Weather trend in Changsha

Less than a week before the Spring Festival, flour enterprises, corn deep processing enterprises and oil plants have stopped working one after another, and the prices of corn, peanuts, wheat and rice have also entered a stable state, but I think the prices of corn, peanuts, rice and wheat after the year are more worth looking forward to.

I. Corn price

At present, the overall price of corn has remained stable, with Shandong corn deep processing enterprises quoting 1.42- 1.52 yuan, North China1.4-1.5/yuan, and Northeast China 1.05-65438+.

Corn prices stabilized mainly because with the approach of the Spring Festival, deep processing enterprises began to have holidays one after another, and the demand for corn weakened.

On the other hand, the snow is slippery, and the remaining vehicles of deep processing enterprises are at a low level in the morning.

However, I think it is still worth looking forward to the corn price after the year:

1. One of the characteristics of the market this year is that the channel inventory is particularly low. One consequence of this is that it will form a powerful reservoir function and quickly form a bottoming trend of corn prices. Before the festival, traders can't afford to collect grain, and after the festival, there will be a trend of grabbing grain.

2. After the holiday, the peak of epidemic infection ended, enterprises resumed work, and the demand for food and beverage recovered, which helped to increase the demand for corn deep-processed products.

3. The insiders believe that the price of live pigs may rise against the trend after the holiday, and the recent increase in the price of eggs and broilers will help maintain the high demand for corn feed.

4. Grain sales increased before the Northeast Festival, and the surplus grain at the grass-roots level was relatively low.

Although the post-holiday corn price is worth looking forward to, it can not be ignored that the post-holiday is also a critical period for grassroots farmers to realize their cash. Many farmers need to cash in before spring ploughing and prepare seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. This will affect the upward trend of corn prices, and may even lead to a short-term decline in corn prices.

Secondly, the price of peanuts.

The price of Jilin Fuyu 308 coin rice is 5.00-5.25 yuan/kg, Liaoning Jinzhou Xinbaisha coin rice is 5.20-5.25 yuan/kg, Shandong Junan Baisha coin is about 5. 10 yuan/kg, and Shandong Xintai Baisha rice thresher is about 5.40 yuan/kg.

Compared with last week, the price of rice in Baisha, Henan Province increased by 200-400 yuan/ton, in Northeast China by 208 100-200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong by 100-200 yuan/ton.

Years ago, peanut prices ended in a small shock, mainly due to the following logic:

1, the market released the holiday effect, and the delivery was obviously accelerated before the year.

2. In the past, traders were out of stock, but recently, traders have a certain demand for replenishment, which pushed up the price of peanuts.

3. Oil plants hoarded goods years ago, and the total purchases and sales of the two major domestic oil plants years ago were 260,000-270,000 tons and 6,543,805 tons respectively.

With the approaching of Spring Festival and the improvement of epidemic situation, the demand for edible peanuts has been released.

The price increase of peanuts ended years ago, and the industry generally has high confidence in the price of peanuts after the year. On the one hand, although the oil factory has stockpiled goods, due to the floating acquisition strategy, the acquisition volume is not large.

On the other hand, the purchase and sale links are mainly based on pre-holiday positions, and the total inventory level is lower than that of the same period last year.

The above two points created certain conditions for the price to remain high or even rise at the beginning of the year.

Third, the price of rice.

According to reports, with the "peak" and "over-peak" of epidemics in various places and the approach of the Spring Festival, the annual taste has quietly increased, and the terminal rice consumption has also recovered. Recently, the rice market has fluctuated slightly and steadily.

Among them, the purchase price of long-grain japonica rice in Harbin, Heilongjiang is 2935 yuan/ton in Liaoning, 2708 yuan/ton in Hubei, 2760 yuan/ton in Changsha, Hunan, and 4460 yuan/ton in Hangzhou, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Although the fundamentals of domestic rice supply exceeding demand have not changed at present, many factors have quietly changed. It is expected that the rice market will not be too pessimistic after the holiday. The basic logic is as follows:

1. After the holiday, the demand for rice is expected to increase. Not only will the warming of catering drive the demand for rice, but the price difference between wheat and corn and rice will also be further widened, which is conducive to improving the competitiveness of rice in feed raw materials and increasing the alternative demand for rice at the feed end.

2. In 2022, affected by the weather, the yield of mid-late rice decreased by 4.45 million tons. In addition, the acquisition of new rice has progressed rapidly this year. The agency predicts that the inventory of new rice of grassroots farmers will decrease by 4 million tons year-on-year, and the supply pressure of new rice will decrease year-on-year.

3. The annual minimum purchase price of rice dropped significantly compared with the previous year, and the overall rice inventory of the enterprise decreased compared with the same period of last year.

4. With the rising trend of international rice price, the price difference between domestic rice and imported rice is narrowing, the price advantage of imported rice is decreasing, and the rice import volume will decline.

Based on comprehensive analysis, it is predicted that the trend of rice in 2023 may be stronger than that in 2022, but the domestic rice inventory is generally high, and its price is difficult to rise like that of wheat.

Fourth, the price of wheat.

Recently, various flour enterprises have announced the stopping time of wheat harvest, among which Bozhou Wudeli stopped harvesting on1October 17 and started purchasing on1October 28+65438.

Shandong Qingyuan Food1October 19 stopped collecting money, and1October 27th started purchasing.

Dezhou Yihai 65438+1October 17 closed,1October 28+65438 resumed acquisition.

The overall price of the wheat market is mainly stable, mainly because the demand side is drawing to a close and the wheat market is cooling down.

The industry predicts that the price of wheat is expected to improve in 2023. After the festival, people's life will gradually return to normal, students will start school, workers will go back to work, the catering industry will operate normally, the demand for flour will increase, the surplus grain in the supply-side market will be less and less, and the supply of wheat in the market will gradually tighten. Both of them will promote the upward trend of wheat prices.

However, the rise of wheat price depends on the recovery of market demand, the mood of selling grain at the grass-roots level and the auction of wheat.