejuvenation.

Not long ago, the brand-new Tanko and the 1.5T Evo2 engine mounted on the brand-new Tanyue are the latest masterpieces of the German Volkswagen small displacement engine. In terms of fuel consumption, the economic operation area of the engine has been expanded by 80%, and 80% of low fuel consumption vehicles have been added. The fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is still very fuel-efficient, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is 0.35 liter lower than that of 1.4T engine. In terms of power, equipped with Porsche "automatic shift" turbocharger, the response speed of the turbine is increased by 50%, and it automatically switches to high gear at low speed, making the speed faster.

In FAW-Volkswagen's view, the performance of fuel engine, whether in thermal efficiency or energy saving, is far from exhausted. This is by no means empty talk. In the past few years, FAW-Volkswagen's "double carbon" journey has achieved remarkable results through improving and upgrading the fuel engine.

In 2022, the average fuel consumption of FAW-Volkswagen was-103500. In contrast, 202 1, the data is-567,700. In the previous year, this figure reached-1.32 million.

In terms of more direct new energy points, the accumulated new energy points of FAW-Volkswagen in 2022 were160,600, which was the first time from negative to positive compared with-1.37 in the previous year.

Obviously, the evaluation of carbon neutrality of an enterprise can never be based on one dimension of electric vehicles. Facing the fuel vehicle market under the new pattern, FAW-Volkswagen firmly adheres to the user orientation, chooses a "lasting" innovation that meets 70% of users' needs-a fuel vehicle with high energy consumption and low consumption, taps the potential to increase efficiency on the basis of the previous success of internal combustion engines, makes further progress, and finally consolidates more controllable certainty in the uncertain future.

In the eyes of onlookers, this is the pragmatism and responsibility of responsible "carbon neutral" measures.

Oil-electricity dual drive can be stable and far-reaching

If the continuously improved efficient fuel engine is a trump card in the hands of FAW-Volkswagen, then with the deepening of the electrification strategy, the ID family of pure electric series is becoming another trump card of the brand.

At the end of last year, just 20 months after the first product went on the market, FAW-Volkswagen ID accumulated sales. CROZZ family reached 654.38 million+units. This achievement is the fastest among all pure electric vehicle brands. The total sales volume exceeded 654.38+million, which also means that the electrification transformation of FAW-Volkswagen has taken a key step.

But this is really just the beginning. Faw-Volkswagen is making great efforts to give ID. The more advanced feeling of the family, the much-anticipated ID.7 VIZZION will accomplish this mission. "Starting from the latest ID.7 VIZZION, we are expanding our electric vehicles to a higher level market."

In my opinion, ID.7 VIZZION makes people obviously feel that the public has deeply thought about the user's scene needs and given a more convincing electrification solution. "How to build an electric car, how to build a Volkswagen electric car", the public has a better understanding of this issue.

The essence lies in: bringing the successful experience of the previous internal combustion engine into the field of new energy, and realizing the coordinated development with the mode of "oil-electric dual drive". On the one hand, we will continue to deepen the research and development of fuel vehicle technology and accumulate and improve it in certainty. On the other hand, on the uncertain new energy track, focus on three dimensions: electrification innovation transformation, high-end upward breakthrough and digital intelligence transformation, and verify the value of new energy vehicles with practice.

Not long ago, FAW-Volkswagen Foshan Branch signed a new energy vehicle leap-forward development project. The general manager of FAW-Volkswagen said that the FAW-Volkswagen Foshan factory will be turned into "full-process digital intelligence?" High quality? New energy "model library.

In our opinion, only the whole process of digital factories can create real digital products; Only the green energy saving at the source of production is truly carbon neutral.

I want to find out why it happens and sort out the green chain of each link. Such new energy vehicles are more of a "new" meaning.